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[Closed] nl 200 QQ - resteal

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($267)
Hero ($264)
CO ($217)
BTN ($583)

Dealt to Hero Q♥ Q♦

fold, BTN raises to $6, fold, Hero raises to $17, BTN calls $11

FLOP ($35) 3♦ 5♥ 4♠

Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

TURN ($75) 3♦ 5♥ 4♠ 2♣

Hero bets $40, BTN raises to $84, Hero folds

this hand was played without the benefit of stats for me. However, villain probably has 250 hands on me. in a previous hand villain had turned a better set against me and got my stack. My guess is he will put me on a reasonably loose restealing range (I have 10% 3bet to steal from bb), so he is probably capable of calling at least the top 7-8%(?) of his steal range against me, especially as we are 130bb deep. if that is right, this gives a range of 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ he may call all pps, in fact.

On the turn, I'm pretty sure I have to fold although if villain puts me on a hand like TT, he will know I have to give up to action on this board, so it is possible that I am being outplayed by a worst hand occasionally. equilator gives me only 40% against that range so I don't mind too much folding - just don't like the idea of getting outplayed :)

Just wondered whether, since my hand is quite vulnerable to a check-raise, it is even worth betting the turn at all?

Thanks


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I think checking the turn is better than betting.
If he has a hand you beat he will either fold or raise (there are a lot of Ax in your range, you probably cbet this board up to 100% of the time).
In case he folds you don't win anything, in case he raises you're folding the best hand sometimes.
And there are still some Ax in his range.

I usually don't like c/calling OOP with the intention to fold to another bet too much, but in this case imo it should be ok:
If he is bluffing the turn he has to be afraid we decided to go for a inducing-line with an overpair and Ax.
Although he could assume he gets us off an overpair sometimes he's usually also afraid of Ax.
Also his floatingrange might easily be much wider than only Ax on this board since we cbet a lot but we rarely have a hand.

There are also arguments for just check/folding the turn: he might be afraid of Ax and not bluff in the first place, but since you assume his callingrange might be up to 8% and people are not calling too many Axs like A9s and worse imo a c/f is a bit too weak.