Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($267)
Hero ($264)
CO ($217)
BTN ($583)
Dealt to Hero Q♥ Q♦
fold, BTN raises to $6, fold, Hero raises to $17, BTN calls $11
FLOP ($35) 3♦ 5♥ 4♠
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20
TURN ($75) 3♦ 5♥ 4♠ 2♣
Hero bets $40, BTN raises to $84, Hero folds
this hand was played without the benefit of stats for me. However, villain probably has 250 hands on me. in a previous hand villain had turned a better set against me and got my stack. My guess is he will put me on a reasonably loose restealing range (I have 10% 3bet to steal from bb), so he is probably capable of calling at least the top 7-8%(?) of his steal range against me, especially as we are 130bb deep. if that is right, this gives a range of 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ he may call all pps, in fact.
On the turn, I'm pretty sure I have to fold although if villain puts me on a hand like TT, he will know I have to give up to action on this board, so it is possible that I am being outplayed by a worst hand occasionally. equilator gives me only 40% against that range so I don't mind too much folding - just don't like the idea of getting outplayed
Just wondered whether, since my hand is quite vulnerable to a check-raise, it is even worth betting the turn at all?
Thanks