[Closed] NL200 overpair to c/r, cb and river bet

I like it. You can't fold flop imo, without knowing that villain does this only with a set.

You obviously have showdown value (but not a very strong hand), so a decent opponent might have another go at bluffing you off your hand on the river.

I also call, I think.

If vilain uses his brain he never bluff river when you check the turn...

Imo it's already a close decision on the flop. Without reads you can definitely opt for a fold to his c/r, but this also depends a bit on how the average player on your site plays - if there's an aggro gameflow overall and people like to bluff-c/r dry boards a lot this becomes more of an easy call.

On the turn I'd bet half pot for several reasons:
Value is actually not the most important one because it's hard for the opponent to have a worse hand here.
Actually the bet is to protect your hand and because you usually don't win any money from bluffs.
As Falber mentioned after you call the flop and check back the turn you made it very clear to your opponent that you have SD-value, so he's not going to bet his air.

And last but not least: Balancing. Especially against opponents who bluff-c/r a lot on dry boards like this you want to be able to float them when you have thin bluffcatchers/air, so you need to protect your bettingrange on the turn a bit.
What this means is, that if you check back everything but sets and KK+ on the turn, the opponent knows you don't have much of a hand most of the time once you bet and therefore you can't bluffbet your hand there anymore.
Of course you could check back with your entire range on the turn to take down the pot on the river, but I prefer to bet right away because the result is the same and you get the opponent to fold his equityshare immediately.

As played the river is a raise-or-fold decision, since you can't really represent anything (you would probably not shove it in with AQ here although it might be good) I'd rather fold.

As Falber mentioned after you call the flop and check back the turn you made it very clear to your opponent that you have SD-value, so he's not going to bet his air.

quick question: if this is correct, then why doesn't a check on turn make sense? It means that when villain bets the river, we know we are not being bluffed and can safely fold.

What I mean is: on the turn we are either ahead or behind. If we check, and villain never bluffs the river then either the river goes check/check and we usually win $ or it goes bet/fold and we comfortably fold the worst hand.

If we bet the turn, we can't get called by worse hands, can we, given the flop action?

(I agree with the balancing argument - just trying to understand the basics)
thanks

Originally posted by Tim64
quick question: if this is correct, then why doesn't a check on turn make sense? It means that when villain bets the river, we know we are not being bluffed and can safely fold.

What I mean is: on the turn we are either ahead or behind. If we check, and villain never bluffs the river then either the river goes check/check and we usually win $ or it goes bet/fold and we comfortably fold the worst hand.

Correct, but if we bet the turn we take down the pot and prevent him from hitting his overcards.
Furthermore he might still be bluffing the river sometimes. Most likely not often enough to make a call an option for us, but sometimes he could decice to bet his non-SD hand again - compared to betting the turn ourselves we're making a mistake in any case because we fold the best hand now and then.

Originally posted by Tim64
If we bet the turn, we can't get called by worse hands, can we, given the flop action?

No we probably cannot because there are no worse valuehands in his range.
But again, this means we're not winning anything by checking back on the turn either.