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[Closed] Overpair + 2nd nut FD vs LAG

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NymXXL
Joined: 20.05.2008

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($111.91)
CO ($87.34)
MP ($121.89) - 27/21/60 % AFr
Button ($140.65)
BB ($93.90)
SB ($100.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $3, MP calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 10, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $13, MP raises $30, Hero raises to $103.91 (All-In), MP calls $73.91

River: ($225.32) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $225.32

I think he never flops a set here. He might flopped a flush already but his turn raising range is too wide to fold with overpair + 2nd nut flush draw. He is tricky and knows that i migt be betting with only a FD which is probably folding to a turn raise. Or am I wrong?


3 replies
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Make it $6 on the flop for value.
The betsize on the turn is ok although you could make it a bit bigger as well.

Before I answer let me ask you first:
What do you think his callingrange preflop is?
What parts of this range raise, call or fold on the flop?
What parts of it raise, call or fold on the turn?


NymXXL
Joined: 20.05.2008

Well his preflop calling range is pretty wide : 22-TT, TJ-TA,JQ-JK, (maybe QK + QA since many players prefer to 3bet with polarised range and AQtype hands is never called by worse hands vs good player or 4beted with better or some random bluffs) 34s-9Ts, 46s-8Ts and A2s-A9s.
His flop calling range is 66-99, some ,,20,, hands with one card in spade, T8s-TQ, he might be calling with flush already (sometimes he raise), some pair with FD, 45s-56s and since he is pretty laggy he might be floating with random trash.
His flop raising range are sets, Ahigh FD (maybe K high), AT,KT and already made flush (sometimes), set and some random bluffs. All others hands are folded.
On the turn he is folding non Ahigh FD, 45-56s, 66-99 and some floats.
His calling range - Ahigh FD,AT,KT, TJ,TQ,T9,T8s, sometimes flush and maybe pair + weak FD.
He is raising the turn with flush, 66,56s, and some hands which floated flop and are basically bluffs. So I think hir turn raising value range consists of only few combinations of 46s,67s,87s,89s,68s,79s,JQs,TQs,JAs and maybe AQs ,66 .I hold K in spade so it reduces amount of already made flush type hands maybe by 3 combinations. So there are very few turn value raising combinations (something about ten combinations).


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by NymXXL
Well his preflop calling range is pretty wide : 22-TT, TJ-TA,JQ-JK, (maybe QK + QA since many players prefer to 3bet with polarised range and AQtype hands is never called by worse hands vs good player or 4beted with better or some random bluffs) 34s-9Ts, 46s-8Ts and A2s-A9s.

I agree with the range you give him, but I think we should also add JJ and some combinations of QQ+.

Originally posted by NymXXL
His flop calling range is 66-99, some ,,20,, hands with one card in spade, T8s-TQ, he might be calling with flush already (sometimes he raise), some pair with FD, 45s-56s and since he is pretty laggy he might be floating with random trash.

I disagree with this.
Imo he folds 66-99 mostly, usually when he calls he has a :spade: to go with it.
You should also specify further those hands with one spade:
It's A :spade:x for the most part, so AJ, AQ which have 3 combinations each and AK which has 2.
Maybe also AsTx, but in this case he might also raise the flop due to the strength of his hand, let's say he has all 3 combinations of those, too.
There are also some other Tx with a spade to go, but I think every SC 23-98 is folding because it's so weak and your UTG-range is strong.
Furthermore I don't expect him to float too much, again because your UTGrange is so strong.

Originally posted by NymXXL
His flop raising range are sets, Ahigh FD (maybe K high), AT,KT and already made flush (sometimes), set and some random bluffs. All others hands are folded.

Agree.

Originally posted by NymXXL
On the turn he is folding non Ahigh FD, 45-56s, 66-99 and some floats.
His calling range - Ahigh FD,AT,KT, TJ,TQ,T9,T8s, sometimes flush and maybe pair + weak FD.

Except that I think he doesn't have non-Ahigh-FD w/o pair and floats, I agree.

Originally posted by NymXXL
He is raising the turn with flush, 66,56s, and some hands which floated flop and are basically bluffs. So I think hir turn raising value range consists of only few combinations of 46s,67s,87s,89s,68s,79s,JQs,TQs,JAs and maybe AQs ,66 .I hold K in spade so it reduces amount of already made flush type hands maybe by 3 combinations. So there are very few turn value raising combinations (something about ten combinations).

While I agree that he has few valuecombinations, without any reads I think we can't assume he has too much air here.
And even if he has air we don't accomplish anything by shoving it in on the turn.

Therefore I'd call his raise on the turn.
The plan is to c/f blank rivers because our call on the turn looks pretty strong, so he has to put us on an overpair or a flush and is therefore not going to bluff too much.

On spade rivers shoving ourselves doesn't accomplish too much as it might look to him like we bet/called with the NFD so we won't get much value, but I see players spazzing out there sometimes because they think they can get us to fold an overpair (which they could, would we call overpairs w/o FD on the turn), so I c/c with the K high flush - btw we also established they would either raise the NFD on the flop or call flop+turn, so they usually don't have A :spade:x.