NL200 77 IP middle pair face shove

08.09.2010, 18:36 0

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Known players:
[tg]UTG1$98.75:///////;UTG2$447.80:///////;MP1$200.00:///////;MP2$213.55:///////;MP3$34.00:///////;CO$211.30:///////;BU (Hero)$280.30:///////;SB$472.45:///////;BB$226.10:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BU with 7:d, 7:s.
6 folds, Hero raises to $6.00, SB folds, BB calls $4.00.

Flop: ($13) 5:s, 2:c, 8:c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.00, BB raises to $26.00, Hero calls $18.00.

Turn: ($65) T:h (2 players)
BB bets $52.00, Hero calls $52.00.

River: ($169) 8:h (2 players)
BB bets $142.10(All-In), Hero calls $142.10.

Final Pot: $453.2.

Results follow:

BB shows a pair of eights(Qc Ac).

Hero shows two pairs, eights and sevens(7d 7s).

Hero wins with two pairs, eights and sevens(7d 7s).

He looks solidly tight pre but really very aggressive. 14/12/150hands / 3bet 7% / Af is infinite flop / infinite turn / 2 river. W$SD flop when bet or raise 0/3 + same on turn and river. And he is -20BB /100 losing player.

His c/r flop sounds like set or some draw. Then he pushes so hard on turn and river that it made me call ♦ I was convinced that he has busted draw (maybe with worse pair) often enough to justify my call. In reality, if he is bluffing 1/3 of the time, then my call is EV+. And I had some read for the dynamics of the moment and timing tell - he was betting too quickley.

How often do you call down opponents like this? Do you think this is good in long-term to call down if you smell he is bluffing?

:spade:

2 replies

_Anonymous_

09.09.2010, 07:55 0

Hi,

wow! nh, sir!
Against a 14/12 guy, even if he is loosing player, I'd not downcall that.
Of course he polarizes his range on river very much between nuts (FH, trips) and air (busted FD, SD[76]).
The 8 is basically a good card for you as it makes 8x less likely but villain can play 22, 55, A8, TT maybe T8, 98 that way.
Maybe he freaks out with hidden KK or AA, dunno.
Of course, if you have a/the read that he is bluffing a lot with busted draws, then you can call him down especially in position. Or you shove turn yourself to prevent yourself from difficult decisions, as he would have called your shove for sure.

Best regards,
Anin

Bierbaer

Joined: 27.05.2005

Posts: 3,322

14.09.2010, 12:19 0

I highly recommend you either bet/fold on the flop or check back.

He is very aggro postflop - but that's only because he's so tight preflop so he always has a hand!
The fact that he has -20BB/100 over a sample of 150 hands literally says nothing about whether he's a losing player or not, that is basically one 30BB pot he lost.

Bet/calling the flop will lead to a lot of spots in which you make mistakes, on clubs you'll fold vs his flushes, on 4 and 9 you could fold vs bluffs fearing the straight or call vs an overpair/straight because you think you have 2 blockers so the OESD is a small part of his range.

And even if all streets blank you'll oftentimes find yourself calling down vs JJ+.

Btw against a hand like J :club:T :club: you're an underdog on the flop!

Board: 8c 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.859% 45.86% 00.00% 2724 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 54.141% 54.14% 00.00% 3216 0.00 { JcTc }

Variance giveth and variance taketh away.

[Angebot] Private Coaching für NLSH bis inkl. NL100
Jetzt neu: Coaching-Sonderpreise für Microstakes-Spieler!

Bierbaer in Action (Podcasts inside)
[Coaching-Serie] Donkbets FTW [Coaching-Serie] Generalüberholung Gameplan Callen von 3-bets OOP

[Closed] NL200 77 IP middle pair face shove