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[Closed] NL100 SH - JJ in 3b pot - oesd on flop

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($103)
BB ($110)
UTG ($118)
CO ($100)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero J♠ J♣

UTG raises to $3, fold, fold, Hero raises to $11, fold, UTG calls $8

FLOP ($23) Q♥ K♠ T♥

Hero bets $14, UTG raises to $42, Hero calls $28

TURN ($107) Q♥ K♠ T♥ 6♥

Hero checks, UTG bets $65 (AI), Hero folds

UTG wins $104

villain is unknown (only 7 hands). I think preflop is pretty standard given we are out of position. Flop is not great but could be worse. the flop raise vs our cb is pretty unpleasant since I think we are mostly behind if we get it in here. not sure whether my call is spewy?

If we give ourselves implied odds for the remainder of villain's stack (since it seems he is committing himself), we are calling $28 for potential pot of $129.75 (23+42+14+ 50.75 (villain's effective stack after we call)), meaning we need about 17.7% equity to call on the turn.

Equilator gives our 1 street equity against the range of {QQ+, TT, AKs, AKo} as 16.2% (26.5% to the river), in which case we would have a close fold.

Did I miss anything? I don't think we can argue for shoving the turn as I estimate our feQ to be almost 0.

thanks


3 replies
VzLOM
Joined: 23.12.2007

I think preflop is pretty standard given we are out of position

not neciceraly. Are you goin to play on stack on Thigh dry board?

As played - we dont know whether 99,JT and FDs is still in his range - if so, i think we could just go broke on flop. If not i dont see much reasons in betting, though i hate playing calldown here oop. Tough spot. I think vs unknown i can just bet\fold cos we dont have great implieds on our straight and could have reversed.


Originally posted by Tim64

If we give ourselves implied odds for the remainder of villain's stack (since it seems he is committing himself), we are calling $28 for potential pot of $129.75 (23+42+14+ 50.75 (villain's effective stack after we call)), meaning we need about 17.7% equity to call on the turn.

Your implied odds aren't that great. even if he semi-commited himself with the big flop raise he might get away when u hit your str8 since he is IP and it's pretty obv. u have Jx on a 4card to a str8 + u don't even have clean outs since there are couple of heats combos in his range.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by Tim64
villain is unknown (only 7 hands). I think preflop is pretty standard given we are out of position.
Agree with VzLOM, it's not "standard" in every scenario like this, but it's ok if you have a plan for the postflop-play.

Flop is not great but could be worse. the flop raise vs our cb is pretty unpleasant since I think we are mostly behind if we get it in here. not sure whether my call is spewy?
Imo even the cbet is a bit spewy. He raised UTG, you 3bet from the SB and he calls - what do you think his range is?
I don't think we have too much foldequity because we're up against TT+ and KQ+.

If we give ourselves implied odds for the remainder of villain's stack (since it seems he is committing himself), we are calling $28 for potential pot of $129.75 (23+42+14+ 50.75 (villain's effective stack after we call)), meaning we need about 17.7% equity to call on the turn.
Agree with Maya on this one, you don't have implied odds. If you want to continue after his flopraise you can shove, but imo calling is the worst option. However, a shove might still easily be -EV, therefore I think c/f > b/f > b/3b > b/c.

Equilator gives our 1 street equity against the range of {QQ+, TT, AKs, AKo} as 16.2% (26.5% to the river), in which case we would have a close fold.

Did I miss anything? I don't think we can argue for shoving the turn as I estimate our feQ to be almost 0.
Yep and our equity sucks, so c/f.
thanks


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