Poker Stars $3.19+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 4 players
BB: t13147 M = 11.95
CO: t3400 M = 3.09
Hero (BTN): t3875 M = 3.52
SB: t10680 M = 9.71
Pre Flop: (t1100) Hero is BTN with J
K
1 fold, Hero raises to t3825 all in, 2 folds
This looks like a no brainer, but what is my range on the button here? It's the final table 'bubble' and I think cEV range model is too loose.
The SB is a random player, and bb is a multitabling decent reg.
SNG Wiz says shove any two in cEV
Nash says 42.7%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 87s 76s
I'm using an adjusted ICM model for the last 18places, it tells me 30%
22+,A2+,K9+,K6s+,QT+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s
is it much too tight? Given that the remaining players are also not as good as us on average, shoving hands like T9o, and 87s don't seem as +$EV to me as making the FT.
I see regs shoving any two here, which I think is a mistake, maybe because SNG wiz tells us so in default cEV mode and ranges?
It was another good day today, poor volume, but long average length. Some real unlucky suckouts on the final tables today otherwise would have been one of my best. I ended up going semi deep in one minbuyin MTT, but only cashed for $10 in the end with a QQ cooler.
50 tourneys played ITM 24%, ROI 27% +~$80 including some PLO zoom.
Since it's slow late I'm taking advantage of the traffic on zoom, and maybe regular tables too. Zoom $0.02/0.05 is worse than I am, and if I can become patient waiting for decent hands, and mucking all the shitty ones I want to call, I will do well.
My ICM structure for the final 2 tables is a work in progress, hopefully will work well for me. Mainly it's a 9 man structure with first 4 players paying off, each with half of the amount of the first 4 places in the final table. It seems to give decent results for 18-10man, I might refine it a bit. SNG wiz agrees more with Nash than before using only cEV.
Here's the structure I'm using:
15.5 10.25 8.25 6.25 0 0 0 0 0
thanks again for reading, good fortune.



