Pretty non-productive week behind. I haven't played much this week since I moved my bankroll to poker770 and that took for a while. Now I have my bankroll there but the site is lagging unfortunately, right now I can't log in. I've managed to play few thousand hands, that's it. Next week has to be better.
Exercise:
IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
BB: $32.82 (164.1 bb)
UTG: $21.56 (107.8 bb)
MP: $29.16 (145.8 bb)
CO: $28.35 (141.8 bb)
BTN: $33.91 (169.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $22.10 (110.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q
A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.50, CO folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.70) T
2
2
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.35, BTN calls $2.35
Turn: ($9.40) K
(2 players)
Hero bets $4.70, BTN calls $4.70
River: ($18.80) 9
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $13.16, Hero folds
I had only few hands from both of these players so both are pretty much unknown.
Two questions about this hand:
- 1. Is it profitable to bet on the flop and on the turn?
- 2. River card is As. What's our play?
Question number 1:
Spoiler
Buttons range is propably something like this:
Pöytä: T♦2♦2♣
VO Voitto Tasan
MP3 47.96% 43.25% 4.71% { AcQs }
CO 52.04% 47.33% 4.71% { JJ-66, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5d5c, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4d4c, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3d3c, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2d2c, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
119 combos. When we cbet, villain is most likely not folding any pair or any Ad-hand. However villain is folding all those KQ/KJ/87s without a flushdraw and that's a lot of hands.
Villains calling range on the flop:
Pöytä: T♦2♦2♣
VO Voitto Tasan
MP3 47.96% 43.25% 4.71% { AcQs }
CO 52.04% 47.33% 4.71% { JJ-66, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5d5c, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4d4c, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3d3c, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2d2c, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
68 combos left, which means that my fold equity on the flop is 1 - 68/119= 43%. We need only 33% fold equity when we cbet half pot.
Turn is Kh and I bet again. Villains calling range is propably something like this:
Pöytä: T♦2♦2♣ K♥
VO Voitto Tasan
MP3 24.14% 22.41% 1.72% { AcQs }
CO 75.86% 74.14% 1.72% { JJ-TT, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2d2c, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, AdQd, AcQc, KdQd, AdJd, AcJc, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d }
30 combos left BUT I'm not sure if villain folds those pocket pairs (33-99). If he does then it's a clear bet on the turn but if he doesn't it's not good. Given the fact that I have a gutshot and two overcards vs villains pocket pairs and I would expect most villains to fold those hands on the turn I think turn bet is good.
Is it profitable to bet OTF and OTT? Yes, I think so.
Question number 2:
Spoiler
So we are assuming that villains range when we get to the river is something like this:
Pöytä: T♦2♦2♣ K♥ A♠
VO Voitto Tasan
MP3 78.57% 75.00% 3.57% { AcQs }
CO 21.43% 17.86% 3.57% { JJ-TT, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2d2c, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, AdQd, AcQc, KdQd, AdJd, AcJc, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d }
We have a nice lead in term of equity because of that As. But can we shove for value on the river? Let's assume that villain calls with this range:
Pöytä: T♦2♦2♣ K♥ A♠
VO Voitto Tasan
MP3 14.29% 0.00% 14.29% { AcQs }
CO 85.71% 71.43% 14.29% { TT, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2d2c, ATs, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, QdJd }
We're pretty much crushed vs. this calling range, but this calling range is pretty tight. I'm not sure if villain is calling with hands like KQ/KJ/KT or worse. In my opinion we're either missing a little bit value or valuebetting vs calling range above.
Could we check/call? Let's see what range villain is shoving if we check on the river:
Pöytä: T♦2♦2♣ K♥ A♠
VO Voitto Tasan
MP3 40.00% 30.00% 10.00% { AcQs }
CO 60.00% 50.00% 10.00% { TT, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2d2c, ATs, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d }
10 combos. Villain has those 3 combos of missed flushdraws and we win vs. AJ. We have 40% equity vs. this range. I'm not sure if villain has those SC-hands in his range or would he even shove those missed flushdraws as a bluff but given the fact that I would get pretty good odds to call and villain might turn something into a bluff every once in a while I think I could check/call here.
Feel free to share your opinions about those answers!