Originally posted by Tim64
Yeah, that sounds right to me. I don't think there is any question of who is better at this stage, but Anand is on the home court and has beaten some incredibly tough opponents. If he finds some magic and Carlsen takes it for granted, we could see a sizeable upset.
Wait, just checking if I hedged enough there?
Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by Tim64
Yeah, that sounds right to me. I don't think there is any question of who is better at this stage, but Anand is on the home court and has beaten some incredibly tough opponents. If he finds some magic and Carlsen takes it for granted, we could see a sizeable upset.Wait, just checking if I hedged enough there?
It's clear that you think one or the other is going to win....probably....so I think that's enough hedging.
I thought chess is 100% skill, no variance... 
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I think the whole chess world is expecting Carlsen to take the place he deserves as a world champion. As you said there is no doubt who is the better player at this stage of their careers, but Anand does have one advantage in my oppinion, which is more experience in playing matches.
I expect (and hope) for an interesting chess production, and may the best man win.
Nice discussion of Anand's chances from my favourite Youtube uploader. And, of course, one of Vishy's best wins - the game of his that has made the biggest impression on me.
interesting move from anand's part in outing his team. get the chess leveling moving? 
cats
english blog: Never deposit - ZOOM poker (i'm back! ...maybe)
^^
Absolutely, and I think the best thing is Magnus's reaction. 
Funny how Anand then tried to limit the damage a few moments later by saying that people shouldn't believe everything that is said in press conferences, implying that he might not have been telling the full truth about his team of seconds.
I'm sure it was the full truth, he just wanted to make it seem as though Magnus hadn't gained as much from his lack of forthrightness.
yeah, i agree completely. magnus wins that one ♦
def looking forward to the games, seems like it'll be interesting.
cats
english blog: Never deposit - ZOOM poker (i'm back! ...maybe)
This seems to be the first chess world championship match since 1921 in which neither contestant hails from a current or former Soviet republic.
Wow, you are dead right. History making, I reckon
edit: OMG this is hilarious. Watch from beginning. It's a farce and they have no idea it's live to the world!!!
http://chennai2013.fide.com/anand-carlsen-video-with-commentary/
Ahhh well, the spoilsports removed all the good stuff and just left the sensible chess...
Hello Tim I follow you on twitter and tiltbook!! Love your min videos,I find them easier to follow and get more out of the short 10 to 15 minute videos than the 1 hr. ones for some reason( maybe its my age factoring in)...lol Older than most grinders...lol Please post more of these. Thanks Rob.
Originally posted by Tim64
Fantastic win today for Carlsen who moves into the lead after 4 drawn games.
Oooooooo! I will go and look at the game. 
Originally posted by Tim64
Carlsen wins again, with Black. Could turn into a bloodbath...
No such thing as a drawn ending if you're playing Carlsen.
Right. He has a postflop edge.
The winning move and... capitulation:
http://gyazo.com/0d24b5ce927a4567c3fee0d0ee8a6d8d
One of the things that connects poker and chess is that, in both games, a key concept is that of giving your opponent the opportunity to make a mistake. In yesterday's championship game, Carlsen squeezed Anand until the following position arose. Black has sacrificed a couple of pawns (from being 2 pawns up) to get rook activity and an advanced f-pawn.
The position is still technically drawn, but only if White finds the correct move, namely: 60. b4 which starts moving the white pawns up the board and allows the White rook to harrass the Black king from behind. It's the only move that draws, according to the computers. Putting your opponent in a position where he has to find the only saving move, given a choice of 3-4 candidate moves is incredibly powerful play. Anand went wrong with 60. Ra4 and his own pawns on b2 and c3 get in the way of delivering the necessary saving checks from the side.
Now, here is a similar idea in poker. We're on the bubble of a $100 6mx. Villain is a very strong winning reg.
Poker Stars, $92.60 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (BB): 2,960 (29.6 bb)
BTN: 2,430 (24.3 bb)
SB: 3,610 (36.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T
K
BTN folds, SB raises to 200, Hero calls 100
Flop: (400) Q 2 K
(2 players)
SB bets 200, Hero calls 200
Turn: (800) 9 (2 players)
SB bets 400, Hero calls 400
River: (1,600) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 550, SB calls 550
Results: 2,700 pot
Final Board: Q 2 K 9 J
Hero showed T K and won 2,700 (1,350 net)
SB mucked 9
Q and lost (-1,350 net)
On the river, villain plays his cards instead of his range vs my range. It's clear that Q9 (for two pair) is not ahead of any of my valuebetting range. But, having, turned two pair villian can't bear to let it go. I would have to be turning a one pair hand into a bluff for the call to be good. If we jam river, villain can hero fold; by betting an amount he can call, we induce the mistake.
In other news, 20k to go:
From watching the games, which I've found fascinating, and relying heavily on the commentary for explanations, it seems the chess folk agree with you. I've heard poker terms quite often especially from Lawrence Trent, though I heard Susan Polgar mention "Drawing Hand" once.
Great stuff!
Originally posted by Tim64
On the river, villain plays his cards instead of his range vs my range. It's clear that Q9 (for two pair) is not ahead of any of my valuebetting range. But, having, turned two pair villian can't bear to let it go. I would have to be turning a one pair hand into a bluff for the call to be good. If we jam river, villain can hero fold; by betting an amount he can call, we induce the mistake.
Should be more like "if we jam river, villain can hero call", right? Would not call it hero fold to lay down hand that is pure bluff catcher. Anyway real question is how often villain call this bet and how often he would call more polarized looking bet? E.g. if he calls this size 40% of time and shove 15% of time then shove would show more profit. But how much our sizing affects his calling frequency is hard to guess. Might be that he wants to call this to not be exploited by small bluff bet attempts, if your line is balanced.
