lol I'll consider moving to party ♦
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Originally posted by Tim64
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,880)
Hero ($3,279)
CO ($1,250)
BTN ($5,591)Dealt to Hero T♣ Q♣
fold, fold, SB calls $50, Hero checks
FLOP ($200) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets $200, SB raises to $400, Hero calls $200
TURN ($1,000) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠
SB bets $300, Hero calls $300
RIVER ($1,600) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠ A♥
SB checks, Hero checks
SB shows K♥ 7♦
(Pre 52%, Flop 18.6%, Turn 11.4%)Hero shows T♣ Q♣
(Pre 48%, Flop 81.4%, Turn 88.6%)Hero wins $1,600
Someone, anyone, please tell me how this guy is making 9%?
Could you explain your thought process here? I think I have a pretty good idea what went through your mind, but just want to check. And why the potb on the flop instead of a smaller bet?
Originally posted by Demonic226
Originally posted by Tim64
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,880)
Hero ($3,279)
CO ($1,250)
BTN ($5,591)Dealt to Hero T♣ Q♣
fold, fold, SB calls $50, Hero checks
FLOP ($200) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets $200, SB raises to $400, Hero calls $200
TURN ($1,000) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠
SB bets $300, Hero calls $300
RIVER ($1,600) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠ A♥
SB checks, Hero checks
SB shows K♥ 7♦
(Pre 52%, Flop 18.6%, Turn 11.4%)Hero shows T♣ Q♣
(Pre 48%, Flop 81.4%, Turn 88.6%)Hero wins $1,600
Someone, anyone, please tell me how this guy is making 9%?
Could you explain your thought process here? I think I have a pretty good idea what went through your mind, but just want to check. And why the potb on the flop instead of a smaller bet?
Ok, so I expect villain to bet a Q here very often (close to 100%). When he checks to me I assume that he is either giving up or he has some hand he does not want to bet and get raised off. From this I conclude that I have the best hand on the flop. Very occasionally he will have 44 or 47s, ofc
I'm betting big for two reasons:
1. It looks like I want him to fold so that in his eyes my hand strength is diminished (i'm betting more as a bluff than for value). This way I more likely to get a call from weaker hand or, even better, induce something from air.
2. The board has some draws on it (for many of the low semi-connected hands he might complete). So I want value now.
But reason number 1 is the most important. I basically think I have the nuts on the flop and I want to get the most value from that part of his range which is not just check/folding (i.e. either air or weak made hands). I should say that I raise a lot of completes, so it's hard for me to have a very strong hand here (in his eyes). Therefore I think my big bet should get even less credit.
So when he check raises me -- and especially this small when I could have a flush draw (when I would be getting a very good price) -- it more or less confirms that he is weak. At least, we can be certain he would never do this with Qx (even if he did not stab to begin with). He would either raise big or just check/call.
Therefore I think I'm getting a lot more value by just calling than by 3betting on the flop. Of course, he could have a flush draw but again I think he would raise more to try to get me to fold my 4x/7x type hands.
On the turn comes a perfect bluffing card for him since he can (theoretically) represent a flush draw. If he bets $700 it's actually pretty horrible and I may have to fold. But I don't think he will often do that without the goods since my line also looks like a potential flush draw and he doesn't want to be betting big into a made hand since a smaller (e.g. half pot) bet will do if I really have 7x or 4x. So the turn is an easy call for me. I don't think he would really bet this small with a flush, since by now it's clear I have a real hand and he wants to maximise value and get my whole stack. So turn definitely looks like a cheap bluff attempt from a hand that knows it's no longer best.
River is clearly a check behind, now that the ace comes. I think we would have to call almost any size bet, although timing tells might be useful. My read is that this guy is not the kind to bluff of his whole stack, so possibly we could find a fold if he jammed.
(Well not sure if all of this went through my head at the time -- but certainly some elements of it 
)
Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by Demonic226
Originally posted by Tim64
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,880)
Hero ($3,279)
CO ($1,250)
BTN ($5,591)Dealt to Hero T♣ Q♣
fold, fold, SB calls $50, Hero checks
FLOP ($200) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets $200, SB raises to $400, Hero calls $200
TURN ($1,000) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠
SB bets $300, Hero calls $300
RIVER ($1,600) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠ A♥
SB checks, Hero checks
SB shows K♥ 7♦
(Pre 52%, Flop 18.6%, Turn 11.4%)Hero shows T♣ Q♣
(Pre 48%, Flop 81.4%, Turn 88.6%)Hero wins $1,600
Someone, anyone, please tell me how this guy is making 9%?
Could you explain your thought process here? I think I have a pretty good idea what went through your mind, but just want to check. And why the potb on the flop instead of a smaller bet?
Ok, so I expect villain to bet a Q here very often (close to 100%). When he checks to me I assume that he is either giving up or he has some hand he does not want to bet and get raised off. From this I conclude that I have the best hand on the flop. Very occasionally he will have 44 or 47s, ofc
I'm betting big for two reasons:
1. It looks like I want him to fold so that in his eyes my hand strength is diminished (i'm betting more as a bluff than for value). This way I more likely to get a call from weaker hand or, even better, induce something from air.
2. The board has some draws on it (for many of the low semi-connected hands he might complete). So I want value now.
But reason number 1 is the most important. I basically think I have the nuts on the flop and I want to get the most value from that part of his range which is not just check/folding (i.e. either air or weak made hands). I should say that I raise a lot of completes, so it's hard for me to have a very strong hand here (in his eyes). Therefore I think my big bet should get even less credit.
So when he check raises me -- and especially this small when I could have a flush draw (when I would be getting a very good price) -- it more or less confirms that he is weak. At least, we can be certain he would never do this with Qx (even if he did not stab to begin with). He would either raise big or just check/call.
Therefore I think I'm getting a lot more value by just calling than by 3betting on the flop. Of course, he could have a flush draw but again I think he would raise more to try to get me to fold my 4x/7x type hands.
On the turn comes a perfect bluffing card for him since he can (theoretically) represent a flush draw. If he bets $700 it's actually pretty horrible and I may have to fold. But I don't think he will often do that without the goods since my line also looks like a potential flush draw and he doesn't want to be betting big into a made hand since a smaller (e.g. half pot) bet will do if I really have 7x or 4x. So the turn is an easy call for me. I don't think he would really bet this small with a flush, since by now it's clear I have a real hand and he wants to maximise value and get my whole stack. So turn definitely looks like a cheap bluff attempt from a hand that knows it's no longer best.
River is clearly a check behind, now that the ace comes. I think we would have to call almost any size bet, although timing tells might be useful. My read is that this guy is not the kind to bluff of his whole stack, so possibly we could find a fold if he jammed.
(Well not sure if all of this went through my head at the time -- but certainly some elements of it
Thnx a lot for the thorough explanation. Actually, the chk/r on the flop from villian would work a high % of the time against lower limit/non thinking regs (repping a set), but I assume you have enough history with him that he should at least know you know he can't have a set here, since he would have raised his PP's pre.
Totally agree with your turn+river reasoning.
One more thing about the betsizing, wouldn't it make your bluffs against him more expensive as well, since you have to balance it out? Or don't you really care about balancing it against him?
One more thing about the betsizing, wouldn't it make your bluffs against him more expensive as well, since you have to balance it out? Or don't you really care about balancing it against him?
Well, balancing is definitely an issue in theory. However in practice I think this particular situation arises fairly seldom.
The factors required are:
1. villain completes (Not that often compared to raising or folding)
2. i don't raise his complete (I very often will)
3. I flop a big hand in relation to his range
4. he checks (normally I expect him to stab - because More often than not he has nothing and wants to take it down)
5. My hand is strong enough that I will be happy inducing By betting big and if necessary getting it in on the flop (for example in this situation if I had 78 for middle pair I probably only bet half pot because that's all my hand is worth).
So in fact I think this particular situation is fairly rare. And so balancing take second place to maximising EV in the specific situation.
Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by jbpatzer
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,880)
Hero ($3,279)
CO ($1,250)
BTN ($5,591)Dealt to Hero T♣ Q♣
fold, fold, SB calls $50, Hero checks
FLOP ($200) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets $200, SB raises to $400, Hero calls $200
TURN ($1,000) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠
SB bets $300, Hero calls $300
RIVER ($1,600) 4♣ 7♠ Q♠ 5♠ A♥
SB checks, Hero checks
SB shows K♥ 7♦
(Pre 52%, Flop 18.6%, Turn 11.4%)Hero shows T♣ Q♣
(Pre 48%, Flop 81.4%, Turn 88.6%)Hero wins $1,600
Someone, anyone, please tell me how this guy is making 9%?
because he doesnt expect u to pot the queen, he's value raising vs ur draws
I wanted to post something in response to a $55 6mx sit and go I just played in which a player with a massive chip lead allowed himself to blow up and effectively give up around hundred dollars of equity.
We are on the bubble. In third place is a player with an enormous -35% ROI, down $7000 or so after just 800 games. Stacks are: CL 6489; me 4254; fish 1257.
The Chip leader has what I consider to be very misleading sharkscope stats: Games 14,946; average profit $5; average stake $34; average ROI 4%; total profit: $76,511
At a glance it looks like he is a very dangerous player. However looking at his graph it becomes evident that his poker career was kickstarted by one MTT win of around $60,000, since which time he's played 15,000 games and made $15,000. ($1/game). So actually this guy is not nearly as good as one might think from first impressions.
The Fish open raises to 3bb on the button, with only 6BB stack. Its obviously a spot where he should only ever be shoving or folding. In the present case, with a blocker, I assume he does this to look strong and shove over the top with A6s. Fish calls with K2o and gets lucky to double up.
The fish's double up is bad for me and bad for the chip leader, but CL is still in commanding position if he doesn't do anything stupid. However, he should by now know that the fish is not a good player and take this into account in his decisions.
The next hand CL raises AK and i reshove AK and the pot is split. Another possible cause of frustration for him.
A few hands later the Chip stacks are as follows:
CL 33bb
me 13bb
fish 14bb
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,714)
BB ($6,589)
Hero ($2,697)
Dealt to Hero Q♥ 8♦
fold, SB raises to $600, BB raises to $6,589 (AI), SB calls $2,114 (AI)
FLOP ($5,428) T♠ 2♣ 2♠
TURN ($5,428) T♠ 2♣ 2♠ K♦
RIVER ($5,428) T♠ 2♣ 2♠ K♦ 8♣
SB shows A♥ K♣
(Pre 67%, Flop 74.2%, Turn 100.0%)
BB shows 4♥ 9♠
(Pre 33%, Flop 25.8%, Turn 0.0%)
SB wins $5,428
The fish is in the small blind and gets dealt AKo and raises the chip leader's big blind 3x. CL has 49o. Instead of realising that a). fish is bad and won't know that he should fold to a shove as often as he should in this spot; and 2.) fish was committed to the pot last time raised 3x and c). his hand has no equity when called, he just bluff shoves 14bb eff anyway trying to bully his way to victory.
Right at this moment, before his action, he has around $140 in tournament EV.
Of course the fish calls, wins and takes over the chip lead. And our flaky reg is enormously frustrated at this and goes on tilt.
In the key hand, regfish has 17 BB, I have 10bb and fish has 33bb. Regfish still has around $97 of tournament EV and is doing fine.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($6,653)
BB ($3,375)
Hero ($1,972)
Dealt to Hero 8♥ T♥
fold, SB raises to $400, BB calls $200
FLOP ($800) 5♣ 2♦ 4♥
SB checks, BB bets $500, SB raises to $1,000, BB raises to $2,975 (AI), SB calls $1,975
TURN ($6,750) 5♣ 2♦ 4♥ T♣
RIVER ($6,750) 5♣ 2♦ 4♥ T♣ J♥
SB shows A♥ 3♣
(Pre 55%, Flop 89.6%, Turn 100.0%)
BB shows 4♦ 7♦
(Pre 45%, Flop 10.4%, Turn 0.0%)
SB wins $6,750
The call preflop is dubious being so short, but what I really hate is regfish's 3b shove on the flop, with just middle pair no kicker. By now he should realise that he has no feQ when the fish start putting money into the pot and furthermore he should understand that the fish's checkraise is really super strong. He should be good enough to just get away from this spot having made $75,000 playing poker. Yet he just stacks off with 10% equity and effectively hands me $100 on a platter.
Pretty enlightening to watch someone self combust like this. And a lesson to all: keep your head or lose your profit.
Nice post Tim, it's refreshing to see some analysis like this around our opponents games rather than just focussing on our own.
Great post.
Need to remember this: keep your head or lose your profit, keep your head or lose your profit, keep your head or lose your profit, keep your head or lose your profit, keep your head or lose your profit, keep your head or lose your profit....
Another lesson: always filter SS scores by game type at least, preferably by stakes too.
Originally posted by dydukas
Another lesson: always filter SS scores by game type at least, preferably by stakes too.
+1
Originally posted by dydukas
Another lesson: always filter SS scores by game type at least, preferably by stakes too.
Jeeeeeez. Only just noticed that. 
And this is why I don't believe people who say there is no profit in SNG's at the higher stakes.
Originally posted by Salivanth
And this is why I don't believe people who say there is no profit in SNG's at the higher stakes.
They usually mean something like 200+ or 500+ though
No, nothing unethical -- just a bunch of crazy people giving me their chips. Late stage of $55+5 SnG. These four hands occurred one after the other. Zero to Hero...
Hand 1.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($3,590)
BB ($2,890)
CO ($3,535)
Hero ($1,985)
Dealt to Hero A♦ K♣
fold, Hero raises to $400, SB calls $300, fold
FLOP ($1,000) 6♥ 4♠ 8♦
SB checks, Hero bets $500, SB calls $500
TURN ($2,000) 6♥ 4♠ 8♦ A♠
SB bets $2,690 (AI), Hero calls $1,085 (AI)
RIVER ($4,170) 6♥ 4♠ 8♦ A♠ A♣
Hero shows A♦ K♣
(Pre 65%, Flop 76.1%, Turn 100.0%)
SB shows J♣ Q♠
(Pre 35%, Flop 23.9%, Turn 0.0%)
Hero wins $4,170
Villain is unkown. I had been shoving my 10 BB stack a lot earlier on. Last time, bvb, I minR and he shoved over the top so I am guessing he assumes my Minraise is weak. I am not folding on the flop even if he shoves there. But the turn gives me quite a nice bluffs catcher... Villain's oop float with such short stacks is pretty horrible.
Hand 2.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,690)
BB ($3,535)
Hero ($4,170)
BTN ($1,605)
Dealt to Hero Q♥ Q♠
Hero raises to $400, fold, fold, BB raises to $3,535 (AI), Hero calls $3,135
FLOP ($7,170) 2♣ A♦ 6♣
TURN ($7,170) 2♣ A♦ 6♣ 9♠
RIVER ($7,170) 2♣ A♦ 6♣ 9♠ T♦
BB shows 8♠ 8♣
(Pre 19%, Flop 12.8%, Turn 4.5%)
Hero shows Q♥ Q♠
(Pre 81%, Flop 87.2%, Turn 95.5%)
Hero wins $7,170
Villain is a regular, though his sharkscope is locked (which is normally a very good or rather poor player). This re-shove looks like pure spew, given stack sizes and the poor standard of the other two players (both fish) meaning that he should have lots of other opportunities to get his money in good.
Hand 3.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $400(BB) Replayer
Hero ($7,805)
($1,605)
CO ($2,590)
Dealt to Hero K♦ K♠
raises to $1,605 (AI), fold, Hero calls $1,205
FLOP ($3,210) 5♠ 3♣ T♦
TURN ($3,210) 5♠ 3♣ T♦ 5♣
RIVER ($3,210) 5♠ 3♣ T♦ 5♣ 7♦
Hero shows K♦ K♠
(Pre 80%, Flop 86.8%, Turn 95.5%)
shows 4♠ 4♣
(Pre 20%, Flop 13.2%, Turn 4.5%)
Hero wins $3,210
Pretty standard. Must be nice to get dealt AK, QQ and KK consecutively 
Hand 4.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $400(BB) Replayer
($2,590)
Hero ($9,410)
Dealt to Hero 4♦ 9♦
Hero raises to $850, raises to $1,300, Hero calls $450
FLOP ($2,600) 4♣ 7♠ 7♥
bets $1,290 (AI), Hero calls $1,290
TURN ($5,180) 4♣ 7♠ 7♥ 8♣
RIVER ($5,180) 4♣ 7♠ 7♥ 8♣ 3♠
Hero shows 4♦ 9♦
(Pre 32%, Flop 72.1%, Turn 79.5%)
shows A♦ J♦
(Pre 68%, Flop 27.9%, Turn 20.5%)
Hero wins $5,180
Preflop is a Nash push against a good reg. I would fold to the min3b versus a known slow player. But this guy did the same thing earlier on with A8o, so I expect any 4 or 9 to be good and we get a good price.
Lessons:
1. Dont give up or panic even in dead last position - bad players will always give you chances to double up.
2. Dont assume just because an opponent had a good hand last hand that he can't possibly have another good one. Dont take thin shoves against opponents who won't ever call you with worse, when you are comfortably second in chips with weak players around who will pay you off.
3. Remember hands from early in the game - they will guide you in the later stages.
Nice post again Tim, enjoying your blog.
What do you make of the min3b in the last hand ? I mean to an extent it served it's purpose if he's getting you to call so light and he's jamming every flop - it should pick him up an extra t450 over just shoving pre. But interesting that you say he min3b with A8o, so your 9 or 4 should be good. Shouldn't you be more worried that your 9 or 4 won't be good if he's min3b A8o rather than say TT+ AT+ ?
Originally posted by nibbana
Nice post again Tim, enjoying your blog.What do you make of the min3b in the last hand ? I mean to an extent it served it's purpose if he's getting you to call so light and he's jamming every flop - it should pick him up an extra t450 over just shoving pre. But interesting that you say he min3b with A8o, so your 9 or 4 should be good. Shouldn't you be more worried that your 9 or 4 won't be good if he's min3b A8o rather than say TT+ AT+ ?
Thanks 
I really dislike the min3b in this spot. I have to call $450 more for a pot of $2150 so I only need around 20% equity (which ofc i have even if he were only doing it with top 5%).
Main reason for disliking it is that he forces me to call with hands that are behind his hand but which can easily out flop him. If he had [QQ]/KK/AA then its different since he has no reason to fear being outflopped.
Thats why I dont think it's correct that he earns an extra 450 chips over shoving preflop. If I was folding preflop to every shove and folding post-flop to every shove (having called the extra 450) then of course he earns more by Minthree betting. But what happens in practice is that I'm not folding post-flop when I hit. So by doing this he ensures that he gets the other half of his stack in "bad" (because I only call the shove post-flop when I have reasonable equity - i.e pair/strong draw+). Put simply, he commits himself to putting the second half of his stack in "blind" while I only do it when I hit (and I pay a mere 1/4 of the pot for the privilege).
I think while the reverse domination point is an issue in theory, it's outweighed by the benefits described above.
be careful calculating pre-flop equity with pure pot odds. you have to use just your flop equity because his AI % on the flop is very high. so you will not get to see 3 streets very often. obv this is still fine if you plan to stack off with any pair because you will flop a pair >20% of the time. but its not the same as your overall equity vs his range.
nh
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
be careful calculating pre-flop equity with pure pot odds. you have to use just your flop equity because his AI % on the flop is very high. so you will not get to see 3 streets very often. obv this is still fine if you plan to stack off with any pair because you will flop a pair >20% of the time. but its not the same as your overall equity vs his range.nh
Can't argue with that.
<3, If villain had shoved pre we would need 33% equity (we have 34%) which we would have if he 3b shoved a 20% range.
Given that do you agree that his min3b (assuming same ranges for sake of argument) is actually better for us than him shoving pre? i.e our flop equity vs 20% range is 22.5% but we only need 17.5%?
Am I right that if he shoves all flops (i.e always going in blind) we effectively gain a better price on our call since we get more of our money in good post flop?