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Making a living with STT SNGs

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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist
IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

5.18 hours of grind, coaching session and spent time in coffee place a bit more then 1 hour.

Graphs in my PT4 are acting up. So I will include graph JPG for lines as well as Results tab where on the graph you can see pre RB profit of 420$.

Results:

Graph with different lines:

I called this day, Monday like Sunday :) Yesterday I got light called, tired, made some miss plays and a lot of bluffs didn't go through (ran into very top of the ranges). Today totally opposite story. There were only several HU games that were putting me to real test and edge, rest my range construction balance and maximizing EV worked like a charm post flop. Texture study and understanding is coming nicely for sure.
Coaching session, saw that my strategy is very different in some elements in the game vs my friends. BVB he plays differently BB vs SB. Plays BTN differently shallow. HU has different range balancing IP and OOP we likely play similar range. Despite the fact that we have different game plans, when I explained to my friend why I do what I do, it made sense to him. It is important to me to improve in all areas as a poker player. I am willing to listen accept new strategy and learn but it has to make 100% sense for applying. For example, if I play 15s and people have no clue about range balancing pre flop when limping, it makes no sense to turn strong hands into bluff facing l/shove or something like that. So yeah, on 15s I feel my BB vs SB strategy is very strong, its printing money thanks to DB analysis I did. My SB vs BB strategy used to SUCK but I improved it thanks to 2 3 key things 1) did DB analysis to see how overall playing field plays and then run the scenarios in CREV to get most +EV strategy OOP 2) checked my stats vs my friends BVB thanks to which I adjusted some spots 3) Stopped spewing in the spots where I was before (due to expecting people to respect certain line or sizings). HU game plan was always very good, especially for this limit. However, I am most happy and proud about my post flop hand reading skills getting sharper and sharper. I get the feeling that on daily basis I make at least 5+ superb bluff catches knowing exactly what to expect and see from opponent(s).
Perhaps the best thing about everything is, I can pass my knowledge to my best friend who will have easier time climbing up the stakes and making money for future Thailand trip.

Next update about Twitch Study Session - happening very soon!


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Twitch and Study update:

11:30pm in 13 minutes from now
, will do 30+ minute study session.
Will focus on marked hands where I made mistakes in particular. Will try to go over the range vs range and lines as fast as possible so that I can cover most hands.

See you on Twitch soon


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vuciitis
Joined: 19.02.2011
Oldschool Grinder

Hello Sir!

As u have recently started to grind mornings and before you seemd to play mosly evenings/nights, could you share your toughts about differences in playing field for mornings (9.00-12.00) midday (12.00-16.00) and evenings (~16.00+) ? Many people believe there is little to no point grinding at the middle of the day (im talking about 15s spesificly). To me personally it sounds like a total bullshit, but id like to hear your opinion on this.

ps. happy to visit a quality blog every evening, very nice job on this :f_thumbsup:


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99PROBLEMSS
Joined: 29.08.2012
Poker Player

I got to the stream late today. Really like the stream alot.
Will try to catch it at the start next time. Good Luck!!!!!


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Originally posted by vuciitis
Hello Sir!

As u have recently started to grind mornings and before you seemd to play mosly evenings/nights, could you share your toughts about differences in playing field for mornings (9.00-12.00) midday (12.00-16.00) and evenings (~16.00+) ? Many people believe there is little to no point grinding at the middle of the day (im talking about 15s spesificly). To me personally it sounds like a total bullshit, but id like to hear your opinion on this.

ps. happy to visit a quality blog every evening, very nice job on this :f_thumbsup:

Hello Sir!

Happy that you enjoy reading the blog every evening. Happy to help and provide value :)
Regarding your question, I haven't noticed that much difference to be honest. Maybe in the morning there is less regs in the games, but that's just maybe. I think at any time on 15s games are very +EV. Work on textures, protect and improve your leaks, you will crush cEV I am positive.
GL :)


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Originally posted by 99PROBLEMSS
I got to the stream late today. Really like the stream alot.
Will try to catch it at the start next time. Good Luck!!!!!

It was great to see you my friend! Glad you enjoyed it a lot, there will be study session tomorrow, keep an eye out on the blog :)
Thank You and good luck to You too!


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist
tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009
Oldschool Grinder

No matter how well computers solve HU, teaching them to play 3-max is a very different task: unlike in the HU case, playing a Nash equilibrium strategy doesn't guarantee that Hero won't lose. E.g. on a 6-max STT bubble, shoving ATC into a loose rec in a Nash ATC spot often loses $EV because the rec calls too wide, hurting both and benefiting the third player.

In a winner-take-all 3-player game, the effect of deviations in one opponent's play on the EV of Hero's Nash strategy is less dramatic but it can still be negative sometimes. E.g. in the push/fold phase, as pointed out by coffeeyay, assuming that SB and BB both play Nash, if BTN shoves tighter than Nash, he loses a bit of EV but he also hurts SB's EV because then SB has to play the HU push/fold subgame with BB more often, which is unprofitable for SB if the stacks are deep enough (>8 bb). Conversely, if BTN shoves wider than Nash, he loses some EV and also hurts BB's one because the latter is less likely to get a walk or face a BvB shove but more likely to face 2 shoves, whereas SB gains EV. Moreover, if SB / BB adjusts to BTN's tight / wide shoving range, SB / BB will still have a lower EV as opposed to the case where all the 3 play Nash.

Therefore 3-max poker AI should focus on creating opponent models, deciding (by means of Bayesian inference) which of the models is applicable to the particular opponents and playing the strategy that optimally exploits those models (while playing an anti-population-tendency strategy at the beginning when little is known about the opponents), rather than employing an equilibrium strategy.


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

I actually think that programing AI bot for Spins is far easier vs HU CG.
While having extra player makes things more difficult (more decisions, different ranges and spots), majority of ROI in Spins comes from HU and post flop edge. Since Spins go from 25bb effective down in HU, it is far easier to program HU with shallow stack vs 100bb effective stacks. Simply put, decision making tree is much easier to calculate and deal with.

When I was in Thailand, I told my friends crushers about bots possibly entering Spins in near future and explained why is that. There is already bots on micro 6 max CGs on most rooms, there was PLO high stakes scandal on Stars (which has best prevention detection vs bots), AI beat 4 pro's with huge win rate... Spins are most popular game and they are very likely to be targeted by AI or Bot programmers.
I was even telling my friends that I got an offer to give my strategy to programmer and get paid one time fee or in % split for bot to play Spins on Stars. :) I did not accept it!!! If I see funky things happening in 2017 and on and see that bots are on Spins all over the place, it will be time for Stars to do something different or switch games since edges will be lesser , ROI will go down, bots will take our win rate in games vs fish, bots don' tilt etc.
Don't get me wrong, beating bot is not impossible nor super difficult - especially at low/mid stakes. But beating AI bot is different because its a learning mechanism that will adjust and keep making new strategies vs human player. On the other side, we as humans get tired, tilted, slack with working on the game, slack with finding leaks in other opponents game etc. Bot does this automatically.

So my prediction is that within next year and a half bots will enter Spins.Probably 3 and 7$ limits mostly to stay under radar. Probably will take another extra year to crush 15s and 30s. And then very likely 1 more year to go to 60s and 100s.

We as human players have to put hours and hours in studying textures, understanding why something is the way it is, memorize range construction on textures then forget it. With bot, once you put texture and math formula and range vs range, it memorizes it and never forgets it!

The only GREAT NEWS is that this kind of programing takes time. For somebody to make Spin bot they need to be very strong poker player who plays this stake or 2nd case find someone to give them strategy for $. Like I said, I was approach to give my winning strategy to programmer who has bots and I declined.

So keep studying and pushing, regardless of bots, we are still ahead of the curve and future in Spins is still very bright.


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
So my prediction is that within next year and a half bots will enter Spins.Probably 3 and 7$ limits mostly to stay under radar. Probably will take another extra year to crush 15s and 30s. And then very likely 1 more year to go to 60s and 100s.

Stars have the best bot detection techniques in the poker industry, and they also have the strongest human regs, so bots will first appear at other sites. They won't be deployed to Stars until they're strong enough to crush all the stakes offered elsewhere (i.e. up to €50), but when they are, they'll enter the $100s right away. However, Stars will suffer collateral damage much earlier because the deposits of the recs of other sites will be depleted faster than if they were facing humans only, those fields will become less soft and some regs will switch to Stars.

PLO bots had to come to Stars just because there were not enough midstake PLO games running elsewhere. Lottery SnGs, on the contrary, have enough traffic on many networks at peak hours.

Of course, there are traffic issues at off-peak hours which would reduce a bot's daily profit, but having it play in a safe haven for 'only' 6 hours a day would still have a higher EV than allowing it to play at Stars for 12 hours a day and risking getting caught (being asked to record a session with the webcam, and so on).


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Quick update in regards to days like today

Taught 1 guitar lesson, played 4+ hours and meet with friend for coffee.

Some key takeaways and pattern that keeps showing:
- Afternoons to evening = less energy, more tired - should avoid grinding all together and study instead (which brings me up instead)
- Whenever there is guitar lesson during the day (like today 2:15pm), it messes up my time management for grind somewhat.
- Long term things need to change to maintain very positive win rate and high level of productivity!

Some ways how I will tackle this in future:
- Whenever I have lesson during the day, I will not go for coffee but stay home and grind before and after that session. Key is to get 2 hours minimum before noon time. After that 3 more hours become much easier to do.
- Coffee time with friends. Was aware that this will need to go down and for some reason since I came back to Thailand I went to coffee like 7+ times. While on 1 side its great, socializing and hanging out low key and gets happiness up always, its of course -EV in terms of my overall goals for this year in poker. Every coffee session grind is way less vs at home because at home I have no distractions and I play better game, that's just a fact. So yeah, I will find in time management 1 day a week for coffee and that's it. That day will be when I don't have lessons.
- Studying slacking on those kind of days. Don't like it a single bit. I feel a day without studying is a failed day. So studying is a must and that is 5.5 to 6 hours total with daily grind goals. I am aware that I improved a lot since the start of this year and in comparison where I was in 2016, but I promised myself that I will keep pushing hard. No comfort zone bullshit, grinding to print money and shit. Improving, becoming best poker player I can and regaining that study and grind combined sky is the limit.
- Installing some blocker programs for everything but Online Stopwatch for example while grinding. No FB, YouTube, TV Shows etc. Just Stop Watch, focus on grind and that's it. I am not loosing huge EV with some of those things in the back but I am all about seeing realistic 2 tabling vs 3 tabling next month. I want to fix as many leaks as possible so that when I 3 table red line stays positive and my HU game plan with post flop doesn't get messed up!

I would grade today 7/10 because there was no study and I did 1 grind session less but I did play 4 hours, meet with friend for coffee and taught 1 guitar and music lesson. Also today due to being tired there was C- game at times, miss playing hands or turning hands into bluff just random bad play. Definitely playing later in the evening for me is big difference since I get up earlier in the day.

So, tomorrow minimum 1 guitar lesson 8pm. There might be 2 of them which again will affect my grind a lot. So 3 hours of grind tomorrow will be superb BUT a must study session 1 hour. I will also talk to my friend crusher and see if we are doing coaching tomorrow to continue with texture study. Marked a lot of hands and there are some interesting textures for attacking and defending that I want to cover with PIO Solver...

I will hit the bed now, its late for study session since I am going for 9am wake up and will hit bed in 30 minutes maximum.

Enjoy your week on and off the tables :)


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Twitch update

In 10 minutes I will Twitch HH review (marked hands) as well as 1 tabling without HUD.
I know a lot of you missed grinding so I want to make it happen for you gang.

See you in 10 minutes on Twitch


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Primrose6789
Joined: 01.07.2016
PokerStrategist

Of course you have less energy in the afernoons. Cortisol* level drops and concentration level is the lowest between 2 pm and 4 pm. You have the highest creativity and concentration level somwhere between 8 am and noon. That´s why I use to work from very early in the morning (6 am) to about 2 -4 pm (depends on work load), after 2 pm I just do "light work" like paperwork, phone/skype calls/conferences, E-Mails, cleaning my office ..etc.

After 4 pm Cortisol level rises again until 8 or 10 pm.

*"stress hormon" which keeps you awake (the problem of burn-out patients is they are too low in Cortisol and people with agitated major depression too high, so that´s why they also suffer from axiety and panic, people with Cushing-Syndrome are WAY too high in Cortisol, they have a weak immune system and often get overweight. Cortisol suppresses inflammatory reactions, which are necessary to recruit immune cells to the spot where an infection occured).


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Originally posted by Primrose6789
Of course you have less energy in the afernoons. Cortisol* level drops and concentration level is the lowest between 2 pm and 4 pm. You have the highest creativity and concentration level somwhere between 8 am and noon. That´s why I use to work from very early in the morning (6 am) to about 2 -4 pm (depends on work load), after 2 pm I just do "light work" like paperwork, phone/skype calls/conferences, E-Mails, cleaning my office ..etc.

After 4 pm Cortisol level rises again until 8 or 10 pm.

*"stress hormon" which keeps you awake (the problem of burn-out patients is they are too low in Cortisol and people with agitated major depression too high, so that´s why they also suffer from axiety and panic, people with Cushing-Syndrome are WAY too high in Cortisol, they have a weak immune system and often get overweight. Cortisol suppresses inflammatory reactions, which are necessary to recruit immune cells to the spot where an infection occured).

Super useful info Prim , thank you!


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Quick and important update

Since today, I started mixing 15s and 30s!
Last night I played in Twitch session some 30s and saw similar level of play like on 15s just better HU opponents of course.

So starting today, I will 2 table, with focus on mixing 15s and 30s.
I have told my friend who stakes me and he gave a green light. I have set up quick stop loss of 5 buy ins on 30s. So just taking shot at this time. In near future once my life br and poker br is built, I can consider mixing them full time or simply playing them staked full time. I am however more leaning to play 15s on my own in some near future (after I have 3k BR minimum for poker and at least several months of rents paid !!!) and then mixing 30s later in the year.
Calculated hourly 2 tabling with 80cEV on 15s and 55 on 30$ and it is 24$ per hour which is pretty sweet considering its 2 tabling and both of these win rates are attainable. 55 cEV for 30s came as approximation from my friend crusher who said he expects me to have that cEV minimum 2 tabling 30s alone.

So far graph on 30s with results tab as well (PT4 not doing correct work on 6x games - not including them in graphs).

Graph:

Results :

Lets crush 30s ;) :f_cool:


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
Lets crush 30s ;) :f_cool:

Good luck, IvicaIliev77! :sfishg:

Btw, could you explain a bit why your nickname is IvicaIliev? :f_smile: I know he is a footballer, a veteran now, and that he played for Partizan, but he didn't have a particulary impressive career, at least globaly. Was he popular amongst Partizan fans?


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Love is blind, especially with football stars.

Btw, thanks for giving me an idea to use MatejaKezman9 as a Microgaming screenname :f_tongue: (it will only last for ~1000 hands, of course, then I'll have a chance to change it).


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
Since today, I started mixing 15s and 30s!

It seems that now you need to reevaluate your BRM because most of the UK fish from the 15s must have gone into the new 10s (available only in the UK so far but probably coming to other countries soon) with a $1.2M = 120K BI top prize tier - 4% of each buy-in goes towards it, and another 4% towards the 1200 BI tier - and 8% rake, thus essentially with 16% rake if we exclude the top 2 multipliers :ayfkm:

The full payout structure as reported on 2+2:

120000x - 1 in 1,000,000
1200x - 100 in 1,000,000
100x - 500 in 1,000,000
10x - 1,000 in 1,000,000
6x - 30,000 in 1,000,000
4x - 171,601 in 1,000,000
2x - 796,798 in 1,000,000


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IvicaIliev77 Topic starter
IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012
PokerStrategist

Originally posted by Alleen86

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
Lets crush 30s ;) :f_cool:

Good luck, IvicaIliev77! :sfishg:

Btw, could you explain a bit why your nickname is IvicaIliev? :f_smile: I know he is a footballer, a veteran now, and that he played for Partizan, but he didn't have a particulary impressive career, at least globaly. Was he popular amongst Partizan fans?

Appreciate good vibes always man :)
Ivica Iliev is currently sport director of FC Partizan Belgrade. He was the player who got us twice into Champions league. 1st time his goal vs Newcastle away secured us overtime and penalties after which we went into CL. 2nd time his cross lead to own goal in Belgrade and 1st goal away vs Anderlecht he set up from corner for Cleo. So 1st time directly, 2nd time indirectly, he is the player in the recent history of Partizan Belgrade that brought glory to the club. A lot of fans don't watch football like I do. I watch all 22 players + work on understanding coaches and formations they choose and exploits vs teams (specific match ups). Ivica Iliev was kind of player (when he used to play - now he is sports director and a very successful one) that brought fans to the Stadium. He could with 1 pass make a difference, dribble effectively and score goals. So attacking midfilder, supporting and main striker. The guy can do it all and for someone from Serbia he is very unappreciated by general public (he only played few games for national team while other Red Star players got 40+ caps and didn't do shit for the country = national team lobby for 20 years or so was Red Stars), but I know why I love this player and why I fully support his work.
He is one of the football players I would like to meet in real life and hang out with. We have some common friends, that might happen in the future who knows :)


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