Manifestation of The Inevitable

4 combos of 99-TT vs 6 combos of JJ

am I doing smth wrong or is it just my standard run?

Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (BB): $25.89 (129.5 bb)
CO: $15.96 (79.8 bb)
BTN: $23.22 (116.1 bb)
SB: $20.10 (100.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q Q
CO raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.40, CO calls $1.60

Flop: ($4.90) 9 5 T (2 players)
Hero bets $2.24, CO calls $2.24

Turn: ($9.38) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($9.38) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.25 and is all-in, CO calls $11.32 and is all-in

Results: $32.02 pot ($1.60 rake)
Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$15.96 net)
CO showed T T and won $30.42 ($14.46 net)

Wow man, every time I open your blog, you hit straight/royal flush. Congrats!

On the downswing side, hope you soon learn to just accept variance and ride it through. I sympathize with you, because I know how hard it is. Been there, done that, it wasn't cool.

GL!

Originally posted by StaticMoth
4 combos of 99-TT vs 6 combos of JJ

am I doing smth wrong or is it just my standard run?

Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (BB): $25.89 (129.5 bb)
CO: $15.96 (79.8 bb)
BTN: $23.22 (116.1 bb)
SB: $20.10 (100.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q Q
CO raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.40, CO calls $1.60

Flop: ($4.90) 9 5 T (2 players)
Hero bets $2.24, CO calls $2.24

Turn: ($9.38) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($9.38) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.25 and is all-in, CO calls $11.32 and is all-in

Results: $32.02 pot ($1.60 rake)
Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$15.96 net)
CO showed T T and won $30.42 ($14.46 net)

U should bet bigger on the flop vs this guy to set up a shove, imo. He is not a full stack, and that always looks fishy, although rest depends on stats and table dynamics

Originally posted by FakeLunatic
Wow man, every time I open your blog, you hit straight/royal flush. Congrats!

On the downswing side, hope you soon learn to just accept variance and ride it through. I sympathize with you, because I know how hard it is. Been there, done that, it wasn't cool.

GL!

I know, right
But on the flip of it, I get setted/quaded in a 3b pot 25 times for every time I hit a straight flush

Didn't want to cbet too big though so I could get away from my hand if he decides to get funky coz he was passive overall ...

99-JJ/AQ-AK is what I put him on ... and never expect him to go nuts with air there.

Just flats, (almost) perfect turn, checks back ... Majority of his range JJ and never folding it.

^^
He...um..."played it like a set"?

Don't ever be stunned by variance.

"One day you will run worse than you ever imagined possible..."

Originally posted by Wriggers
Don't ever be stunned by variance.

"One day you will run worse than you ever imagined possible..."

Yeah ... and that one day is almost every day by now.

That's why I am stunned ... when smth beyond your imagination happens, that's naturally gonna stun you ♠_mad:

chipdumping ♦

Originally posted by stripofbacon
chipdumping ♦

Guess he forgot to ask the SN of whom he was supposed to dump to

Originally posted by StaticMoth

Originally posted by Wriggers
Don't ever be stunned by variance.

"One day you will run worse than you ever imagined possible..."

Yeah ... and that one day is almost every day by now.

That's why I am stunned ... when smth beyond your imagination happens, that's naturally gonna stun you ♠_mad:

Yeah ldo ♦ What you've got to do is stop your "Natural" way of thinking, it's what we've been doing since we started playing poker. Natural instinct is to remain passive and not fold hands, but we have to force ourselves to go against that to be profitable. We also have to go against natural mindset in order to tilt less.

surely this is a very clear fold pre?

and how much you've invested is irrelevant

Std stackoff post, imo. Who knows when MP slowplays AA and BB overplays KQ? Yeah, you are prolly not in amazing shape here, but if you are gonna fold flop you may as well fold pre since set over set is gonna happen and the lower the pp you see the flop with, the more it will happen on average.

How much we've invested, like Kruppe says, isn't directly relevant; it's only indirectly relevant, since it forms part of the pot in determining our odds.

Originally posted by Kruppe
surely this is a very clear fold pre?

with nearly 50bb in the pot, rly?

is it a clear fold for exactly the reason that we're always gonna be hitting the bottom set with some reverse implieds ooor is there smth else I'm missing?

Originally posted by Tim64
Std stackoff post, imo. [...]

+1

Even though, yeah, his range there is like 95% 99 due to preflop.

That's why I don't think it's so bad to fold 44 pre after the sqz, but would easily call medium pairs (77-TT). But was it not a squeezed pot you'd go broke anyway...

No one really won money on that hand (except the house) as next time around you'll be the one holding the 99 and it will play out just the same.

your odds preflop just aren't that good considering you only hit sets 12% of the time and when you do hit a set and go broke you very often get coolered and people might just have Ace high or some weakish pair and not put money in the pot.

i'd probably only call if i'm 150+bb deep(just rough estimate, don't want to think too much right now)
and at NL50+ i'd probably fold regardless of stacks

although it might be much closer than i thought. i saw one less caller...