Originally posted by jbpatzer
2) Another tight reg. I rather crush this board, so I thought I'd try checking back and getting some value later. Not sure whether I could have gotten some more out of him, or whether my bet sizing, or indeed my whole plan is any good here.
PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($19.21)
SB ($37.41)
BB ($38.33)
UTG ($30.39)
MP ($25.25)
jbpatzer (CO) ($64.03)
Preflop: jbpatzer is CO with K
, A
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, jbpatzer calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises to $3.25, 2 folds, jbpatzer calls $2.50
Flop: ($7.50) 9
, K
, A (2 players)
SB checks, jbpatzer checks
Turn: ($7.50) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, jbpatzer calls $4.50
River: ($16.50) Q (2 players)
SB bets $4, jbpatzer raises to $13.40, SB calls $9.40
Total pot: $43.30 | Rake: $1.95
Results below:
Spoiler
SB mucked Q, A (two pair, Aces and Queens).
jbpatzer had K, A (two pair, Aces and Kings).
Outcome: jbpatzer won $41.35
Preflop: I think our line is good given that we are 150bb deep effectively vs SB. Ofc we could 3bet vs MP, but I don't mind calling at all, depends mostly on game dynamics. Ofc, special dynamics can also dictate a 4bet vs SB when we got some monkey dynamics going.
Postflop: I think there is one key element to think about: RANGES, RANGES, RANGES!
Our range for calling in position is fairly wide given the deep stacks. SB range for squeezing shouldn't be too wide. JJ+, AK and a few bluff 3bets like Axs for blockers or just T7s or K8s because MP and CO have high fold 2 3bet stats and SB assumes enough fold equity.
With that in mind we see a Flop of AK9 with two spades. SB checks. At this point in time we need to take a closer look of what range of hands out of a preflop squeezing range do not cbet such a great Flop. Now we can start ruling out many hands. Any flushdraw would bet, any 8s6s kinda hands are no longer in SB's range. A hand like AK or KK is unlikely a)given hand combos as we hold AK and b)given the fact that we don't see a cbet. More often than not a small cbet would be expected. I would go so far as to rule out AA, KK, AK, and gutshot like JT and QJ because the board is too good for a squeezer's range and with J or Q high check/calling cannot really be the plan. So far we ruled out most of SB's range already, let's see what hands are left: JJ and QQ which value squeezed preflop and don't know what to do know with two overcards on the board. Versus those hands it doesn't really matter what we do as we mostly get one street value out of them. We can check behind 2 streets and bet River, we can bet on the Turn after checking behind the Flop. However, it's hard to believe to get more than one bet in anyway. As a consequence, we don't need to focus on that part of SB's checking range. Which hands are left? Ax(s)! Now sit back for a minute and think what that means. SB range mostly consists of Ax(s) or the occasional KJ (same applies for KJ as for QQ and JJ for the most part). Now let's take a look at the situation from SB's perspective: CO called an MP openraise and called a SB squeeze. CO's range probably never consists of any premium hands. As a consequence, SB should mostly rule out KK+ and AK. QQ and JJ are possible. Then there are numerous speculative hands like pockets and suited connectors, suited gap connectors and maybe even a few offsuited connectors. All those hands missed this Flop and will most likely not call a single bet. a hand like 8h7h might start bluffing though reading SB's hand as QQ. WIth a reasonable CO range in mind, SB will very often - if not to say always - start by checking Ax hans as strong as AQ even. A2 and AQ are not that far off in this situation as it's very unlikely for CO to show up with even AJo. By now, we know that our range is perceived to have NEVER hit this Flop and to be WEAK. We add the fact of SB line to the puzzle and will find us in a very favourable spot: SB often has Ax. We are perceived to never have SB beat. Ergo our plan has to be to fire Flop, Turn and River and use smart betsizin along the way. We want to represent JhTh, XsXs, 55 etc. We want to and we clearly can represent all those hands and it will be extremely difficult for SB to ever fold Ax. Let me tell you why: We bet 4.5 on the Flop. Making the pot 16.50 on the Turn. Turn (especially such a great blank one) we bet 11.50. Pot will be 39.50 by the River. SB has 18 left at this point. It's almost impossible for SB to fold getting 4:1 at this point when we got that far. At the same token it's also extremely tough for SB to find a fold at an earlier stage in the hand. Definitely not on the Flop and on such a blank Turn I don't think folding is much of an option. Hero missplayed that hand imho as we didn't think enough about SB and CO range as we should have. The argument of "we cannot think it through that well during the hand" doesn't apply imo as we are Pros and should clearly be able to understand this situation and already be aware of our perceived range even before we see a Flop. A great scenario for us but we didn't make the most out of it.
THe hand is a good example of losing value against a range and of the danger of squeezing Ax out of position in deepstacked NLHE.
)and I was thinking about that. I certainly think I should have bet more, but do you really think his calling range is inelastic enough to shove?
Thanks anyway.
AMaA: The Good Life
