SuperUorMe's SnG blog

I did fold even tho nash is 88+...

And exactly what I was thinking, how to calculate these probabilities - blinding out to the 3rd place vs. placing higher...would be extremely difficult I guess, I tried to put on the paper few basic numbers, probabilities and it is just way too complicated for me, I definitely forget some variances and so on...

I am being also more consertive even tho I am trying more and more to play the aggresive way coz of the bounties, theres bigger difference in placing higher - if u palce 1st u get your bounty back, bounty of the runner up and so on...so I might be in these spots more aggresive, meaning I should be calling bottom range definitely...

KO's are great imo. Even if you happen to be in a very bad downswing, you still lose less as you can get somebody's bounty. You know how frustrating it is to stack off 2-3 people and then bubble out! That sucks. Range differ somehow, I agree. Most of the fishes call really lite as you have probably observed already. 88 is close. Really players dependent. But 99+ I will just snap everytime...well, unless BB is some 50/30 weirdo...

Am pretty pissed off this hand. And that is because the BTN is a very very good winning regular, well known guy, still I wont tell who to be fair. He has deuces this hand and he is setimining for 1/10 of his stack??? He must know that I have a hand here also...I dont know, it is just silly I guess...
And another thing is, could I fold somehow? His min raise on the flop - so obvious move, but I was like - he cant ever have small pair...did he play tens like that?...
I am really confused, dont think this was some kind of levelling or...so weird hand...

BTN: 1,500 (75 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,500 (75 bb)
BB: 1,500 (75 bb)
UTG+1: 1,500 (75 bb)
UTG+2: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP1: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP2: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP3: 1,500 (75 bb)
CO: 1,500 (75 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A♥ A♦
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls 20, MP1 raises to 40, 3 folds, BTN calls 40, Hero raises to 190, 2 folds, MP1 calls 150, BTN calls 150

Flop: (610) 3♠ 6♣ 2♣ (3 players)
Hero bets 360, MP1 folds, BTN raises to 720, Hero raises to 1,310 and is all-in, BTN calls 590 and is all-in

Turn: (3,230) 9♠ (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (3,230) 6♥ (2 players, 2 are all-in)

His setmining is ok. After all your range for 3betting from SB should be very tight, he close action preflop and it is going to be 3way pot. So his implied odds sre good enough. Without other villain call his call would be bad.

I dont think, that u can setmine for 190 of 1500 eff stack even IP, even in to players...it s just against everything I learned in 9mans If am wrong, I think am going to find another job ♦

Another hand:

MP3: 1,425 (28.5 bb)
CO: 1,475 (29.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 1,275 (25.5 bb)
SB: 1,250 (25 bb)
BB: 1,610 (32.2 bb)
UTG+1: 1,265 (25.3 bb)
UTG+2: 1,465 (29.3 bb)
MP1: 1,455 (29.1 bb)
MP2: 2,280 (45.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J♦ J♥
4 folds, MP3 calls 50, CO folds, Hero raises to 180, SB raises to 310, 3 folds, Hero ?

It s 30$, villain is unknown 25/3 5,3% 3b in 113 hands.

Originally posted by ghaleon
His setmining is ok. After all your range for 3betting from SB should be very tight, he close action preflop and it is going to be 3way pot. So his implied odds sre good enough. Without other villain call his call would be bad.

+1. Without the caller and him closing the action, this is really bad. You should have folded on his re-raise, actually BTN should just push, his re-raise there actually turn his hand face up. I think I know who you are talking about.

Anyway, as hard as it seems, he always have a set here, what else is he re-raising you here with? Pocket 77-TT? No way. He knows the worse you have here is A K cbetting into two opponents OOP. It's tough to lay this hand down, but we have to accept the facts.

I know it is super obv he has a set, I just couldnt fold, also because I just had to see his small pair, it seems ridiculous to me.
I can live with that I played it wrong, should have fold...and I just clearly state here, that I would never ever setmine like that coz I strongly believe it is not profitable, definitely not profitable...

Well, to set mine you need to have around 1/20 in chips on your call as implied odds. I think a lot of pros will tell 1/15 is ok as well. He is putting 190 to play for 4500. He has a fish in the hand, plus your range is very well defined, you have a big pair you will have extremely hard time to fold. Fish might stack off lite as well. So, it's not great, but it's profitable if he knows you are not able to fold AA in these spots. As for the second hand, I will just. He is raising OOP with 25BB eff. with 5,3% 3bet stats. Thats really strong imo. He is never folding there and the best you can hope for is a flip. Even that is optimistic imo. TT, AQ, AK he should shove on your raise.

So, in other words, I will much more inclined to call my Jacks here if he open shoved and the rest of the field folded. Now, his range looks like QQ+ to me. Maybe AK if he feels like messing around.

Second hand - jacks - I fold here, seems standard, just wanted to post it.

Absolutely agree 1/20 is like standard, 1/15 in case IP, maybe more ppl or fishes and so on...BUT...this is not the spot 190 to play for 4500...it is like u would say when u r in the spot with 5 limpers for t20 and u would say it is 20 to play for 9000. U have to take the effective stack...so I stand for that it is 190/1500, even tho there s a fish probably and me with a range like TT+, AJs, KQs maybe wider coz I ll be wider here, coz I know he is calling there most likely to setmine, so I can squeeze/iso to play with the fish...It is just stupid from him, mayn good players did math for these situations and I ve never seen anyone to go under 1/15 IP.

Oh, I didn't know that you will 3bet OOP the fish min raise with TT,KQs or AJs. That's too loose imo. There are possibly 3 people that might call you and we have to play a marginal hand OOP for a bit pot. My range here will be JJ+, AK+. Maybe that looks super tight, but from my experience utg+2 is very rarely folding and I don't want to play TT OOP early for a huge pot. I am not calling if I was in BTN's shoes, but I guess he had the same assumption I do. You have JJ, AK+ in that spot, fish is involved. If he hits, the chances he's getting getting paid off are huge. 150 more to play for a pot of 3000+ the least looks good to me.

Well I said - reg is 99% setmining, will fold. That minraising guy - always fish. And I just think it is +EV for me to iso here, definitely TT...AQ would be super nitty for me not to...whatever...

My very basic attempt at AA hand
7/8 times no set= - 150 chips (1st 40 is in pot so not counted)
7/8 * -150 = -131.25
131.25/(1/8) = 1050 to break even in chips we need to win 1050 every set we hit ~1/8 times

When we stack 1 person = +1760 chips (stack + pot)
1050/1760 ~ 60%
so if we call 150 pre we need to stack someone 60% of the time we hit our set.

obv this is super simple and doesnt include many factors like
-ICM
-winning without a set
-losing with a set
-stacking both players
-not stacking players but still winning bets
-my calcs may be completely wrong
-etc, so would likely be >60%

With a TT+ AQ+ range and assuming that your stacking off with top pair top kicker or better on favourable flops (i.e. not monotone, 3 to a straight, etc) is maybe 35-40% (JJ+ AK+ would be closer to 40%)

I guess MP2 stacks off ~20-25% since they have a much wider range but also wider stack off range

even with high stack off % assumptions we're not getting close to the required 60%

So yeah, I think his call or my math is pretty bad.
Hope it makes sense

it's not 190/1500 Milane. He put 40 chips before calling 190, it means he setmines now 150 chips. However, i am willing to call max. 120 chips in those spots and only IP and with 2+ more villains, 150 is definitely bad (imo u should have 3+ players and at leas 66+, 99-(TT) hand). But it's not a really big deal, can find many many worse things (leaks) in poker

JJ is fold in vacuum (saying nitty player ;)) ...the villain can do those things only once for a long time. If more often i will ship it and make a note.

Schrader, very very nice! I remember lessonthree, pzhon, alkaatch and many others to calculate it and as I said, 1/15 at least. Ofc there are differences - how many players, position, what types of players and so on, but still...this spot is a clear mistake to setmine.

L4nce, obv 150 more, I was distructed with few things home, my bad
JJ is funny - I mean, it is snap fold, obvious fold, blah blah and still QQ is a snap shove ♦ With a note or higher pfr and so on, it is in

I ll post next update soon, possibly tommorow, I am kinda tired, but had a great session finally - it is like +500/-500/+500....hate that. Also I somehow finished 20-30th at BoP, no bubble and I cashed in 100k freeroll for 40$ (about 600th place / 7000 players when I shiped over MP raisor 19bbs eff from sb with AJo and was snapcalled by K9 lol...it was for 4 averages ♦

Ok, 10k weeeeeeee
Was definitely a good thousand, would have been better if I didnt have these sick downers when u lose 20 sngs in a row and climb it up another 150 But what am I complaining, I did climb it up always!!! I do play 30$ again, not many, but they are soft enough. I am about BE there, but it significantly adds some VPPs, that s very needed. My wife is ill, I might be too, soo, every VPP is welcomed, dont wanna work on Christmass eve even tho it s possible ♦
Looking forward to January, relax...

Numbeeers:

Tournaments: 10006
Winning 5870$
Hours: 427,0
Avg Buyin: 15,37$
ROI: 3,8%
:spade:Hourly: 13,7$
:spade:VPPs left to Supernova: 27,098
:spade:FPPs: 136,718

Definitely a mistake to call deuces there. Even without calculations it's a clear leaking spot.

Nice work. How much rakeback will you get with Supernova?

This year I ll get "only" better cashback possibilities - 4,000$ cash for 250,000FPPs and some stellar milestones worth about 500$. But I gain the status for the next year and the most needed is 3,5x multiplier fof FPPs, when platinum is 2,5x. So with that i plan 200k VPPs next year and it should be aprox 41-45% RB (15k $).

Definitely a nice addon to your 4% ROI.

Yes, definitely.

I go for hourly at first place. Means, if I put some rough numbers, something like that:

With RB, it isnt 3,8%, but 8% and my hourly is 18,9$
Next year it ll be even slightly better with the same ROI...

I would have to have like 10%+ clear ROI if I would like to spend same amount of time and win the same money and ofc table select, play much less tables and so on...and still I wouldnt make this hourly

Clear ROIs are overrated, it's not for nowadays sngs imo. On Ongame if you practice hard to multitable on their shitty software you can get $15 hourly being breakeven already at $11s. On Stars due to lower rake you have bigger winning ROIs but less rakeback... same thing.