What a sick winrate! (it's only 6max or HU games too?)
I wish for half of that... You can catch on me w/o any worries since I almost didnt play last few days and if I do, 1000-2000 hands per day were maximum. Downswing stopped me, but I'll be back on 17th so you have few days 
btw: are you playing by 750/500 BRM?
Great blog! Great progress! Keep it on and see you @ 30/60 in January 
Keep at it Alex and ***, you guys are on a roll.
/edit by opal: why to use my last name? And if u really want to, w/o mistake please
Lols, I play 6-max but a lot of super-short and a bit of HU when the games are filling up, I still make a few tilty mistakes so it could be higher but overall I've run a bit better than expectation probably cause I don't know if I'm really 2BB/100 material 
I don't have a set BRM, I'm probably holding out for a good 800BBs before trying 5/T again. Right now I feel pretty cosy with my 1000+ for 3/6.
Originally posted by TerrorBlade
Right now I feel pretty cosy with my 1000+ for 3/6.
I felt the same @ 5/T a week ago... it's past tense... 
Maybe switch to 3/6 and continue there for a while, remember once you get supernova you'll have like a million $ in FPPs.
Well, it's impossible, because I moved to Mansion for a while and 3/6 is unplayable with 3.36 BB/100 rake there... so will play few more 5/T hands and move back to Stars or crush that limit - no other option 
anyway, it's not my blog so I'm sorry for unrelated stuff..
Yesterday after 2200 hands I was up ~60BB, then convinced myself out of "banking" my winnings and grinded on, I ended down ~70BB for the day after 3200 hands 
Today I was planning on getting some good volume in but my computer has been afflicted by a virus that's basically infected and overwritten explorer.exe not to mention a metric fuckton of other programs on my computer, I can't run any poker software or HEM so going to have to format and start from scratch. I'm in the process of backing up my HH's so I can reimport them into a new DB.
Hopefully it'll only be a couple of hours or so
Ayayay....
My computer is fresh and clean, with the minimum programs required to survive. Firefox, Skype, pokerstars and holdem manager not to mention a few miscellaneous others. It's running really fast and my explorer.exe isn't hijacked thus my PC is no longer a spam zombie.
Last couple of days haven't been great, lots of up and down but mostly slight down.
Today was pretty sick, when I started in the morning I just wasn't feeling into it and only played ~ 600 hands dropping 75BB so I took a break, watched a couple of videos and came back in the afternoon, after 2800 hands down another 26BB so not a great day overall but got decent volume in.
I was 6-8 tabling so I think I'm going to cut it to 6 MAXIMUM for a while because at the moment volume doesn't help me as much as it will when I'm supernova so I'd rather have a winrate
Anyways I'm surprised at how fast my points are climbing! Supernova feels like a reality within a couple of months at the maximum! I've already earned about 1500$ in FPPs now I just have to build up a BR for 5/T when the serious poker can begin
BR = 6038$
VPPs = 37,381/100k for supernova!
FPPs = 95,654
I just calculated that I need 62619 VPP for supernova, therefore I'll get another 150k FPPs before then, therefore I'll be able to start working on a 4k$ bonus as soon as I hit supernova ♦ If I break even until then I'll be able to start at 5/T right away when that happens, but hopefully a slow and steady climb will have me there long before.
Btw anyone wanting sweat sessions my skype is dakrynveii I'm keen any time I'm on skype it doesn't matter what limit you play!
Btw anyone wanting sweat sessions my skype is dakrynveii I'm keen any time I'm on skype it doesn't matter what limit you play!
added on skype :).
16/04/09
Today wasn't great, I dropped ~65 BB after about 2500 hands (I was playing under 6 or 6 maximum at all times) and was feeling pretty below average about the games which is what happens when you feel like you've folded the last 1000 hands in a row cause of no pair no draw. I always feel a lot more confident after watching videos so from now on I'm not going to jump straight into playing in the morning but will watch a vid first.
FL SH is fun
HI.......A question....hopes its not too personall
As a pro, what monthly earnings are you aiming for?
Good question andyb43
I have been "pro" for about 2 weeks ago, everything is experimental and subject to change. My goal within the next 2-3 months is to reach supernova, and thus reach 5/T (I'll have a 4k bonus to clear = enough BR for 5/T).
Platinum Star
3/6 right now yields 0.7 VPP/hand and with platinumstar VIP on PokerStars which is a 2.5 multiplier thus 1.75 FPP/hand. The 4K supernova cash bonus costs 250k FPP thus I need to play 142k hands to earn this. I've played 30k hands this month so far which is less than I expected but at this rate assuming (this is a very conservative figure):
60K hands per month = 1.69k$ in bonus + ~600 or so in top 250 promotion payouts (maybe more) + winrate of lets say +0.5BB/100 (1800$) = 2.4k$
Platinum star + 3/6 is not that great. The above winrate is kinda lower than I might expect but I'm talking in minimums here. My winrate over 50k hands is ~1.6BB/100 but variance and such it could easily be above the true figure significantly, however it is a reasonable sample size to say that I am likely a winner at this limit.
Supernova
Until I get supernova it's not great but once I reach supernova/5/T it changes a bit.
5/T yields 1.07 VPP/hand. Supernova multiplier is 3.5.
5/T FPP/hand = 3.5 x 1.07 = ~3.7 VPP/hand which is more than DOUBLE what I get playing 3/6 @ platinum star, wow.
To get 250k FPPs for the 4k bonus we need to play... 67k hands, awesome.
Let's fudge the numbers a bit and say that I can do 67k in a month
Total earnings = 4k + more like 1000 or more in top 250 (the sky is the limit here really) + .5BB/100 (3350) = 8350$
I'd be over the moon about having this kind of income by lets say...the month beginning August? The calculations above don't factor in variance really and my winrate from month to month could be anywhere from 1.5BB/100 down to -2BB/100 as such swings can happen over such a small sample. The great thing about the bonus though is it pretty much negates downswings to a certain point.
If you think about best case scenario if I ran 1+bb/100 over a month +2k in top 250 + 4K in bonus it gets pretty crazy. 5/T is going to be a good basis for developing a solid BR for next year where I start paying rent and I'll have thousands of BBs to fall back on in the case of extreme swings. Also the BR will give me a means to attempt 10/20 and hopefully supernova elite next year (5x FPP multiplier...*drools*).
Originally posted by TerrorBlade
The calculations above don't factor in variance really and my winrate from month to month could be anywhere from 1.5BB/100 down to -2BB/100 as such swings can happen over such a small sample.
I guess these are the months you really need to mentally prepare yourself for, and are where the true test will lie in the formative stages of your career, 'cause running like that for a month will be [extreme understatement] ugly [/extreme understatement].
On the plus side you have a huge amount of moral support backing you on the boards here, and I'm sure we'll do our best to accept any venting you need to do during these periods! Or just tell you to suck it up.. whatever you need to hear anyway.
Yea Alex no doubt, I'm crazy cheering you on (sorry for missing last weekends sweat sessions btw I was insanely hung over... drinking with Swedes don't wanna talk about it).
I'm considering the possibilities of what you're attempting as well. If nothing else it's really amped up my studying and increased my motivation to play poker. Diamond is looking like a real possibility for me within a month or so assuming I don't get busted down a limit.
Nice calculations, but let me don't agree with some of them
0.5 BB/100 hands is WAY below your real winrate on that limit and YOU know that, but ok..
0.7 VPP/hand is too low. I played >50k hands 3/6 there and it was at 0.78-0.8. I know it depends on table selection, but 0.75 is minimum you can have long term. By my short experience @ PokerStars' 5/10 I can say that 1.07 VPP/hand is too low too. You can count with ~1.15 in the long run.
It's possible to have over 1.2 with very good table selection imo.
If 8k/month is nice, count it again 1 limit higher: There're real money ♦
I think TerrorBlade is correct by making calculations that way. "Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best"
Originally posted by opal99
Nice calculations, but let me don't agree with some of them0.5 BB/100 hands is WAY below your real winrate on that limit and YOU know that, but ok..
0.7 VPP/hand is too low. I played >50k hands 3/6 there and it was at 0.78-0.8. I know it depends on table selection, but 0.75 is minimum you can have long term. By my short experience @ PokerStars' 5/10 I can say that 1.07 VPP/hand is too low too.
It's possible to have over 1.2 with very good table selection imo.If 8k/month is nice, count it again 1 limit higher: There're real money ♦
I tried to be conservative in calculating what would probably be a below-average month, I'm not sure what my real winrate on 3/6 is but I hope that it's quite far about 0.5BB/100.
My VPP/hand for 3/6 is 0.71 after 48k hands- maybe it's just my style that makes it this way? I don't have enough on 5/T but after 4k hands it's 1.09VPP/hand.
Ty for the support you guys
VPP is something player points (maybe VIP player points?) which is the centre of pokerstars VIP program.
FPP is frequent player points
You get VPPs every time the amount raked in a pot get's greater than X. You get FPPs based on your VIP level, i.e. platinum star = VPPs X 2.5 and you use FPPs to buy cash bonuses like partypoker's new system or ipods etc.
