weird. i guess ive been doing it wrong all this time lol..
edit: stupid me ofc u add them together, probably better for me to not get involved and lose my money at the tables instead >.<
don't worry i realised i do calculate it right in my head at the tables but when ur actually thinking about it lol
Omg I love the discussion going on here 
Awesome to even see new faces posting in here!
Fongie made a good point in a handevaluation where he said smt like: If you can't see what hand a (L)TAG can do this with either for value or as bluff, it's mostly for value.
I think it's normally a good point but I mean he'll normally cb a strong hand like always here so is it really THAT unlikely he is bluffing 30% of the time? I honestly remembering making plays like this once upon a time myself.
I imagine it being like, to passive/scared to cb 3w, then realizing he doesn't wanna fold... doesnt wanna db turn, nor c/f so c/c is only option... and now that he see's the rivercard, he's pretty sure he can bluff me off my hand because he's pretty sure I don't have much and thats about as far as he thinks. 
Thats how I used to do it 
@ JB: Hmm. It's not the 50/x guy. ^^ He folded on the flop. Or what did you mean?
Anyway thank you very much everyone who's posted! 
Originally posted by vonki
@ JB: Hmm. It's not the 50/x guy. ^^ He folded on the flop. Or what did you mean?
I said if he was 50/x it's a fold.
So did you call? He had Q :club:9 
right?
Wow sick. I wonder if he willingly turned his hand into a bluff (which is a bad play here imo since Jx will call 90% of the time on NL20) or if he was randomly buttonclicking (I have a strong tendency towards the second option).
Originally posted by vonki
Okay fine. Guess it's time to reveal the hand!So yea, he turned up with TT
That's the sort of brain dead river bet that I used to make before TT beat me up often enough that I decided to stop.
Originally posted by muebarek
Wow sick. I wonder if he willingly turned his hand into a bluff (which is a bad play here imo since Jx will call 90% of the time on NL20) or if he was randomly buttonclicking (I have a strong tendency towards the second option).
Originally posted by jbpatzer
That's the sort of brain dead river bet that I used to make before TT beat me up often enough that I decided to stop.
This. I used to do it aswell, which is why I think we CAN (on this limit) expect him to show up with bluffs often enough to make it a clear call. ♦
@ muebarek:
many misconceptions in your thought process imo. villains on such a limit don't have any idea what terms like "made hand" "relative hand strength" or "turning made hand into a bluff" mean. not at all.
ofc they dont "turn a made hand into a bluff" when they play A9 that way. but they just do what feels natural to them. c/c down cuz they have a pair and on the river they dont know exactly what to do and just bet cuz if feels to be their best option/feels naturally right to them. they have no sort of strategy behind their game. thats why u need to absolutely understand math and thats why this is the easiest snapcall on the river, not cuz of board texture or ranges ... cuz u only need to be good one in three and still turn a profit!!! almost impossible that that is not the case.
i didnt wanna write it before and i think u should forget about it after u read it. but to make things clear. i value raise the river 2.5x before i fold this hand. i think the decision whether to call or raise is waaaaaaay closer than folding vs calling.
and if u start telling me "my range looks soo strong, what weaker hand in his range can call .... " => i tell u its nl20 and if he has KQ, AJ he is just not folding to a 2.5x raise on the river.
my suggestion to everyone who thinks about folding here: play 10k hands of live poker. nl100 or 200. and your gameplan should be to only focus on river actions by all plrs at the table. also plan on make light calls even if u think they could be -ev longterm. just to see many showdowns. that will help u realise that recreational plrs have absolutely no clue about the basics of the game and just do what feels naturally to them.
@ prof: pls coach toby some elementary maths! 
Follow me on Snapchat and Twitter @Tw1ceT
The Education of a Modern Poker Player by TwiceT, jbpatzer & EmanuelC16
Originally posted by TwiceT
@ prof: pls coach toby some elementary maths!
He can't afford me.
@TT: Well, yeah. After seeing the results, I have to admit you're 100% right! And I remember seeing this kind of bet quite frequently when I played NL25, but I just didn't think now that the game has developed a lot even on lower limits and many people keep complaining how much tougher these limits have become, the presumably somewhat thinking players (33/25) would still make elementary mistakes like this...
ty very much for writing the novel you planned on not writing, I'm sure everyone else aprechiates it as much as I do 
Feels pretty good to have had thought at least somewhat similar to those of mr TwiceT 
Correct ♦ The simple statement "You only have to be good 1 in 3 times to profit" makes it such an obvious call it's unbelievable ♦ Before this whole analysis i'd be folding the river like the idiot I am!
Originally posted by TwiceT
@ muebarek:many misconceptions in your thought process imo. villains on such a limit don't have any idea what terms like "made hand" "relative hand strength" or "turning made hand into a bluff" mean. not at all.
ofc they dont "turn a made hand into a bluff" when they play A9 that way. but they just do what feels natural to them. c/c down cuz they have a pair and on the river they dont know exactly what to do and just bet cuz if feels to be their best option/feels naturally right to them. they have no sort of strategy behind their game. thats why u need to absolutely understand math and thats why this is the easiest snapcall on the river, not cuz of board texture or ranges ... cuz u only need to be good one in three and still turn a profit!!! almost impossible that that is not the case.
i didnt wanna write it before and i think u should forget about it after u read it. but to make things clear. i value raise the river 2.5x before i fold this hand. i think the decision whether to call or raise is waaaaaaay closer than folding vs calling.
and if u start telling me "my range looks soo strong, what weaker hand in his range can call .... " => i tell u its nl20 and if he has KQ, AJ he is just not folding to a 2.5x raise on the river.
my suggestion to everyone who thinks about folding here: play 10k hands of live poker. nl100 or 200. and your gameplan should be to only focus on river actions by all plrs at the table. also plan on make light calls even if u think they could be -ev longterm. just to see many showdowns. that will help u realise that recreational plrs have absolutely no clue about the basics of the game and just do what feels naturally to them.
@ prof: pls coach toby some elementary maths!
+1!!! btw where is the "like" button? ♦
you deserve a novel for that
Originally posted by TwiceTmy suggestion to everyone who thinks about folding here: play 10k hands of live poker. nl100 or 200. and your gameplan should be to only focus on river actions by all plrs at the table.
10k hands that would be 500 hours of live poker
Much respect to you TwiceT though, i really love how you broke it down
Originally posted by muebarek
@TT: Well, yeah. After seeing the results, I have to admit you're 100% right! And I remember seeing this kind of bet quite frequently when I played NL25, but I just didn't think now that the game has developed a lot even on lower limits and many people keep complaining how much tougher these limits have become, the presumably somewhat thinking players (33/25) would still make elementary mistakes like this...
To add a bit more discussion, I think the keypoint of this hand is the flop. You assume that a player nowadays playing 33/25 is a somewhat thinking player, but what caused me to assume he is most likely not is him not cbetting this flop.
I would assume any decent thinking player would cb this flop with the whole range he intends to continue with. I'd cb any Jx, any TT, any oesd. Or is there something I'm missing?
So I'm not saying all players on NL25 will cb this spot, but I'm also not saying all of them are thinking players. ♦
Sorry if I'm pushing it too far! ♦ I just get excited when I was right about something 
I feel so excited!! It was quite unexpected even though I have 2 siblings who are 22+. So it feels kind of strange. Haha, me, auntie?
I can't wait to find out more details, my stephdad excidentally spilled the news my mom had tried to keep quiet so that my brother could announce it himself. ♦ Weeee.
xoxo
gratssss vonki! ♦
I recently became an uncle for the first time. It's awesome, trust me!
Now you'll just have to wait for a bit while it's on it's way! 
But once it's here you'll love it
