Poker Run

Quick Facts by PokerStrategy

• A run in poker refers to your short-term results, which are affected by variance.
• Variance is the statistical gap between your actual and expected results.
• Running good means an unexpected upswing; running bad means a downswing.
• Both running good and bad can impact your mental game.

What Is a Run in Poker?

A run in poker refers to the short term ups and downs in results that every player experiences. This is due to the element of chance that is inherent in the game. Even very skilled players with high win rates go through dramatic fluctuations.

Results are never steady in poker.

Understanding how runs work helps you stay grounded when things get tough and avoid overconfidence when things go well. The sooner you accept variance as part of the game, the better equipped you’ll be to handle whatever run you’re on.

How Poker Runs Happen: Variance in Poker

Poker is a game of part skill and part chance. The aim is to make decisions that are profitable in the long run. In the short term, though, anything can happen.

In a technical sense, how you are running in poker refers to statistical variance.

Your results can deviate wildly from your expected value or win rate. You can’t control these short-term outcomes, so you will inevitably go on heaters and bad runs in poker — even on soft online poker sites where your edge over the field is significant.

What you can control is your decisions. With enough volume, your results will more closely align with your actual win rate.

Bad Run in Poker

A bad poker run is known as a downswing, or running bad.

This is when your results fall well below your expected win rate. You could be making correct decisions, but due to forces that are beyond your control (variance), the cards are not falling your way.

When you are running bad in poker, you’ll experience several of the following:

• Losing hands even when you are the favourite.
• Running decent hands into even stronger hands, known as a cooler.
• Not getting any value when you have a strong hand.

If you’re experiencing a true bad run in poker, then those outcomes will accumulate into a spell of bad results known as a downswing.

Hot Run in Poker

The opposite of this is an upswing, or running good.

This is when results run above your expected win rate. A hot run feels great. This time, the element of chance is on your side… for now.

These are some of the characteristics of a hot run in poker:

• Consistently getting dealt strong and playable hands.
• Winning pots, whether you are ahead or behind.
• Avoiding coolers and not running into unavoidable spots.

If these positive outcomes persist, they lead to an upswing in results beyond your expected win rate. Enjoy it.

What is a sun run in poker? A sun run in poker is when you are running really, really hot. Everything is going your way, and your results have skyrocketed because of variance.

Poker Runs & Winrate

A poker run is always compared to a player’s win rate.

If your usual results show a slight loss over a large sample, then a downswing is not just losing – it’s losing by a lot more than usual. If you’re a breakeven player, or close to it, your results are nearly entirely dictated by variance. Having a higher win rate, meanwhile, reduces the overall negative impact of variance on results.

You’ll still experience downswings, but not to as much of an extreme.

The Psychology of Experiencing a Run

Running good or bad in poker can have psychological effects on players, especially if you are inexperienced and not used to facing bad beats or dealing with extreme swings. To effectively deal with the mental aspects of variance, it’s important that you remain disciplined and stay in control of your emotions.

Running Bad & Tilt

A bad run in poker can cause you to go on tilt, an emotional state that impacts the quality of your decisions. In most cases, tilt arises from the anger or frustration you feel after continuously losing hands or getting bad beats.

When emotions take over, decisions become shrouded, and you’re more likely to throw chips away. This can further compound your run, and pretty soon, it becomes hard to separate a bad run from bad play.

Tips for Dealing With Tilt in Poker

As you gain experience, you’ll have greater control of your emotions. Still, you should always be actively taking steps to prevent tilt and minimize its impact on your decisions:

• Switch to ABC poker when you feel emotions rising.
• Take a short break if needed to cool off from a bad run.
• Have a bankroll that can cushion you against downswings.
• Develop a mindset that accounts for the omnipresence of variance.

Keeping tilt under control stops a bad run from getting a whole lot worse.

Psychology of a Good Run in Poker

Good runs are obviously easier to deal with than bad runs.

When everything is going your way and you seem to be winning every hand, poker is nothing short of a dream. That doesn’t mean you should let your guard down, though.

If you start playing any two cards thinking you can’t lose, your good run will be over much sooner than it would have been. Feeling invincible and playing recklessly can hurt your win rate and cut your upswing short.

Don’t get too overconfident. Just carry on playing your best poker.

Reviewing Your Gameplay

It’s tough to remain objective when it comes to poker results, especially when you’re in the grips of a downswing.

The best way to make sure that your bad run is because of variance and not down to your own play is to review your session. This allows you to look at hands from an outside perspective and analyze tough spots to see if you’re still on track.

Pay close attention to spots where you felt you had no choice — these are often where leaks hide in plain sight. Consistent session reviews over time will show you patterns in your play that are impossible to spot in the heat of the moment.

Managing Bankroll During a Poker Run

One of the key aspects of managing bad runs and downswings is bankroll management.

By playing stakes that are well within your limit, the outcome of each individual hand or game won’t feel as damaging. If you’re playing stakes that are quite high compared to your bankroll, downswings will hit you hard, both financially and psychologically.

Your bankroll provides a psychological and financial cushion against downswings, allowing you to continue focusing on making the best decisions possible and improving your win rate.

When to Take a Break During a Bad Run

Sometimes, a bad run gets so brutal that you’ll no longer have the heart to play. If this happens, it’s time to take a break.

• Take a short break from the tables when consecutive bad beats put you on tilt.
• End your session early or take a couple of days off when you feel disheartened from running bad.
• Take a longer break from poker if you are no longer enjoying the game because of variance and its impact on results.

A break might be just what you need to come back to the tables feeling refreshed and ready to play your A-game again.

Examples of Famous Poker Runs

Here are some examples of famous poker runs, starting with a good run in a tournament and moving on to a bad run that lasted for months.

Joe Cada – 2009 Main Event

Joe Cada came to the 2009 WSOP final table as one of the shortest stacks and at one point was down to just four big blinds with seven players left, around 1.2% of the total chips in play.

He survived numerous all-ins on his way to victory, including beating his opponent’s pocket jacks with pocket threes, earning $8.5 million for first place.

Cada’s run showed the true nature of variance within a single tournament. At points, it may have looked like he was running bad. But ultimately, everything fell into place at the right times to bring Cada the result of a lifetime.

Daniel Negreanu – $1M+ Downswing (2016–2017)

Daniel Negreanu is one of the most famous poker players in the world, and with over $57 million in live tournament winnings, he has proven elite-level success.

However, even players like Negreanu suffer from variance and go on prolonged downswings.

In 2017, Negreanu reported roughly $1.2 million in tournament losses. The year before, he also had a losing year. Negreanu said that he was running massively under expectation during these two years, a mammoth downswing that would make any player question their sanity and strategy.

Common Misconceptions About Poker Runs

Here are some of the most common misconceptions about poker runs:

• Winning players don’t have downswings: Not true. Even top pros with high win rates experience prolonged downswings and bad runs in poker. Variance impacts everyone.
• Due for a win: It’s a fallacy that you’re ever due for a win. Even if you lose 10 coin flips in a row, the next one is still 50-50. The deck doesn’t owe you anything.
• Heaters and bad runs reflect the quality of play: Not necessarily. Short-term results often reflect variance more than skill or quality of decision-making. Only very long-term results more accurately reflect the win rate.
• Live poker has less variance: This is not true, unless the game is actually softer. Live poker sometimes feels like it has less variance because of the lower volume. Online, you’ll play loads more games in a shorter space of time, which makes upswings and downswings feel more pronounced.
• Can’t win a hand: After a lot of bad beats and coolers, it can feel like you can’t win a hand. If you’re making the right decisions, you have to trust the process and overcome the variance. It will pass.

Alternative Definitions for “Run in Poker”

Run in poker can also have a couple of other definitions that we’ll briefly cover here:

• Running it once or twice: In some poker cash games during all-ins, players have the option to run the deck out once, twice, or even three times. For example, when running it twice in poker, the dealer fans out the community cards for two boards, and the pot is split evenly.
• Straight in poker: A run is also an alternative name for a straight in poker, a hand with five consecutive cards of any suit.

While these definitions differ from the main concept of running good or bad, they are all part of the broader poker vocabulary that every serious player should be familiar with.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a run in poker?

A run in poker refers to swings in your usual results due to chance, also known as variance. You can have upswings or downswings in poker.

How long can a bad run last in poker?

There is no limit to how long a bad run can last in poker. However, the more volume you put in, the more likely it is that your results reflect something close to your true win rate. Skill prevails in the long run.

What is a heater in poker?

A heater in poker is a rapid winning streak that may come as a sudden boost of chips in a tournament, a bunch of significant hands that go your way in a cash game, or a longer spell of profitable results.

What is tilt in poker?

Tilt is an emotional state in poker that causes you to play suboptimally. Tilt most often happens due to bad beats and downswings.

How should I manage my bankroll during a downswing?

Bankroll management is important for cushioning yourself against downswings. By playing stakes that are low relative to your overall bankroll, you’ll be able to afford to lose buy-ins and play through any bad runs in poker.

Do professional players also experience runs of bad luck?

Even professional players experience runs of bad luck. It happens to everyone, regardless of skill level. However, professional players have a greater edge over the field and can put in enough volume to eventually smooth out their results.