Lo so ragazzi, anch'io quando leggo di chi si lamenta per presunte bad beat su questo o quel sito, mi viene istintivo pensare che a questo giochino è facile prendersela con la sorte avversa, ma ultimamente ai microlimiti di PS si vedono delle cose allucinanti...
Ma statisticamente quante possibilità ci sono che si vedano in un'unica sessione le seguenti mani?
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $21.01 (210.1 bb)
Hero (MP): $11.38 (113.8 bb)
CO: $17.77 (177.7 bb)
BTN: $11.15 (111.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with T
T
UTG raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, UTG raises to $1.30, Hero calls $0.55
Flop: ($2.75) 3
3 T
(2 players)
UTG bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60
Turn: ($7.95) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.48 and is all-in
River: ($22.91) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results:
Spoiler
$22.91 pot ($1.26 rake)
Final Board: 3 3 T 8 8
UTG showed 8 8 and won $21.65 ($10.27 net)
Hero showed T T and lost (-$11.38 net)
Penso, dai ci sta...
Ma subito dopo:
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.27 (102.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.25 (102.5 bb)
MP: $13.09 (130.9 bb)
CO: $11.24 (112.4 bb)
BTN: $3.73 (37.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
MP raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP calls $0.70
Flop: ($2.05) 6 8 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP raises to $3, Hero raises to $9.25 and is all-in, MP calls $6.25
Turn: ($20.55) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($20.55) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results:
Spoiler
$20.55 pot ($1.13 rake)
Final Board: 6 8 7 Q 4
Hero showed K K and lost (-$10.25 net)
MP showed A A and won $19.42 ($9.17 net)
E qui riconosco i decisi lineamenti di una sessione "spigolosa":
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (SB): $11.43 (114.3 bb)
BB: $6.93 (69.3 bb)
MP: $8.27 (82.7 bb)
CO: $13.18 (131.8 bb)
BTN: $12.06 (120.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K A
MP raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.70, BB raises to $6.93 and is all-in, MP folds, Hero calls $6.23
Flop: ($14.06) T 9 K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: ($14.06) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($14.06) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results:
Spoiler
$14.06 pot ($0.77 rake)
Final Board: T 9 K 4 J
Hero showed K A and lost (-$6.93 net)
BB showed A Q and won $13.29 ($6.36 net)
Evviva, penso, peggio di così difficilmente andrà: quanto mi sbagliavo...
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $11.03 (110.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.34 (103.4 bb)
UTG: $9.07 (90.7 bb)
MP: $11.48 (114.8 bb)
CO: $7.02 (70.2 bb)
BTN: $4.69 (46.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.95, BTN calls $0.65
Flop: ($1.95) 2 4 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BTN raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $9.35, BTN calls $1.24 and is all-in
Turn: ($9.43) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($9.43) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results:
Spoiler
$9.43 pot ($0.51 rake)
Final Board: 2 4 6 J 3
Hero showed J A and won $0.00 (-$4.69 net)
BTN showed 5 7 and won $8.92 ($4.23 net)
Che sessioncina!
Un discreto mindset e una corretta gestione del bankroll (grazie Poker Strategy!) mi permettono di superare queste sessioni con una certa tranquillità, ma inizio a notarle con una frequenza allarmante...
