News: GTO Poker Theories: The Red Queen Effect

If you cannot adapt it gets harder and harder just to stay in the same place, very important to understand in an evolving game like poker.

One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable in this game we know and love.

The Red Queen Effect is an evolutionary theory that has been adopted by business, especially in the digital age. Named after the Red Queen from Alice in Wonderland, who once said “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.”

The theory states that organisms must constantly adapt and evolve not just to reproduce but to survive within their competitive habitats. To mirror what Charles Darwin said - “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

The theory explains why some species go extinct, because they didn't adapt. Take a typical predator/prey scenario. If a species easily can find and kill their prey they will thrive, for a while, until their prey dies out and then they too will starve to death. However, since the dawn of time some predator and prey species have had a reciprocal impact on each other's survival. The predator will get stronger so the prey will get faster, so the predator will get smarter and the prey will learn to camouflage itself, and so on.

Be Netflix, not Blockbuster

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The Red Queen Effect has been used as metaphor in business, particularly in the last few decades where we have had majorly disruptive technological changes thanks to the internet. No amount of money or effort can fix a business that is not changing with the times.

Look at, for example, Blockbuster Video, who were once a powerhouse of home entertainment and are now a cautionary tale of not adapting quick enough. Contrast that with Netflix who were very similar, a mail order DVD service, who adapted and changed the landscape of entertainment and content streaming.

You can witness the same thing at an individual level. Our parents were sold the idea that they would have a 'job for life' at the company they left school for. Just think of how devastating it would be for those employees to have their industry completely upended and they developed no transferrable skills to find another job (I often use the example of a typewriter repairer to illustrate this). Being self employed and/or freelance is very stressful, but you constantly have to adapt what you do, which has an element of security to it (I discussed this recently with Dara O'Kearney).

The evolution of poker

erik seidel — Erik Seidel is a good example of a player who adapted after the boom

I'll bring this around to poker in what will no doubt be quite an obvious way. The game has changed dramatically over the years and it is the players who are able to adapt to those changes that will survive.

Just look at the impact of online poker. A few years ago I watched this documentary which featured a lot of the top players pre-Boom and when they discussed the game their almost entire strategy focus was on physical tells. Not only did online poker do away with that aspect of the game but the strategy evolution that followed it brought in widespread use of concepts like ranges, equities, ICM, EV calculations, HUD stats and much more.

A lot of the great players from before the Boom did not survive after it because they were unable to make these changes. Before you scoff at them, don't underestimate the changes happening to the game right now that you may not have adapted to yet. Are you using solvers, for example? Do you have a good understanding of GTO? Have you studied the ICM adjustments you need to make in PKO tournaments? Good for you if so, because there will always be something new to learn.

It's not just the changes in strategy but the changes in the ecology of poker itself. Not too long ago most players made money by playing high volume and getting generous VIP rewards, but most poker rooms have changed their rewards structure. If you continue to grind a lot of hands for little benefit, it's the same as a business spending more just to maintain their position. If you played 200NL ring games but everyone is playing Zoom, you may struggle to survive purely because of game selection opportunities. If all the recreational players have gone to Spins instead of HUSNGs, why haven't you evolved to follow them?

If you look at some poker forums you'll see a lot of people who have been there years complaining about how the games they used to play have got tougher, or dried up, and how every change made by a poker room or live operator is stupid. They may be right, but complaining about it won't change anything, the only thing you can really do to survive is adapt.

What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.

Be Netflix, not Blockbuster

The evolution of poker

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