2026 Poker Predictions
Barry Carter stares into his crystal ball and makes some 2026 predictions about the Trump tax, poker awards and more.
Players find workarounds to the Trump Bill
You can file this one under hopeful optimism, but I think poker will still find a way in the US when Trump's new gambling tax comes into force. A tax which could, in theory, tax players on money they have not won.
The bill will eventually be repealed, of that I am very confident, but maybe not in 2026.
I have lived through three existential crises in poker - UIGEA, Black Friday and COVID - and poker has always found a way to thrive.
Whether it is a change of game selection, loopholes in tax returns, or simply playing a little bit more under the radar, poker will still happen in the US next year.
A Global Poker Awards replacement
A sad story for industry insiders as the Global Poker Awards announced no 2026 event. It leaves a great big awards show shaped hole in the poker world.
The awards were a thankless difficult job and I do not blame the team behind them for no longer doing them.
I do think that, however, another operator will not heed their warnings about how hard the gig was. Somebody will do their own version of an awards, or buy the Global Poker Award brand from the GPI.
Early guesses would include WPT Club Gold, GGPoker, Poker.org and PokerNews, with a slim chance of a Triton.
Earlybird poker events
Another one you can file under "things I just hope will happen".
Towards the end of 2026 Seth Davies got a surprising amount of traction when he suggested early start times (10AM) in poker tournaments. You finish at reasonable times and if you bust early you can do something else with your day.
I agree with him, and as the world of work changes and the poker demographics get older, I think this would be a hit.
So I expect an operator to trial early start time tournaments in 2026, hopefully somewhere near my house.
The WSOP Paradise documentary never airs
It promised to change the way we viewed poker content and that it would bring in a mainstream audience, but the WSOP Paradise documentary No Limit got pulled midway from YouTube.
It was revealed it used AI generated quotes for at least one of its subjects, and the WSOP pulled it and pledged to reupload it after a significant re-edit.
Even without the AI controversy, the documentary was a glorified advert for the WSOP Paradise and not the game changer in poker entertainment it claimed it was. It also featured favourable footage of Ren Lin, which was broadcast just after his WSOP ban.
For that reason I don't think we will see the end of No Limit, it probably wont get reuploaded to the WSOP YouTube channel, and if it does it will not be promoted with the fanfare it was prior to the AI scandal.
