Why the WSOP Main Event doesn't need a $10 million guaranteed first prize
Following the claim of a guaranteed eight-figure prize for this year's champ, Barry Carter makes an argument for why it isn't a necessity.
Last week the schedule for the 2014 WSOP was leaked. It wasn't a finalised schedule, but it hinted that the Main Event would guarantee at least $10 million for the winner.
It is not a certainty yet, but if true this would make it the second-biggest prize of all time in the Main Event. The only bigger one was Jamie Gold's $12,067,292in 2006, which really was at the peak of poker.
Since then we have a few prizes around the $9 million mark, but more recently Ryan Riess won $8,361,570.
$10 million to the winner is obviously never going to be a bad thing, but is it really necessary for the WSOP to make a guarantee on the Main Event?
Is $8 million not worth playing for?
I don't think anyone is expecting poker to surpass the post-boom heights of 2006 (before the UIGEA, the recession and Black Friday) when 8,773 players bought into the Main Event.
However, I am sure there are people behind the scenes who were concerned that the Main Event had a dip in 2013 with 6,352 entrants compared to the 6,598 entrants of 2012. Perhaps this $10 million guarantee is to entice more people to the Main Event this year?
Guarantees obviously do turn heads. Likewise lottery ticket sales increase whenever there is a rollover, because of the increased prize pool.
However, I am inclined to think that if you are not motivated to play for $8 million, then you probably not motivated to play for $10 million. In poker the simple fact is that (if we discount One Drop) there is only one chance each year for poker players to play for a first prize of more than $3 million, and that is the Main Event. Whether it is a $5 million, $8 million or $10 million first prize really doesn't change anything.
The lottery analogy doesn't work in this case, because a lottery ticket costs the price of a bottle of milk, whereas the price of a Main Event ticket costs the price of a decent second hand car. Lottery sales go up because people can afford to have a gamble on it, but the Main Event is not something (most) people enter on a whim.
More importantly, if you are not motivated to play in the Main Event anyway, you are not going to be motivated by a $10 million guarantee. It is the biggest event of the poker year. Everyone who could justify playing in it will do so because it's the Main Event, not because of a guarantee. Football teams play in the Champions' League because it's the Champions' League; poker players play in the Main Event because it's the Main Event.
Making the Main Event more enticing
If the WSOP wants to make the Main Event more enticing, I think a wiser step might be to make the guarantee benefit more people. Perhaps everyone who makes the November Nine is guaranteed a seven-figure prize or guaranteeing everyone in the top 100 payouts gets a six-figure prize.
Nobody really goes into the Main Event expecting to win it (except Ryan Riess, of course) but making the final table or top 100 seems a lot more plausible.
I've always thought that it would be more appealing to pay more min-cashes in the Main Event, closer to 15-20% of the field because to cash in the Main Event is a real badge of honour for recreational players. It is the sort of thing that would keep them coming back year-on-year.
For these reasons, obviously I hope is that if they fail to meet the guarantee based on their normal payout structure, that they don't take the money from the rest of the prize pool. Any overlay would have to be paid out of their own budget. It would be very unpopular if they did make the players incur the costs, and I doubt highly that they would.
I also thought maybe something like guaranteed sponsorship by the WSOP themselves, or Main Event tickets for life could be an enticing alternative gimmick for the winner (or a $1 million One Drop ticket).
Predicting the growth of US poker?
Before I sound like I hate the idea of a $10 million guarantee, let me state I do see the benefits. The US is now finally returning to offering legal online poker and a $10 million guarantee is a great publicity stunt for online poker, especially sites that offer satellites to the Main Event.
Maybe most importantly, it is a great way to remind Americans that online poker is back and this time the DOJ is not going to take it away. One of the big hurdles for US online poker right now is the image of the legality of the game. Many recreational players do not know if they are allowed to play online poker after years of horror stories after the UIGEA and Black Friday.
The $10 million guarantee is also a very promising prediction of how poker is going to grow. If it happens, this is not a decision that has been made on a whim. The people behind the scenes at the WSOP really understand the industry very well, and if they say $10 million to the winner, it is likely that roughly enough runners are projected to make it happen anyway.
It is rare I disagree with the WSOP, and in this instance even though I don't think a $10 million guarantee is necessary, it can't be a bad thing. If nothing else it makes for a mouth watering prediction for how much growth regulated US poker could bring to live poker.
Do you think a $10 million first prize will improve the Main Event attendance? Do you think the marketing budget could be better invested in other ways? Let me know in the comments box.
by Barry Carter
