Column: Will Poker Get Tougher?

With all the talk of how fast poker has evolved, our columnist Barry Carter asks: can the game get even tougher than it is now?

How much more can poker evolve?

Last month I wrote a column where I pointed out how quickly the game has evolved since the poker boom. It is something poker players have been talking about for several years now, but recently we have all been having a further discussion - how to sustain the poker ecology.

Most notably, PokerStrategy.com CEO Dominik korn Kofert has been leading the charge with some great suggestions on how to take poker forward.

So while we are looking forward to the future, it seems a good time to ask: can poker get even tougher than it is today?

It is a frightening prospect during a time where it is difficult to find a discernible edge at any online table. Nobody could have predicted how tough the game would get ten years ago, but has it reached its peak?

Those of you who have faith in my ability to predict the future will be happy to know that I think we have got to the toughest point poker will be at for a long time. I am not saying that poker is about to get easier (it could), but at least it will stay at this level for a long time.

The main reason I believe in this vision of the future can be summed simply by saying that in 2012, we are all having the right conversations about the future of the game. Whether you are a player, affiliate, or poker room, we appear to be taking steps in the right direction to give the poker ecology a much-needed boost.

The poker ecology

Less reasons to mass multi table?

The current hot topic on everyone's lips is how we can sustain the poker ecology. We are talking about poker rooms making changes to their rake structure, the banning of tracking software, changes in marketing models, increasing net deposits, banning winning players, anonymous tables, or real money social media poker.

Now, whether any of the above topics are going to change poker for the better or worse remains to be seen, but the important thing is that the conversation is taking place with the right end goal in mind.

For example, most poker rooms are moving away from the "dealt" method of rake allocation, to the "weighted contributed" model, which awards people rake (and therefore, rakeback) based on the actual amount they paid.

This method has the potential to make the games easier for two reasons:

Firstly, it will give a little more back to the looser players, which will keep them at the tables longer, which will create more action. Secondly, it gives less incentive for tight grinders to mass multi-table for the rakeback, which will potentially make the games softer, in particular at the low to mid-stakes.

It also seems that there is a trend developing towards making rake lower, especially at the micro stakes. This is great news for everyone, but in particular, will help make those stakes much more playable, as we got to a point where the rake was killing the lower levels.

Poker rooms are currently under fire for practices that are seen to discriminate against winning players, but some of them have the potential to help the state of the games: the banning of HUDs, data mining sites, and tracking software, for example. There appears to be a fine line between what is an acceptable tool for the poker player, and what gives an unfair advantage.

Now is not the time to have the debate over what is acceptable and what is cheating, but there is no doubt that some of these tools give a massive edge to a player over someone who does not even know such software exists. As a result, new players will bust their bankrolls so much quicker. Like it or not, stricter measures on poker tools will make the games softer.

Net deposits

Facebook poker in 2012?

The goals for all poker rooms in 2012 is almost certainly going to be increasing net deposits. The more money deposited by a recreational player, the better it is for everybody.

Again, Dominik Kofert puts it better than I do in his most recent blog on the subject, but whatever the solution to this problem is, most poker rooms will be putting their marketing resource into this endeavour.

One such turning point could be the integration of social media and poker. Everybody got excited when we heard last year that Facebook is entertaining the idea of real money poker, and this is probably one of the most exciting prospects on the horizon for potentially increasing net deposits.

Much in the same vein, 2012 is looking like it could be a big year for mobile poker, which is another potential game changer.

Another important topic being discussed the world over is a regulated poker market. I am not sure what the impact this will have on the relative softness of the games in the countries that currently still play online poker, but you would have to think a fully regulated US market could create something of a mini-boom. For Americans to know they can play poker legally, without fear of the DOJ shutting them, will surely see the rebirth of the American recreational online player.

One reason why poker might stop getting tougher is a simple economic one; people will not stick around forever in tough games. If poker got even harder than it is today, lots of the grinders won't be able to take it. Winning players do not like to become losing players, and eventually we would see a drop in the number of grinders playing, which will in turn, make the games playable again.

I am not for one moment saying that any of the above examples will prove to make the games softer, simply that it would be very hard for poker to continue going in the direction has been doing, especially with so many changes beginning to take place which you would think would take it in the other direction.

Even if poker is about to get a little bit easier, that is certainly no excuse to stop working on your game, far from it. The one thing that is almost certain to improve is the quality of the training material which is available. An improved poker ecology does not mean that people are going to forget what they already knew, nor will they stop improving.

The likelihood is, that although we might see some softer spots at the table, and a lot of regs struggling to cope without software, the better players at the table will be even tougher than they are right now. Thankfully, if you want to be one of those players, you are in the right place to make the most of the best quality training material in poker.

by Barry Carter