Once again, how many runners will the Main Event get this year?
With the news of two extra Day 1s added to the WSOP schedule, Barry Carter revises his prediction of 7,000 runners for the Main Event.
If you had a bet at the start of the year on how many people the Main Event will get you will have had a wild ride. We had vaccine optimism, record US numbers for live events, then vaccine passports all delivering twists and turns. Now we have had the news that overseas travellers will be able to attend at the last minute.
Two extra Day 1s have been added and the overall schedule for the event tweaked a little. Day 1E takes place on November 8, Day 1F takes place on November 9 and late registers can also buy-in on Day 2CEF on November 10. They also have the option to late register on Day 2ABD on November 9, which actually takes place alongside Day 1F.
The revised WSOP Main Event schedule. This will also appear soon at https://t.co/CBiN23ZrMf pic.twitter.com/S7IvHF8Cbt
— WSOP (@WSOP) October 16, 2021
Like most people my mind has changed many times on how many runners the Main Event will get but I started the series suggesting to take the under on 7,000. Now with the latest developments, where do we set the line?
An extra 1,000+ grinders?
The number of people now booking flights is surely in the thousands, though I suspect most of them are serious online grinders. I'm thinking we will get something in the region of 1,000 to 2,000 extra players overall - it would have been way more had it not be such short notice.
Then there is the, probably small, matter that the extended schedule might have opened the event up to a few people already in the States who otherwise would have been unable to attend.
I doubt more than a handful of people who were already planning to attend will cancel as a result of the schedule change. They were all hoping to go deep and play through to the end anyway so this should not have changed much.
Bucket list events get big fields
Looking at the WSOP numbers so far, the high stakes MTTs ($10k+) have been a bit smaller than we come to expect. We've had several $10,000 Championship events with under 100 runners and the $25,000 Heads-up did not meet the player cap.
This would suggest that numbers will be down for any high stakes event, but there is something special about the WSOP Main Event. The $500 Reunion got almost 13,000 entries because it had a $5 million guarantee. That is not an ideal comparison, but the point is that the 'bucket list' events at the WSOP always do well.
8,659 people played the Main Event in 2019 and at the start of the series I suggested 7,000 was the line, of which I would take the under. I still don't think the stars have aligned in such a way that we will see a record field, but I think I'd set the line close to that 2019 field. I now think 8,500 is the line and I would, just, take the under.
Although I am fully prepared for something crazy to hit the news cycle that makes me change my mind suddenly, maybe three more times, before the event starts.
How many runners will the Main Event get? Let us know in the comments.
