Five predictions for the World Series of Poker
This 2021 WSOP will be like no series in history for obvious reasons, Barry Carter shares his predictions for the event which starts this week.
A good series for KidPoker
I never make predictions about which players will win bracelets because you are essentially trying to guess which ones will run good over a small sample. That said, I think Daniel Negreanu is poised to have a good WSOP.
A cynical interpretation of his last couple of years would suggest he simply lost a lot of money to Doug Polk. The reality is Negreanu has worked on his game incredibly hard to keep up with the GTO era of poker.
You only have to watch his YouTube videos to see how much he has developed and now he has sit some form too. I think the $1.2 million he lost to Polk might prove to have been an unlikely investment this year at the WSOP.
Dealer issues
COVID is far from over and it will cause issues at the WSOP, one very tangible one being potential dealer shortages, which are already looking likely.
Not only that, dealers are not required to be vaccinated like the players are which is worrying given they have way more contact with large numbers of people than the players do.
Whether it is shortages, a bunch of them getting ill or just the general standard of dealing not being as good as usual, it seems inevitable that there will be a bumpy ride trying to manage hundreds of dealers for two months.
A COVID related (mini) scandal
It's by no means the WSOP's fault, but with COVID still a presence and vaccine passports a highly contentious issue, I think there is some sort of controversy coming this year.
What could it be? The possibilities seem endless. A fake vaccine pass being used, a COVID related angle shoot, somebody testing positive but not telling anyone, a final tablist disqualified? They all seem plausible.
There will simply be too many people in the Rio for COVID not to make a very unwelcome appearance this year.
Less runners than the 2019 Main Event
There simply is no previous WSOP to compare this to in order to make a prediction on the runners in the Main Event.
We have seen a boom in demand for live poker when it has returned, but vaccine passports, travel restrictions and mask mandates all stop some people attending, not to mention a general fear of the virus.
8,569 people played in the 2019 WSOP Main Event and I would set the line closer to 7,000, taking the under on this one. I think anything over 5,000 would be really good considering all the problems the event has faced because of COVID.
A fondly remembered series
I know some of the above might make it sound like I think the event will be a disaster but that is not the case. All major events right now have the potential for disruption because of COVID. I'm not sure what the WSOP could have done differently under the circumstances, except perhaps insist on vaccinated dealers.
This is a really vague prediction, but I actually think this event will be remembered fondly. Most people appreciate that the WSOP's hands are tied with a lot of things and that they can't do some of the things they did in previous series.
Despite the fact that I expect controversies, it was always going to be a bumpy ride. I actually think people will remember this as a good, albeit unusual, WSOP.
What are your predictions for the WSOP? Let us know in the comments:
