Polk on why THAT fold was a mistake

We round-up some stories you may have missed including why Doug Polk did not like Ian Steinman's fold and Gus Hansen back in the big game.

Polk rips apart the fold of the year

Ian Steinman's fold of a set if Kings at the WPT this month has earned a lot of plaudits and even went viral in the mainstream media, but not everybody is convinced it was a great move.

Last week Doug Polk broke down the hand and gave an alternative perspective, suggesting not only that it might have been a long term mistake but also that it highlights how being a nit is the biggest problem most players have today:   

Just 8lbs away...

It may be remembered as the most epic prop bet in poker history, nobody gave Jaime Staples a chance of being within a 1lb of his brother within a year, but here we are.

With less than two weeks to go, last week Jaime was just 8lbs away from his outlandish goal. Can he do it?

Gus is back in the big action

It looks like in 2018 will see a considerable comeback from the Great Dane Gus Hansen, who last week was back playing in Bobby's Room:


A post shared by Gus Hansen (@therealgushansen) on

He also was the one to watch last week on Poker After Dark, splashing around in big pots like this:

Gus was always one of the most prolific high stakes players in the game but had been missing in action for quite some time following his heavy and much publicised online losses.

Is Gus a permanent fixture again in poker? Was Doug right about that fold? Can Jaime Staples do it? Let us know in the comments:

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Comments (4)

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  • CucumbaMan


    I really liked Doug's analysis, he makes an excellent point.
  • jmackenzie


    I really dislike Doug's analysis. He Ignores how most huge winning players take extremely exploitative lines versus raises from villains. In this situation Ian makes an exploitable donk lead on the river which basically tells Joe he has 2p+. When the large majority of poker players are put in this type of situation they will play fairly straight forward and so i think vs the population Ians line (Whilst exploitative) would be better than calling. Lets not forget that Ian does have the nuts in his range so whilst he may overfold that spot eventually he would see if he was actually being exploited. Imo this is why Doug Polk found it difficult to build a bankroll in his challenge. he was not making highly exploitable lines that are important to do in high rake environments.
  • mbml


    nah it was a terrible fold, i agree that guy rarely bluffs here but there's still a non 0 chance he does. Secondly he could have 77/55 for value, and thirdly he's not supposed to have QTo in his range so he at most reps 1-5 combos of QT with backdoors so this is a clear call.
  • jmackenzie


    77/55 is 6 combos. I think its more likely 3 or 4 combos as theyd often be played aggressively in early streets. I think he has a minimum 8 combos of qt all qto with a heart + qt spades and qt hearts. he needs 30% equity to make the call BEFORE icm considerations that would take it up to i think ATLEAST 40%. Probably a lot higher given they are top2 stacks, but vs this range has 33%. Even if you add in 2 bluff combos which i think is generous its still 40% making it b.e. $ev at best. Really what I want to point out is that its not as clear cut as Doug Polk makes it seem.