Sunday Million vs GGMasters - will they both overlay?

After suspending services to Russian players, could PokerStars suffer a big overlay this weekend like GGPoker are expecting to?

March 20 is going to be one the biggest Sundays in online poker history with the $10 million guaranteed Sunday Million and the $5 million guaranteed GGMasters. For just $375 in combined buy-ins most grinders can justify a shot at life-changing money.

There looks destined to be an overlay this Sunday, while it initially looked like just GG would take one, I’d say the smart money is on both sites paying out a hefty seven-figure sum.

The big question is, which site will take the bigger, relative, hit?

GG are assuming an overlay

The case for GGPoker incurring an overlay is mostly because they have said they will. Their event is $150 to enter with a $5 million guarantee, meaning they need 33,334 entries to avoid an overlay. By comparison PokerStars has a $10 million guarantee with a $215 entry fee, meaning they need 46,512 entries to beat their generous prize pool.

The big difference is GGPoker are hosting a freezeout and PokerStars is allowing multiple re-entries as well as Day 2 late registration. Last year the Sunday Million anniversary event attracted 68,876 entries, of which 45,765 were unique players.

With those numbers, it seems plausible that both events could beat the guarantee. One would have to assume that anybody aware of the Sunday Million is also aware of the GGMasters, so why wouldn’t they play both?

PokerStars have lost a huge market

The elephant in the room is, of course, the crisis in Ukraine. Like many major corporations, PokerStars have suspended services to Russian players as a result of the conflict. This is no small gesture, it will hit them hard and in particular in this event. pokerfuse had already estimated that Stars had seen a traffic reduction of 15% following the crisis and prior to this suspension, that estimate will almost certainly increase dramatically as a result of the suspension.

GGPoker, however, have not suspended Russian traffic from their tables. It is already near impossible for Russian players to get money on or off poker rooms, but the GGMasters will be the only game in town for Russian players. 

Then there is the smaller matter that there is more choice for poker fans outside of Russia right now. Live poker is happening again in most corners of the globe now compared to last year, for example.

I think both poker rooms will incur an overlay this year but PokerStars will incur less of one, relatively, because they allow for re-entries. But an overlay is still an overlay and that makes these events even more of a must play than they were before, for those people still lucky enough to be able to play them.

Which of the two events don't you want to miss? Let us know in the comments: