WSOP/WPT/EPT Predictions

Three of the biggest poker events of 2023 are happening at the same time next month. Barry Carter shares a few predictions about who the 'winners' will be this year.

We are about to embark on one of the most interesting periods I remember in poker when the WSOP, the WPT, and EPT, will all host huge events at the same time. Today i wanted to share a few predictions about the next three weeks. 

Overlays in the WSOP and WPT

WSOP Paradise has a $15 million guarantee with a $5,300 buy-in, so it needs 3,000 entries. The WPT World Championship has a $10,400 buy-in and a $40 million guarantee, so it needs 4,000 entries. 

I think both events miss their guarantee, but the WPT World Championship will improve on the 2,960 runners from last year. In that respect, I think it will get more runners than the WSOP Paradise. 

There is just so much goodwill towards this event after last year that I think it is the must-play event of 2023 for a lot of people who missed it or played it last year. Also, Vegas is just an easier place for people to travel to, which is significant. 

Lots of no-shows at the WSOP

The way in which the WSOP Paradise is structured suggests to me a lot of players with a ticket won't show up to the Bahamas. 

A lot of the packages were added prizes in other tournaments, overlaying satellites where you can take T$ instead, or online legs for the live events. We have already written about whether it is worth travelling all that way for a Day 2 with a short stack, which a lot of players were asking.

This is great for the players as a ton of added value has been given away. I suspect, however, that a lot of players will opt to stay at home and bank a smaller profit on what they have won. Look out for dead stacks on Day 2 of the Main Event. 

A big name wins WSOP Paradise

One of the more interesting promotions during the build-up to WSOP Paradise has been the WSOP Paradise Parlay. Players with 10 cashes between Vegas and the Bahamas can earn an extra $5,000. Players with three final tables can earn an extra $25,000. Anyone who wins a bracelet in each location gets an extra $100,000. 

I think anyone with 7 cashes, two final tables, or a bracelet in Vegas is going to jump on this promotion. In fact, I think GGPoker are going to pay out seven-figures in this promotion. 

This, and the fact I think the Main Event will overlay, makes me think there is a better-than-average chance that the WSOP Paradise Main Event will have a champion we already know well. A 'poker famous' person who was attracted by the Parlay promotion. 

Quite simply the field will be a bit more weighted towards successful players than the WPT. 

EPT Prague does just fine

Nobody seems to want to mention EPT Prague, which is happening at the same time as the WSOP and WPT. Despite the fact there has been no hype, I think it will be deemed a success. 

It had a record field of 1,267 players last year and this year I think there will be enough mainland Europeans not wanting to travel far during Christmas to make for a big event. Much like the WSOPE attracted a record field this month despite very little hype. 

I'd set the line at 1,000 and take the under, but reckon we are looking at a very good showing of 950-ish players. 

WPT is the winner

It's hard to judge the winner in a battle like this. In many ways, a good EPT Prague makes PokerStars the winner because they did nothing extra to promote it. 

For WSOP Paradise to be the winner, the WPT World Championship has to do badly. WSOP Paradise was a throwing down of the gauntlet to challenge the WPT, so there needs to be a reduced field and big overlay in Vegas for that to be a success. 

I think the WPT World Championship overlays, but it will see bigger numbers than last year and it has so much goodwill towards it that it will be remembered as the biggest event outside the WSOP Main Event for the 2nd year in a row. 

What are your predictions for next month? Let us know in the comments: