Updated on 15 Sep 26 by
monuwwarah
Poker Expert

The Week in Prediction Markets: Viral Ads Involving LeBron James, Sydney Sweeney Dominate Discourse

Welcome to the prediction market weekly round-up here on PokerStrategy, where we'll run through the major weekly news in the industry. This week, viral ads starring NBA legend LeBron James and actor Sydney Sweeney dominated the discourse. Prediction market operators are ramping up their spend to acquire customers for football season.

Novig and Polymarket Open Their Wallets to Sign the Big Stars

James has recently appeared in several ads for DraftKings Sportsbook, in a series alongside actor and comedian Kevin Hart. He's now switched sides in the sportsbook vs. prediction market war, stumping for Polymarket:

Polymarket spared no expense for this one. Along with James, others with high Q ratings in the ad included Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Reggie Bush, and Spike Lee.

Polymarket is looking to close ground on rival Kalshi this football season. The operator's international crypto-based prediction market remains its flagship offering, while its U.S.-facing prediction market has not come anywhere close to securing a market-leading position. On the contrary, Kalshi dusted its rival by a factor of about 10 — approximately $38 billion in volume to $3.9 billion — according to public tracking site The Block.

Few names in sports have more reach than that of James. Perhaps he can help Polymarket build some sorely needed momentum.

Novig, meanwhile, occupies a different industry niche. Whereas Polymarket US offers contracts on crypto, weather, political events, and more, Novig is sports-only. And that's the gist of the ad, as Sweeney emphasizes:

Sweeney reportedly got a slice of equity in return for the spot.

Novig has completed a transition from a sweepstakes product to a prediction market. Even as long-term clouds loom over the industry, there should be plenty of short-term profit to be had with the arrival of NFL season. The first two games of the year already kicked off, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume.

The sportsbooks aren't sitting idly by. DraftKings has run some ads specifically attacking Kalshi's customer reviews, a rare acknowledgment of the brewing rivalry.

Additional Prediction Market News

Kalshi Files for 'En Banc' Rehearing

Kalshi took a big loss in court when three Ninth Circuit judges unanimously ruled against the prediction market, determining that Nevada can enforce state gambling laws and restrict sports contracts.

In response, Kalshi has requested an en banc hearing, meaning the entire panel of 11 judges presiding over the court would hear the case rather than just a selection of three. The fact the first decision was unanimous in favor of Nevada doesn't bode well for the result of a potential en banc hearing, but that could merely be the next step en route to a Supreme Court case.

Robinhood Follows Kalshi Out of Michigan

Michigan is another state has successfully secured a ruling against sports event contracts. A judge ruled that Michigan can bar Kalshi from offering sports contracts there as well, and it appears some other operators aren't waiting around for a similar ruling.

Robinhood, the finance app that has been among the higher-volume prediction market platforms, agreed to withdraw its sports event contracts from the state. It will cease offering new contracts immediately, and it will close out all customer positions by Oct. 9.

monuwwarah
Poker Expert