Hier mal der Ausschnitt zum Thema Multiway-Pots(ich hoffe, ich darf das hier so posten, wenn nicht, bitte Bescheid sagen):
Die Suits sind hier relativ unwichtig, drum editier ich sie mal nicht rein...
Overcards in a Multi-Way Pot.
Scenario 4. Button has A K . Big blind has T 9 . Limper has 6 5
Flop is 2 5 T . Big blind bets out and Limper calls. 8.5 small bets in the pot.
� Outcome 1. Ace or King on the Turn (6/43 * 10.5) = +1.465 small bets
� Outcome 2. No Ace or King (37/43 * -1) = -.861 small bets
Total EV: .604 small bets/hand profit
The button's best hope is that all overcard outs are clean. If they are, then calling earns a
considerable profit. This should be fairly obvious, since we showed a gain calling with 6 outs,
one challenger, and a smaller pot size. Next, we will examine the numbers if one limper holds a
kicker common to the button's overcards.
Scenario 5. Button has A K . Big blind has T 9 . Limper has A 5 .
Flop is 2 5 T . Big blind bets out and Limper calls. 8.5 small bets in the pot.
� Outcome 1. King on the Turn (3/43 * 10.5) = +.733 small bets
� Outcome 2. Ace on the Turn (2/43 * -5) = -.222 small bets
� Outcome 3. No Ace or King (38/43 * -1) = -.884 small bets
Total EV: .373 small bets/hand loss
The pot size is healthier with three opponents than only two, but having one overcard cut off
still represents a swing of one small bet and a significant loss. However, like the heads-up
examples in Part I, the real danger is when both of the button's outs are cut off. Scenario 6
analyzes the loss when the button needs two perfect cards.
Scenario 6. Button has A K . Big blind has K T . Limper has A 2 .
Flop is 2 5 T .
� Outcome 1. Running Ace/King (.0288 * 18.5) = +.5328 small bets
The button will only win if exactly an Ace and King falls OR exactly a Jack and Queen falls. One of these
combinations will transpire 2.88% of the time. To simplify, I will assume there are 4 extra big bets won if
the button gets lucky enough to win.
� Outcome 2. Ace or King on Turn, Blank on River (4/43 * 38/42 * -5) = -760/1806 = -.421 small bets
� Outcome 3. Jack or Queen on Turn, Blank on River (6/43 * 34/42 * -3) = -612/1806 = -.339 small bets
This scenario occurs because the button picks up an inside straight draw. When a complete blank falls,
the button spends one extra big bet.
� Outcome 4. Jack or Queen on Turn, Ace or King on River (6/43 * 4/42 * -5) = -120/1806 = -.067 small
bets
After a Jack or Queen, if an Ace or King falls, the button will likely call down on the river, sacrificing a
total of 2 big bets after the flop.
� Outcome 5. No Ace, King, Jack, or Queen on Turn (33/43 * -1) = -.767 small bets
Total EV: (.5328 - .421 - .339 -.067 -.767) = 1.06 small bets/hand loss
Four of the five possible outcomes are quite disastrous, and even the best outcome occurs only
2.88% of the time. A similar misfortune would transpire if either opponent held a very
powerful hand such as a set of 5s or 2s. Against a set, the button is drawing dead to a running
Queen/Jack.
But how often can the button expect to have all 6 outs, 3 outs, or nearly zero outs? If we
presume that our opposition called preflop with at least a reasonable hand, then the risk that
each player holds an Ace or King to go with their pair is very significant. For example, if we
assumed 22, 55, TT, AA, A2, A5, AT, K2s, K5s, KT, KK, QQ, JJ, T8, T9, JT, QT, 54s, 65s, 75s,
99, 88, 77, and 66 were all possible hands, then 25% (34 of the 136) of possible holdings
would counterfeit the button's AK. If we believed for whatever reason that our bettor or limper
could be holding overcards such as QJ, KQ, AQ, AJ, or weaker pairs such as 32s, 53s, T7s, 44,
or 33, then the percentage of feared hands goes down to 15.2% (34 of 223). The principal sense
is that each player who has called a bet increases the probability the button has 3 or fewer
outs.
How often is the button drawing dead or nearly dead? On a flop like the one in Scenario 6,
maybe not that often. Only a 22, 55, TT, and AA are likely dominating hands. There are only 15
combinations of these pocket pairs. Combining those deadly hands with the possibility both
the Ace and King are held by an opponent, the AK is drawing nearly dead 15-20% of the time.
It gets worse. A flop like {2 5 T } is abnormally non-threatening. On the other hand, a
dangerous flop such as T 9 8 is prone to generate a ruinous outcome such two pair, a set,
or a made straight.
Against a fairly non-threatening flop, we can estimate that the button has all 6 outs about 40%
of the time, only 3 outs 40% of the time, and virtually no outs 20% of the time:
Overall EV: (.604 * .4) - (.373 * .4) - (1.06 * .2) = .2416 - .1492 - .212 = 0.12 small bets/hand loss
If we measured a more dangerous flop, our numbers might look closer to the following:
Overall EV: (.604 * .2) - (.373 * .5) - (1.06 * .3) = .1208 - .1865 - .318 = 0.297 small bets/hand loss
The lesson here is that the bigger pot goes a long way towards adding profitability to a call with
overcards, but as the chance for a catastrophe increases (due to a dangerous flop or a high
number of players), the profit with overcards turns into a definite loss. For that reason, solid
play of overcards is so often associated with excellent or world class players. Remember, the
rewards earned by calling at the correct times with overcards are relatively marginal. The
losses faced when misplaying overcards can be huge. So, stick with a conservative approach.
Call with overcards only against one opponent (and not even then if the pot is small) unless
you have a very strong understanding of your opponent's play and their possible holdings.
