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33 middle set vs donk reg

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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

partypoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.28 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 112.95 BB (VPIP: 28.45, PFR: 21.31, 3Bet Preflop: 7.51, Hands: 8,795)
BB: 30.64 BB (VPIP: 20.02, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.78, Hands: 859)
UTG: 303.46 BB (VPIP: 22.74, PFR: 18.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.08, Hands: 8,701)
MP: 98.68 BB (VPIP: 22.40, PFR: 16.83, 3Bet Preflop: 8.02, Hands: 3,765)
Hero (CO): 210.24 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3♦ 3♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) 3♥ 2♣ 4♥
SB bets 3.56 BB, Hero calls 3.56 BB

Turn: (12.12 BB, 2 players) K♥
SB checks, Hero bets 3.84 BB, SB calls 3.84 BB

River: (19.8 BB, 2 players) J♣
SB checks, Hero checks

Spoiler

SB shows 4♠ 4♦ (Three of a Kind, Fours) (Pre 81%, Flop 94%, Turn 98%)
Hero mucks 3♦ 3♣ (Three of a Kind, Threes) (Pre 19%, Flop 6%, Turn 2%)
SB wins 18.81 BB

he is very good reg.

I see him donking first time vs me. I see it as polarised, so I just called to protect my call range, also I dont think I can raise and stack off vs his range, also when he donks I want to keep his Ax hands in play and let him bomb.

When he checks, he is cappt, he should almost never have K, and he should bet flushes, or at least c/r. Also it is strange, what could he cc on turn, which is not set, or straight?

Luckily I lost so little money vs better set :)


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5 replies
Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey GingerKid,

Preflop is fine.

Flop is ok, we could totally raise and go broke here.

Turn for value is fine, I think we can make it larger. He can have PP's with FD including some Ax hands even with A-high flush draw, so no need to let him draw so cheaply.

River is ok. We might have a thin value bet though, although J on river is not a great card for extracting value.


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GingerKid Topic starter
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Hi,

Do you really think that a very good reg (as he is) will donk Ahx and then c/c turn with his nut fd? He could but I think it is extremely unlikely. Or that he donks PP and then c/c with PP + fd? again I think it is totally unlikely that he donks PP, considering that he is good and that board is horrible for donking PP as I can call or raise with all Ax having a lot of equity. I would expect it from fish, but not from good reg.

When I look at his preflop and postflop stats, I cant find any leak, and if he has so good frequencies, I dont think he is playing silly in this spot.


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VytenisN
Joined: 03.06.2009

For me vs reg's SB range going broke on this flop looks suicidal.
Turn, would bet bigger. Value from Kx which bluffed the flop, value flop lower PPs.
River seems good, don't see many worse hands calling.


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Originally posted by GingerKid
Hi,

Do you really think that a very good reg (as he is) will donk Ahx and then c/c turn with his nut fd? .

Certainly not frequently but imo he can have PP's with hearts.

@VytenisN - why is it suicidal to go broke with 2nd set 112bb effective?


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VytenisN
Joined: 03.06.2009

Because preflop most reg's have narrow ranges for calling SB. It depends on the blinds, but I'd say 22-99/TT, AQ,KQ,AJ, maybe some AXs and SCs
And vs his stackoff range which is sets, straights and few combo draws we are not in a good shape imho.


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