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58s mega draw vs overbet

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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

partypoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 201.51 BB (VPIP: 24.38, PFR: 20.72, 3Bet Preflop: 11.53, Hands: 1,653)
SB: 41.94 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BB): 123.33 BB
UTG: 103.18 BB (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 29)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
CO: 69.69 BB (VPIP: 38.78, PFR: 34.69, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 50)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♦ 8♦

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.5 BB, 2 players) J♦ 7♣ 6♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 4.28 BB, Hero calls 4.28 BB

Turn: (13.06 BB, 2 players) 5♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 17 BB, Hero raises to 44 BB, BTN raises to 71 BB, Hero raises to 117.05 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 46.05 BB

River: (247.16 BB, 2 players) Q♣

Spoiler

BTN shows 9♦ 8♠ (Straight, Nine High) (Pre 69%, Flop 52%, Turn 78%)
Hero mucks 5♦ 8♦ (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 31%, Flop 48%, Turn 22%)
BTN wins 244.16 BB

Hand just few minutes ago, I was SB vs BB he called open raise, I check JQo on AQx, he checks K2s, turn J I check he overbets with gutshots, I call, and he gives up river.

So even though I hit mega draw, it makes sense that he will not bluff overbet this time, right? Still I did raise, because it is just my assumption that he will not overbet bluff, and i dont need much FE with this hand. Here it is strange to think about ranges, when I dont think he will bluff just after I saw him bluffing?


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7 replies
jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

I think it's probably just best to call the turn. This is similar to a hand posted recently on RIO, but you have a quite a bit more equity and are facing an overbet than in that hand.

So when he overbets, he narrows his range so much and you really only have a bluff catcher. Albeit with a tonne of equity. So I think calling the turn especially given you pared your 5 is best.


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GingerKid Topic starter
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

"So when he overbets, he narrows his range so much and you really only have a bluff catcher"

what is bluff catcher for you? if he bets 75% is it bluff catcher? it can outdraw all his strong hands so it is a draw with SD value and not "only" bluff catcher


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

When he overbets, he either has:

-the nuts, which beat you and you don't want to stack off against.
-air (or whatever shit draw he has), which you beat and don't want to raise, because it will just fold.

You have zero FE over hands that beat you.
So you still only have bluff catcher. But a pretty good one.


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

What better hands fold to your raise?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Raising turn wouldnt be so bad if u have no pair. When u pick up the pair i think its a complete waste to raise here for reasons already mentioned.

I do expect him to bluff ur outs a lot, and if he has a busted draw when all draws missed he should give up pretty often too.


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wealthybrainer
Joined: 01.05.2013

Wouldn't it be best to just x/r the flop?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Originally posted by wealthybrainer
Wouldn't it be best to just x/r the flop?

i think this is certainly a decent option as well. Hero's outs are mostly clean against all the made hands in villain's range, though one could argue that bloating up the pot with an 8 high draw isn't going to be a good idea since you lose more in flush vs flush situations, whereas you can just calldown if you hit your baby flush.


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