Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($52.80)
BB ($94.05)
UTG ($96)
Hero ($101)
BTN ($165)
Dealt to Hero 8♦ 8♥
fold, Hero raises to $3, fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2
FLOP ($9) 7♠ 2♦ 8♠
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7, BB calls $7
TURN ($30) 7♠ 2♦ 8♠ J♠
SB bets $42.80 (AI), BB folds, Hero ..
vs 57/21 14 hands guy
I need 37% equity.. I guess if he can have a 2-pair here like ever it's a call..?
HU i guess i call but vs. 2 i think his shove is way stronger.
Btw. against these kinda midstack and not fullstack players i bet pot on this flop.
Hi,
I'd most probably shove myself versus fish and hope to hit one of my ten outs, because i expect to be behind against straight or flush quite often.
As Jspade is one of the worst cards in the deck and to save some variance a fold could be considered, too.
Let's see what the judges think.
Best regards,
Anin
Hi,
If you wonder how i came to the following ranges: I gave him a 45% range and from there i excluded all air hands and AKs/AQs (I think even he would 3bet them).
I also excluded all sets.
What's left are some FDs, so i added all top-2pairs and bottom-2pairs, I assume the 37% you calculated are right:
Board: Js 8s 2d 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.696% 62.70% 00.00% 800 0.00 { AsTs, As9s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Js9s, J8s, Js6s, Ts9s, Ts6s, 9s6s, 87s, J8o, 87o }
Hand 1: 37.304% 37.30% 00.00% 476 0.00 { 8d8h }
So even if he does this with basically all possible 2pairs it's still a very close call.
Because of that I think it's actually an easy fold.
couldnt halfstack fish have smth like TT :spade:, 99 :spade:, 56 ? And why u excluded air and 22 at all?
I mean how it could be and easy fold when even vs just_value_range we have close call?
I excluded air because i don't think he ever calls with total air on a 3way flop.
22 and 77 because people check/raise sets on the flop most of the time, especially on a drawy board like this.
The "easy call" might be an exaggeration, but not that much.
If you have a very thin breakeven-call in the best-case scenario - you can easily fold because the fold also has 0EV, so call and fold are the same.
But since you were already in the best-case-scenario for calling you risk making a -EV play with a chance of winning nothing because the call is breakeven at best.
You do this while you could make a simple fold which guarantees you that you make a breakeven-play.
