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Nl100 Aa

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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($187)
BB ($238)
UTG ($84.09)
UTG+1 ($115)
Hero ($122)
BTN ($43)

Dealt to Hero A♦ A♣

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

FLOP ($12) K♠ 9♣ 9♦

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, SB folds, BB calls $10, UTG+1 folds

TURN ($32) K♠ 9♣ 9♦ 3♠

BB checks, Hero bets $23, BB raises to $46, Hero folds

BB wins $75

(played on a turbo table if that would have any influence on our decision-making)

villain:
59/9/3/18 - 200 hands
notes:
- CC AKo bvb - call call, bet 1/2 pot TPTK (A83ss QO 8o)
- l/c KK - cal set AKxdd, bet/shove 1/2 pot blank turn

Given he played his TPTK passive at an earlier point (IP) turn is a fold, expecting him to have the 9 here a lot of the times?


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13 replies

easy fold imo, if he had low wtsd i'd consider checking the turn.


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Yeah, +1 Z1pz0r just sigh fold the turn and bemoan your luck at the computer "why can't he have KJ and give me three streets!


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axelphoney Topic starter
axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

check the turn ?(

My default assumption is always that a fish can never let go of a toppair, so by checking back the turn I will miss tons of value from his kings. He does indeed have a low WTS, but still would you expect a fish like that to give up a king until the river anyway?


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

+1 was for folding the turn. There is unquestionably value on the turn in my opinion.


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I was saying I would check turn when he had very low wtsd. When he's playing 59 vpip wtsd that would be considered normal at regs (like 25) is actually on higher side at this kind of fish because of his wide range preflop. Even with 20 wtsd you can probably go for 3 barrels.

If fish is capable of slowplaying, has very low wtsd (can fold top pair here because after all, the flop was 4-way so 9x is quite likely) then I would just check turn.


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getdotacom
Joined: 06.04.2008

Actually I like checking flop here. It sounds sick, but we can get more value if fish hits something on turn or someone else decides to bluff. Just call all other streets. We don't need to protect our hand from almost anything on flop, don't expect get 3streets anyways, unless fish has exactly K


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Fish will pay with all gutshots on the flop where I think we miss out on value from when we check, and of course the times he has Kx.


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I agree with betting the flop.
We do need to protect because we're up vs 3 ranges.

But I'd make it smaller, imo a GS has a hard time calling a $10 bet, $7-$8 is better I think.

On the turn I'm also definitely betting for value, I think the 2/3 bet is quite fine.
After he checkraiseshe always has 9x - easy b/f.


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axelphoney Topic starter
axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Isn't it better to target all Kx by making a large bet on the flop so that we can get the maximum amount of money in by the river?


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Originally posted by Bierbaer
I agree with betting the flop.
We do need to protect because we're up vs 3 ranges.

But I'd make it smaller, imo a GS has a hard time calling a $10 bet, $7-$8 is better I think.

On the turn I'm also definitely betting for value, I think the 2/3 bet is quite fine.
After he checkraiseshe always has 9x - easy b/f.

Do we think fish will fold for $10 if they call $8?

Agree with the rest.


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by pleno1

Originally posted by Bierbaer
I agree with betting the flop.
We do need to protect because we're up vs 3 ranges.

But I'd make it smaller, imo a GS has a hard time calling a $10 bet, $7-$8 is better I think.

On the turn I'm also definitely betting for value, I think the 2/3 bet is quite fine.
After he checkraiseshe always has 9x - easy b/f.

Do we think fish will fold for $10 if they call $8?

Agree with the rest.

It's hard to say, I think so; 8 is a 2/3 bet, 10 is a 4/5.


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

I disagree, I think fish will call $10 almost always if they're going to call $8. It may seem only a little hting, but add an extra couple bb/100 to your win rate and it can change you from a break even to a winning player.


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Well yea, but if they fold very weak hands maybe it costs you 2 bb in the long run ;).

The point is: there is no definite answer. Fish are not all alike and there are even differences between rooms. We could actually both be right here (and no I'm not saying this just to have the last word ).


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