NL100 KQs Speed

Should of donk shoved the river yourself.

Hi Fidel,

pre flop the call looks fine, even better against aggro.

Flop and turn look fine.

River I'd definitely call, we are close to the top of our range (what better hands do we have?) and villain seems splashy enough. Yes, 9T got there, but villain could be shoving hands like QT, FDs, AT, AQ... Bottom of our range for calling river? We probably should be calling some AJ, without hearts, with a spade also helps.

Did you notice that his cbet turn is very low? It is small sample but still it is info.
Imo regs dont bluff often enough on river vs MP on Kxx so imo river call would be at best marginal call.

Yeah, I saw the sizing, i don't think it's low at all for a 3bet pot.

Originally posted by double2
Yeah, I saw the sizing, i don't think it's low at all for a 3bet pot.

Sorry, I meant cbet turn % (statistic) not the bet size

Well we do have 12 AK combos i would imagine - or are you 4b/calling in these psoitions?
we have 3 JJ - 1 AQss - 1 KQss and maybe 1 T9ss

so depending on our turn callingrange we are actually not that far up in our range
-> what are your flop and turn c/c ranges?

I didn't look at his stats, so just assuming he's playing solid.

as a default I'd 4b AK (and raise JJ's earlier) so on the river I'd have something like

A:h:Q:h, A:sQ:s 2
AJs 3
K:sQ:s
KQs 2
Q:hJ:h 1

I'd expect him to have something like

KK+, AK, QTs, and some suited aces and a little suited trash.

Given that we're outnutted I think leading is not going to end well with any part of our range.

So we check, villain bets his nut flushes, his QTs and sometimes his AK, KK+ (K:s pretty good to have and also A:h, A:s ) and maybe a few busted heart draws.

Given pot odds, call ~40%.
So A:s:Q:s, K:sQ:s ez call
So that's 2 of 9 we need to call ~1.5 more
QJ doesn't help at all so fold

AJs and KQs both the same, apart from A:hJ:h we should probably fold that coz he might bluff with busted flush draws
So of the remaining call 1.5/4 or ~35% so whatever, zero EV call or fold, but you gotta do it sometimes...

If you have AK, then you can just call all the AK with a spade and that would probably be pretty close.

and if u get to the river with JJ's I think you're losing some EV by playing a little passively

I think Jules evaluation is pretty much spot on.

Originally posted by GingerKid

Originally posted by double2
Yeah, I saw the sizing, i don't think it's low at all for a 3bet pot.

Sorry, I meant cbet turn % (statistic) not the bet size

Well, that i didn't see because on 265 hands sample looking at cbet turn it's not useful. You realize that number is no for 3bet pots right? It's just cbet turn overall, in my eyes that does not justify a fold turn or river.

Originally posted by bulldozzer7
Well we do have 12 AK combos i would imagine - or are you 4b/calling in these psoitions?
we have 3 JJ - 1 AQss - 1 KQss and maybe 1 T9ss

so depending on our turn callingrange we are actually not that far up in our range
-> what are your flop and turn c/c ranges?

I think AK is a clear 4bet/stack off against this player, he clearly seems to have a wide 3bet range, certaintely bigger than 6% in this spot.

well then its obv a call - i did not look at the stats

not sure about raising JJ earlier in the hand though - where would you want to raise and how do you balance out?

I'd raise the flop.

I was thinking a couple of combos of either some JTs or A:hQo for bluffs. AQo looks a little better, coz it blocks AK & AA. And with the A:h it won't have to raise/fold against weak suited Ace flush draws (like A:h2:h, A:h3:h, A:h7:h or whatever) which would really suck. The A:h also gives it a tiny bit more equity against his felting range.
J's are probably not too common in his betting range. Wouldn't expect to see too much JJ, or KJo.

Why do you think that raising flop w JJ has a higher ev than c/calling down?
same question for the draws

Originally posted by bulldozzer7
Why do you think that raising flop w JJ has a higher ev than c/calling down?
same question for the draws

re JJ

That's a good question. I don't know the answer, maybe c/calling down is better? MP will certainly be smashed on the flop in equity and equity distribution. If raising is good (which I still think), probably a mixed strategy is the best anyways...

Pros for Raising
-Gets value which it won't get later on many runouts
-Fold's out equity of bet flop/checkdown-fold hands that can outdraw
-Allows hero to defend a smaller range
-incentives villain to cbet less, strengthening our chances of realizing equity with the rest of our range

Cons for Raising
-Stack depth is not great for it
-Equity and equity distribution is really bad
-therefore we are gutting our already weak x/c range
-incentives villain to cbet more, lessening our chances of realizing equity with the rest of our range.
- forces hero to defend a wider range

I let jbpatzer know of this thread. With a bit of luck, he'll run his magic GTO program on it and let us know...

that sounds great ♦

I hear all your arguments and I eypecially think its nice to always have at least some small raising range for reasons you mentioned
however i think in this spot the fact that we need hands to call down with weighs stronger

i like check-jamming the turn w JJ mostly

KX+ are never folding
You protect against draws
I don't think villain overbluffs on a non spade/heart river
On a spade/heart river, he gets to value bet and bluff pretty effectively against you
im inclined to think that JJ loses a lot of value, dont' think protecting the weaker bluff catchers is particularly important on this wet board

what else would you c/jam on the turn?

some spade combo draws like Ts9s