Nl200 Aq [updated]

Hey VytenisN,

Preflop defend is fine vs 15% range here.

Assuming this is just the x/f stat (and not the fold after checking stat) then villain must be x/f an absolute ton on the flop after he checks as the preflop aggressor. Betting flop should be good.

Postflop is ok trying to play for showdown but if I'm understanding which stats you are given me we've let villain freeroll a ton of equity and missed out on some auto-profit.

It's 'fold after skipping cbet in 3bet pot' stat and it doesn't look that high.
Detailed stats after skipping cbet: x/F 39; x/c 61,;x/R 0

If villian would construct range on flop in such a way that he folds 40% once he checks (as you have the stat), would it be ok to bet 25% Pot size to make impossible for him to defend enough? His range consists of air which he cant defend even vs small bet, so I think 25% pot size is +EV. If he 3bets linear range, then he has here plenty of Jx that c/c, some 2nd pairs as well, JJ, but he should still have fold range and imo AQ blocks AJ, QJs, AA, QQ so you should have enough FE with bet.

the counter to your strategy of betting 25% pot with your whole range is to start checkraising as the 3bettor

Originally posted by mbml
the counter to your strategy of betting 25% pot with your whole range is to start checkraising as the 3bettor

So, are you betting 50%of pot the flop for protection?
Unanswered question: Whats the worst hand we could call his bet with ? Seems like value range could be 7x +

Originally posted by mbml
the counter to your strategy of betting 25% pot with your whole range is to start checkraising as the 3bettor

Sure. If we start exploiting someone especially extremely (100% as you suggested) then we are allways open for exploits. I didnt mean to bet 100% range.I would bet that way value hands and hands that need more protection like lower pairs, some backdoor stuff. I would check Ax hands without backdoors, and Jx that dont need protection and are not strong enough to 3 barrel. So using small bet size on flop, and increasing it on later streets still makes it possible to have balanced ranges, and difference is that when betting small all bluffs are nice +EV, and when betting bigger it helps villian to defend enough and makes our bluffs smaller EV.

Exploitatevely, I think it would actually make sense to be bluff heavy with such 25% bet size on flop, until we see that villian actually adapted with c/r range as you suggested, and thats how I play as default.

Originally posted by VytenisN

Originally posted by mbml
the counter to your strategy of betting 25% pot with your whole range is to start checkraising as the 3bettor

So, are you betting 50%of pot the flop for protection?
Unanswered question: Whats the worst hand we could call his bet with ? Seems like value range could be 7x +

Imo it is better to check, no need to protect AQ, because he has many combos that are drawing dead vs your hand. It is imo better to bet hand like 77-TT for protection.
On river, you can call AQ, because 1) it is probably top of your range 2) you beat the bluffs, and you block JQ which might check twice. Blocking effect is not great, but you beat bluffs. I dont think he value bets 6x, 7x, becuase your perceived range might still have 88-TT, some weak Jx.

weird bet sizes are best used sparingly, so no one really remembers that it's a part of your repertoire.

for example there was a period of time about 1-2 months ago where I started overbetting way too much and I probably got at least 5 regulars starting to slowplay sets and overpairs regularly in position on me.

I agree with GK that we should check AQ and bet lower pairs

Not only because lower pairs need protection, but they are just simply much stronger here (do expect villain to cc Flop with AK/AQ a lot, maybe A4/A2)

River: I like your fold here cos this guy is probably rarely bluffing but vs tough opposition you might need to call AQ

Originally posted by mbml
weird bet sizes are best used sparingly, so no one really remembers that it's a part of your repertoire.

for example there was a period of time about 1-2 months ago where I started overbetting way too much and I probably got at least 5 regulars starting to slowplay sets and overpairs regularly in position on me.

I guess it is great for you when you see reg slowplaying sets on draw heavy board because it means your bluff EV grows or he has to defend much wider. So then you started being balanced with overbets and they still sloplayed sets? Imo it is great exploitative play to be in beginning bluff heavy and later balanced when they adapt.