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NL200 options for monster draw?

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Mantelo
Joined: 12.05.2009

SB aggressive monkey 51/25/8,8 1k hands, BB breakeven Reg, UTG limper fish 59/15. SB donks 19% & doesn't take ch/raise line with strong hands. BB donk stat 10%. Can I call this flop? He shouldn't have any air hands due to fish is still to act behind him, so basically his range is value heavy here. But I do have double gutter + backdoor NutFlushdraw. And what options on the Turn? Many outs but are they sufficient? I probably should put him on more draws to make my push profitable here, but the only possible draw is KJ I think. So is my raise too optimistic here? I still can't figure which line is best on Turn; call/fold/jam :f_confused:

No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $206.40 (103.2 bb)
UTG: $654.10 (327.1 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $315.10 (157.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $193.15 (96.6 bb)
SB: $218.65 (109.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A J
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $7, BB calls $6, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($32) 8 Q T (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $24, UTG folds, Hero calls $24, SB folds

Turn: ($80) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $50, Hero raises to $161.15 and is all-in, BB calls $111.15

River: ($402.30) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$402.30 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: 8 Q T 7 2
BB showed Q T and lost (-$193.15 net)
Hero showed A J and won $399.30 ($206.15 net)


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2 replies
axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

I think the turnjam looks a bit spewy. His range here is always QTs+ at a minimum, he has absolutely zero bluffs, donking into 3 players otf so I would just call ott. Not rly sure about flopcall tho, not sure if we even can consider 9x an out all that often, so might even just be a fold


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

Flop is close. I would fold if 2nd to act. I guess having A:h certainly helps as u can continue on hearts and also turn your hand into a bluff wih your blocker.

I really dont like the turn jam for reasons mentioned before - he is really strong here and i dont think u have too much FE. Sets are probably nv folding and twopairs may/may not fold.

Just call and bluff R if checked to. Jamming only makes sense vs an air heavy turn barreling range which would often fire blank rivers, or if u think u can fold out some non flush made hands.


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