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NL25SH AA 4b pot fold?

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caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 102.72 BB
Hero (BTN): 113.48 BB
SB: 132.24 BB
BB: 101 BB
UTG: 129.8 BB
MP: 105.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ A♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, fold, Hero raises to 16.8 BB, SB calls 9.8 BB

Flop: (34.6 BB, 2 players) J♣ 6♥ 2♠
SB checks, Hero bets 16 BB, SB calls 16 BB

Turn: (66.6 BB, 2 players) Q♦
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (66.6 BB, 2 players) J♦
SB bets 99.44 BB and is all-in, fold

Spoiler

SB wins 63.6 BB
Rake paid 3 BB

Guy seemed like a regular, 3betted a little bit on the higher side...

He insta jammed river, am I going crazy or can I actually fold this? I mean, I expect him to call QQ more often than KK pre. I would guess his probable range for shoving river is AA, QQ, JJ, AJ... But I don't know.

I know it's a 4b pot, I've got an overcard and all that, but I don't think one should always play by the book, and I think this might be a situation in which we shouldn't play by the book.

I just can't see him floating OOP with a bluff, and I think his value range for shoving river crushes me.


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7 replies
2reac
Joined: 10.04.2014

Next time maybe you won`t check back T. He might play like this with AK. I would call. He`s only repping AJs 1 combo and maybe JJ 1 combo. I doubt he would just call QQ in this spot, cause you`re not that deep.


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caltabiano Topic starter
caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

Thing is I think he's more likely to jam AK pre. I think we could consider very few combos of AK because of that. I actually think he's more likely to call QQ than AK preflop.

Besides, why jam AK? Except to make me fold AA, hahaha :f_biggrin:

I don't bet turn because I really think there's more value to be had by checking back and jamming river, since he might be more inclined to bluff catch.

AND I think he could have more AJ, I can see people flatting AJo pre as well.


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caltabiano Topic starter
caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

And he insta-jammed, that's worth consideration as well


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2reac
Joined: 10.04.2014

Originally posted by caltabiano
Besides, why jam AK? Except to make me fold AA, hahaha :f_biggrin:
.

HAHAHA! Guess what, you`ve folded AA!


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2reac
Joined: 10.04.2014

I don`t get it. Why is it more likely to call QQ than AK? QQ does better than AK against your calling range vs ship ( JJ+AK).

Why jam AK OTR? Maybe fold AK from a split?


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caltabiano Topic starter
caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

Originally posted by 2reac
I don`t get it. Why is it more likely to call QQ than AK? QQ does better than AK against your calling range vs ship ( JJ+AK).

Why jam AK OTR? Maybe fold AK from a split?

Because people are afraid of calling AK and not hitting and then when they do hit they don't get paid off by TT - QQ and only valuetown themselves against KK and AA.

Yeah, jam AK on the river would save from a split but would lose its bluff catching value, so I don't know. But again, the way I played, he could very much think I had AK.

I've got 28% equity versus JJ-QQ, AKs and AJs.
If I give him only one combo of QQ I'm 40% and if I give him 2 combos of QQ I'm 33%.
I need 35% to make the call.

Argh, it's really close... he only instajams AK if he had already decided 100% to do it when if I checked back turn, otherwise he had JJ :f_biggrin:

I guess in the end it's somewhat a close decision.

But reviewing this hand makes me think about when I'm in villain's shoes, maybe I should be jamming AK more often to get people off AK, haha


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

You can have 16 combos of AK

AJ KJ - pretty hard for his opponent to fold JX

If SB always folded JX here, then this becomes a super great spot for BTN to bluff shove here with any two.

The River fold seems weak but could be ok vs the right guys. The snap timing definitely helps you to make a tight fold, as well as your larger flop bet size. Opponent will have fewer floats.

Some guys will turn 99/88/AK/ATs and turn these hands into bluffs on the River. But others will never do that.

Tough spot, I would call but not easy


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