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[Closed] Advanced Preflop: Statistical Question

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I am currently analysing hand equities with pokerstove and I ran into a question.

I found that I have difficulty analysing the percentual variance of an opponents PFR relative to his position.

Reading through the Fortgeschrittenen Pre-Flop 3.0, Korn gives this example:

1) Problem: Ein Gegner mit einem PFR von 10% raist im MP1. Ihr seid im MP2. Mit welchen H�nden solltet ihr 3-betten, mit welchen H�nden callen, mit welchen folden?

L�sung: Wir sch�tzen, dass ein Gegner mit einem PFR von 10% im MP1 ca. 8% seiner H�nde raist. Das ergibt laut Pokerstove folgende Range: 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

Which translates roughly as:

1) Problem: An opponent with a PFR 10% raises from MP1, You are sitting in MP2. With which hands should you 3-bet, with which should you call and with which should you fold

Solution: We estimate that an opponent with PFR 10% in MP1 raises around 8% of his hands. That yields the following handranges according to Pokerstove: 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

While I can understand the estimation and would agree with it, I find it hard to analyse this variance in different positions. Which percentage of his hands would this opponent raise in UTG+1 ? Which percentage would he raise on the Button? Does anybody have a calculation or good rule of thumb to adapt PFR percentages based on an opponents position?

I also found another quote on the Pokerstove article:
"Korn estimates the following for shorthanded:

quote:
MP2 ~ 0.75 * PFR
MP3 ~ PFR
CO ~ 1.5 * PFR
BU ~ 2 * PFR"

I also thought that MP3 = average PFR however I don't think the other suggestions translate well to fullring.

Anybody have an answer or suggestion for me?


7 replies
Korn
Joined: 14.01.2005

Hi Anakha:

do the following: take the open raising chart from the advanced pre-flop section. Calculate how many % of hands a player playing according to the open raising chart raises from each position.

Out of experience I can tell you that a player playing according to the open raising strategy has a PFR of 9-10 at a full ring table.

With that knowledge, you can determine the answer to your question.


I already did that actually :). (and the SHC range, and the charts from Small stakes Hold'em, but I'm really bad at math so I'm having difficulties putting the variances together)

Unless I made an error these are the percentages from the Big Green Brute:

UTG 6%
UTG1 6%
UTG2 8.6%
MP1 10.6%
MP2 13.1%
MP3 17.2%
CO 24.6%
BU 37.7%
SB 61.4%

If you say that the that an ORC player has a PFR around 9-10%, which, according to the percentages per position average between UTG2 and MP1, then why does the example (of an PFR 10% player) estimates his raise range on mp1 as 8%. I understand that the example isn't necessarily of an ORC player but we are dealing with the same PFR.
Unless you are compensating for the huge increase in raising percentage for a late game ORC player, which might not be so large in a regular player. But then again, were do you base your reduction on?

Or did I make a mistake in either the translation or the math? I'll admit I have practically no education in either :).


Hmm.... I scrapped this post, I made some averages and though they were safer in later positions they also became more vulnerable to an ORC raising from early position. Going to think about this a bit.

I did manage to get the variances per position from the ORC, just wondering whether it's best to apply these directly to a persons PFR or wheter it's better to average them out to the general opponent.


Alright, did some testing with different variances, the ORC's seems to work out just fine and it's easy to adjust on the spot as well.

Made a chart to keep next to the computer and help with the estimations. :)

Thanks Korn!


zaephyr
Joined: 03.05.2006

I know its offtopic, but can someone paste ORC or link to it? I cant find it :<.

thx


Heh, not completely off topic :).
It's only on the german forums, you can find the article by browsing to here:

Fixed-Limit Basis-Wissen � Fortgeschrittene � [Strategie] Pre-Flop: Starting Hands - Expert Theory 3.0

and the link to the chart itself:
http://www.pokerstrategy.org.uk/download/orc30.pdf


Korn
Joined: 14.01.2005

Originally posted by zaephyr
I know its offtopic, but can someone paste ORC or link to it? I cant find it :<.

thx

See here: http://www.pokerstrategy.org.uk/en/strategy/50/