So much for variance!

ok too much math for me.. im out of here ♦

Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
Thats actually a nice example of variance.

It depends on what perspective you view it from. I see it as being dealt trash 8 times in a row. This is a very common occurance.

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
Thats actually a nice example of variance.

It depends on what perspective you view it from. I see it as being dealt trash 8 times in a row. This is a very common occurance.

♠_biggrin:

There is a very old joke to explain variance and odds in a very simple way. It is supposed to be about the difference between mens and womens way of thinking, but works for this just as well.

The same question is being asked to a man and a woman:

"What are the odds of you meeting a live dinosaur on the street today?"

Man doesnt look very sure: "Well... it's not really possible, but I guess you could say that odds are something like 1/100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000"

Woman is very sure: "The odds are 50/50"

How's that?

Woman: "Well... it's rather simple - either I will meet him or I won't"

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
Thats actually a nice example of variance.

It depends on what perspective you view it from. I see it as being dealt trash 8 times in a row. This is a very common occurance.

It's mathematically incorrect, because we need a definition of "being dealt trash 8 times in a row", and obviously there are lots of "trash hands" than J5o

Originally posted by SilverSag
There is a very old joke to explain variance and odds in a very simple way. It is supposed to be about the difference between mens and womens way of thinking, but works for this just as well.

The same question is being asked to a man and a woman:

"What are the odds of you meeting a live dinosaur on the street today?"

Man doesnt look very sure: "Well... it's not really possible, but I guess you could say that odds are something like 1/100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000"

Woman is very sure: "The odds are 50/50"

How's that?

Woman: "Well... it's rather simple - either I will meet him or I won't"

love it ha

Lame thread if you ask me.. first off i don't believe he had those two cards AND those two exact suits 8 times in a row. Maybe the cards but not the suits.

Second.. it doesn't matter at all. Weather you get 27, 24, T3, J4, 39, 38, T2, 82 or 8 times J5 its all pretty much the same. It's all trash you don't want to play. Now getting royal flush two hands in a row that'd be a nicer example imo.

lol @ fake stories.

You have Hand History at Requests/Check my Promotions(internet)/ Hand History .

Originally posted by Bliausmas

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
Thats actually a nice example of variance.

It depends on what perspective you view it from. I see it as being dealt trash 8 times in a row. This is a very common occurance.

It's mathematically incorrect, because we need a definition of "being dealt trash 8 times in a row", and obviously there are lots of "trash hands" than J5o

Well I see 'being dealt Jack Five offsuit' as an outcome in the event 'being dealt trash'. Therefore if this outcome occurs 8 times in a row, which is itself unlikely, then the event has occured 8 times in a row. However, it would depend on an individuals own idea of how many seperate outcomes make up the event 'being dealt trash' to determine how often, and how likely it is that, the event 'being dealt trash 8 times in a row' occurs.

i find those card very playeble imo:) i dont even understand why u call them trash;) i luv to crash bullets, with T3 ♦ i love this topic:D lol

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by Bliausmas

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
Thats actually a nice example of variance.

It depends on what perspective you view it from. I see it as being dealt trash 8 times in a row. This is a very common occurance.

It's mathematically incorrect, because we need a definition of "being dealt trash 8 times in a row", and obviously there are lots of "trash hands" than J5o

Well I see 'being dealt Jack Five offsuit' as an outcome in the event 'being dealt trash'. Therefore if this outcome occurs 8 times in a row, which is itself unlikely, then the event has occured 8 times in a row. However, it would depend on an individuals own idea of how many seperate outcomes make up the event 'being dealt trash' to determine how often, and how likely it is that, the event 'being dealt trash 8 times in a row' occurs.

So you want to say that possibilities of being dealt J5o 8 times in a row, and being dealt any trash hand 8 times in a row, are equal?

Originally posted by Bliausmas

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by Bliausmas

Originally posted by MikeyH

It depends on what perspective you view it from. I see it as being dealt trash 8 times in a row. This is a very common occurance.

It's mathematically incorrect, because we need a definition of "being dealt trash 8 times in a row", and obviously there are lots of "trash hands" than J5o

Well I see 'being dealt Jack Five offsuit' as an outcome in the event 'being dealt trash'. Therefore if this outcome occurs 8 times in a row, which is itself unlikely, then the event has occured 8 times in a row. However, it would depend on an individuals own idea of how many seperate outcomes make up the event 'being dealt trash' to determine how often, and how likely it is that, the event 'being dealt trash 8 times in a row' occurs.

So you want to say that possibilities of being dealt J5o 8 times in a row, and being dealt any trash hand 8 times in a row, are equal?

No, I don't want to say that at all. I think you have misunderstood what I was originally trying to point out.

My orginal point was that when I'm playing I don't even recognise the difference between having been dealt jack five offsuit 8 times in a row, or any random combination of 8 trash hands in a row. I don't see each event as being significantly different as it relates to what I want to do with the hand. Therefore I see both events as being dealt trash 8 times in a row.

Now i see what do you mean. We could say the same about coin flipping to make things more simple. The idea is that possibility of flipping heads 100 times in a row is equal to possibility of flipping exact random sequence of 100 flips made of heads and tails, right? But the thing is that those possibilities matters only before the event happens. I mean we could take a sample of 100 already dealt hands and say that the possibility of all these hands being dealt this exact way was 1/gazillion^gazillion, but that would be just ridiculous. The trick is that all these incredibly small possibilities adds up to 1 - in other words, something shall happen anyways.
I must agree with your statement, as it is completely technically correct, but that's just a wrong point of view in my opinion. Lets take an example - you walk down the street and a bird drops its "bomb" on you. The possibility of that happening is very small, but according to your statement - the "bomb" must drop somewhere eventually, so nothing special. And if it repeats for like 5 times in the same day - wouldn't you feel that this day is unlucky?

Not quite what I mean Bliausmas. The reason I consider jack five offsuit and any random trash hand the same is because I'm going to do the same thing with it every time*, fold. If you were to look at it in a coin flipping situation where there were stakes invloved, it would be like saying winning 100 times in a row and then losing 100 times in a row is the same as if I won every second flip and then lost every other flip. I still come out break even at the end of the day, which is what I see as the important point.

The bird situation is different, because it results in two different outcomes at the end: having shit on you, and not having shit on you.

While all trash hands have differing specific expected values, they all (in the average situation) share the same property that the expected value is negative. Therefore they all recieve the same end outcome, the muck.

*Well, not all of the time.

I understand what do you mean, you just don't care about the possibilities if you're not playing those hands anyway, right? Just like watching a lotto on TV not having a ticket and seeing todays lucky numbers as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - well that looks cool but it should matter only for someone who just won a jackpot with these numbers. The same with this J5o thing - it just looks cool when the same hand is dealt n times in a row, but nothing special about it. My point is that it doesn't matter which hand you'll get dealt 8 times in a row, trash or AA, but the fact that you were holding the two very same cards in your pocket for 8 hands - that's cool. I know, those possibilities really means something only when it gives you profit (like winning that jackpot in a lottery), but that's my mathematical point of view

Actually guys the probability of getting the same card 8 times in a row or 1000 times in a row is exactly the same as getting them once.
Every time cards are being dealt its a new occurrence and as such not influenced by cards being dealt in previous hand.
Just for arguments sake...

Originally posted by milanandonov
Actually guys the probability of getting the same card 8 times in a row or 1000 times in a row is exactly the same as getting them once.
Every time cards are being dealt its a new occurrence and as such not influenced by cards being dealt in previous hand.
Just for arguments sake...

Yeah, I believe you're a genius but you wrote pure nonsense (if you're not trolling of course :P).

Originally posted by Bliausmas

My point is that it doesn't matter which hand you'll get dealt 8 times in a row, trash or AA, but the fact that you were holding the two very same cards in your pocket for 8 hands - that's cool.

The novelty wears off eventually for most hands. It's always good to see unlikely streaks of monsters though. If you were raising pocket aces for the 8th time in a row a lot of people would tend to think that you were getting a bit out of line and give you some action.

However, being dealt strong hands in which you would raise several times in a row is a far different situation in which you get dealt weak hands and fold several times in a row. Folding 8 times in a row, for me, is not that uncommon. Such actions as a result of being dealt jack five offsuit 8 times in a row or any other trash 8 times in a row should not affect my opponents actions significantly. Therefore my general strategy or expected value should not change either. It is a different case for strong hands. My actions would change drastically from what my opponents would expect if I were to be dealt pocket aces 8 times in a row. I expect that they would tend to think that I am getting a bit over confident and trying to bully the table. This would be a far more likely scenario in their minds than a rare streak of pocket aces 8 times in a row. Their actions would likely change and they would make moves with more marginal hands expecting them to have a positive expected value against me. Therefore for such streaks of good cards we should expect that the action we recieve for the nth raise in a row will rise with some relation to n.

Based on such an idea it is more relevant to the game to get a streak of monsters than to get a streak of trash. We could expect a higher profit over a session in which we get a streak of monsters over several hands than we would get if we were to be dealt the exact same cards distributed more evenly in another session.

I have started a new thread if anyone wishes to discuss this specific example.

The relevance of variance

Originally posted by milanandonov
Actually guys the probability of getting the same card 8 times in a row or 1000 times in a row is exactly the same as getting them once.
Every time cards are being dealt its a new occurrence and as such not influenced by cards being dealt in previous hand.
Just for arguments sake...

This is incorrect. The probability of an event A followed by an event B is P(A) * P(B). (Probability of A multiplied by the probability of B).
e.g. The probability of rolling a six on two seperate dice rolls is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. If we had already rolled the first six, then the probability of rolling a second is then just 1/6.

Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by Bliausmas

My point is that it doesn't matter which hand you'll get dealt 8 times in a row, trash or AA, but the fact that you were holding the two very same cards in your pocket for 8 hands - that's cool.

The novelty wears off eventually for most hands. It's always good to see unlikely streaks of monsters though. If you were raising pocket aces for the 8th time in a row a lot of people would tend to think that you were getting a bit out of line and give you some action.

However, being dealt strong hands in which you would raise several times in a row is a far different situation in which you get dealt weak hands and fold several times in a row. Folding 8 times in a row, for me, is not that uncommon. Such actions as a result of being dealt jack five offsuit 8 times in a row or any other trash 8 times in a row should not affect my opponents actions significantly. Therefore my general strategy or expected value should not change either. It is a different case for strong hands. My actions would change drastically from what my opponents would expect if I were to be dealt pocket aces 8 times in a row. I expect that they would tend to think that I am getting a bit over confident and trying to bully the table. This would be a far more likely scenario in their minds than a rare streak of pocket aces 8 times in a row. Their actions would likely change and they would make moves with more marginal hands expecting them to have a positive expected value against me. Therefore for such streaks of good cards we should expect that the action we recieve for the nth raise in a row will rise with some relation to n.

Based on such an idea it is more relevant to the game to get a streak of monsters than to get a streak of trash. We could expect a higher profit over a session in which we get a streak of monsters over several hands than we would get if we were to be dealt the exact same cards distributed more evenly in another session.

I have started a new thread if anyone wishes to discuss this specific example.

The relevance of variance

Originally posted by milanandonov
Actually guys the probability of getting the same card 8 times in a row or 1000 times in a row is exactly the same as getting them once.
Every time cards are being dealt its a new occurrence and as such not influenced by cards being dealt in previous hand.
Just for arguments sake...

This is incorrect. The probability of an event A followed by an event B is P(A) * P(B). (Probability of A multiplied by the probability of B).
e.g. The probability of rolling a six on two seperate dice rolls is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. If we had already rolled the first six, then the probability of rolling a second is then just 1/6.

I think you should read Laplace theorem of probabilities (Théorie analytique des probabilités)

But never mind here is something much more weird than this.

Israel lottery draws same numbers as three weeks before!!!

"By Mark Weiss in Jerusalem 12:59PM BST 18 Oct 2010

Three lucky punters, who also correctly guessed the 7th "strong number" each won £666,000, with more than 100 people sharing smaller prizes.

The numbers that rolled out during a live television broadcast were 36, 33, 32, 26, 14, 13, and the additional 'strong' number 2. It didn't take long for some viewers to notice that these numbers were exactly the same as those drawn in the September 21st draw.

Israeli ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel ) radio station phone-ins were flooded with callers who suspected the draw was rigged"

Sorry i should read more careful what you wrote, you probably misunderstood me (my english needs improvement) i meant that a hand (lets say J 5), not two cards one by one, have exactly same probability of being dealt infinite number of times