hadbto rewrite everything, after realising, that your understand poker better than I expected (reading your older posts).
Flop c/r:
There are not even 5 players at Highstakes who are not overcbetting this spot. So I assume a Microstakes player will not come up with enough checks here. Based on that assumption, c/r the Flop with a wide Range becomes a sexy play, which is even more sexy when we can kick MP of equity (I think he is not folding 4 outs against 1 bb). Furthermore we don t need to Bet the Turn, all we need to do is to c/r FLop (where we are maybe even slightly Equity favorite against BU) and check most Turns. I will not tell you now how we play our Range here, but you shsuld see that we don t need to bet Turn after c/r Flop.
btw you are right if MP calls a hand like T8 here, than he makes a mistake, but I am not the player who is gaining EV, thats the BU. And even if my range gains EV, 76 is very unlikely to gain.
Turn as played (it goes check-check-check on flop, we bet) - when raised, reassess the situation. This is when you make the decision to call down, not OTR.
Thats not true (and I think you know it), also the reason why I have to rewrite the hwole thing, because after that sentence, I though you are not very good theory wise, which I saw is not true after reading your other posts. The only time it becomes true is when you know that Villain is overbluffing here and so you make an exploitiv calldown. Which doesn t seem to be your approach.
River as played - call whatever peels off. Don't try to become a wizard now, speculating about player styles. You get 10:1 and have a pair. Simple!
Call for sure is not terrible, but we are in a spot against an opponent, who is either overbluffing or underbluffing. Because noone below 30/60 has here a solid checking strategy on the flop. Which leads us to the conclusion I said in my first post. We are playing against 1 of 2 different strategies
- 1. If the line makes no sense or he is not repping much, he is slowplaying and just value heavy
- 2. If the line makes no sense, he is just stupid and doesn t realize how is own range looks and so he bluffs in stupid spots
If you think a random Villain is playing is playing more often than 10% of the time strategy 2. Then calling is fine. I personaly don t think so, thats the reason why I would fold, but I see when people do have a different oppinion.