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ATs OOP vs limper

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unknown opponent put dead blind PF. Is that better to x/f turn? Can i call river? How about i open 2ed fire on turn?

Poker Stars, $1/$2 Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Preflop: Hero is BB with T A
CO posts BB OOP, 2 folds, CO checks, 2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) 4 J 9 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

Turn: (3.3 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (5.3 BB) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

5.3 BB pot (0.2 BB rake)
Final Board: 4 J 9 6 5
CO mucked and won 5 BB (2.5 BB net)
Hero mucked T A and lost (-2.5 BB net)


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3 replies
firsttsunami
Joined: 23.01.2006

I would first check/call the Turn. Check/Fold is no option. It actually is but just with a read that he's checking his draws and just betting strong hands but i don't think you've yet picked such a read. Bet Turn is ok as well but River is a check/call. He didn't raise so he's not that likely to have Jx although he posted a blind and he might be a callingstation who is not raising Jx but just calling it but consider all the busted Draws you might catch up on the River. QT Q8 QT KT KQ, busted :heart: Draw etc.

Many beginners undervalue Ax on the River and especially on such a drawheavy Board, you should check/call River. Especially since passive players frequently do not bet thin for value but often check behind a hand like 97. This fact makes his range relatively bluffheavy and given 1:7 you should call. :)


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Sorry about spewing in all threads, but I have a new toy I can't resist playing around with.

I played around with the Combonator. Assuming he raises his preflop post with a very tight CO open raise, then assuming he folds trash on the flop, the result becomes surprisingly dominated by trashy made hands on the turn. Edit:I assume too he isn't raising flop with anything. (I assume he'd slowplay what he perceives as monsters, like J9. This goes well together with a poster.)

Combonator Output combonator.com
Board: 4 :heart: J :diamond: 9 :heart: 6 :club:
Vs Hero Cards: A :diamond: T :diamond:

Entire range: 451 | Hero EQ 26.00%

[b]  Grouped[/b]:  397 combos  88.0% | Hero EQ 17.56%
[b]Ungrouped[/b]:   54 combos  12.0% | Hero EQ 88.0%

  [b]Group 1[/b]:  341 combos  85.9% (75.6% total) | Hero EQ 9.03%
  [b]Group 2[/b]:   56 combos  14.1% (12.4% total) | Hero EQ 69.48%

[b]Group 1[/b]: Pair, two pair, set / trips

44 (3), 33-22, A4s (3), A6o, A4o (9), K9s (3), K4s (3), K9o (6),
K4o (6), Q9s (3), Qh6h, Q4s (3), QJo (9), Q9o (9), Q4o (9), JTs
(3), J9s (2), J8s (3), J7s (2), J6s (3), J5s (3), J4s (2), J3s
(3), J2s (3), JTo (9), J9o (7), J8o (9), J7o (7), J6o (9), J5o
(9), J4o (7), J3o (9), J2o (9), T9s (3), Th6h, T4s (3), T9o (9),
T4o (9), 98s (3), 97s (2), 96s (3), 95s (3), 94s (3), 93s (3),
92s (3), 98o (9), 97o (7), 96o (9), 95o (9), 94o (6), 93o (9),
92o (9), 8h6h, 84s (3), 84o (9), 7h6h, 74s (2), 74o (7), 6h5h,
64s (3), 6h3h, 6h2h, 64o (9), 54s (3), 54o (9), 43s (3), 42s (3),
43o (9), 42o (9)

[b]Group 2[/b]: Open-ended, flush draw

Ah3h, Ah2h, QTs, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh5h, Qh3h, Qh2h, QTo, T8s, Th7h,
Th5h, Th3h, Th2h, T8o, 87s (3), 8h5h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 87o (9), 7h5h,
7h3h, 7h2h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 3h2h

The given your turn bet, I again removed his complete trash. Resulting river equity 10%.

(Edit: It is still a check-call on the river. He is probably not betting stuff like 4x, 5x, 6x but will be bluffing some.)

/Johan = :f_confused:


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zereles11
Joined: 27.03.2013

There are players who bluff a lot on the river, others are super nit checking behind 2nd pairs and most of stand between these 2 extremes, with absolute no reads or stats i feel speculating on this spot, c/c most times, c/f some.


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