defend BB with KJo

Tough spot. I think c/c is ok, I think he's not going to fold any better hand (only KQ maybe), but you'll get bluffraised a lot by JT, QT, basically any 7x and Tx, and will have a hard time as he'll fire the river as well.

With c/c you show him that you have a hand that's like to go to the showdown, so he might bet the turn and then when he sees you calling, will maybe check back the river with JT, QT, QJ, Tx, 7x.

So I lean towards c/c turn, c/f river unimproved.

With strong Ax it's different, as there's now more value vs any Kx and weaker Ax. So I think AJ+ I'd play bet/calldown, but with weaker Ax probably the same as with KJ - c/c. Actually you don't have much weak Ax in your range there.

I hope it helped, I won't mark it as judged as it's a difficult and interesting spot

edit: as played, I think you have to c/c the river as he might just have any gutshot in his range that took a free card on the turn

hello

firsttsunami or Boomer2k10 or Dawnfall26 can you evaluate my hand please

To be honest: I think check/folding the Turn is ok as well since you can't peel on your Outs. WIth a gutshot , lets say board is T95, i'd rather peel obviously but you just get 1:6 and you may have just 3-4 Outs on K and J. Certainly he may fire you off the best Hand when he's betting QT JT but most of his hands include some pair. Consider that BU's Range nails a board with 689x and you would also check/call with Ax type of hands and therefore he may not go for a semibluffbet but just bets for value. You have your hand balanced and KJ is almost the worst hand you could have in this situation so i don't mind playing check/fold although, if he's betting a lot on the Turn, it's exploitable but if you also check/call with KJ you don't have any Hand to play c/f with. KJ is the bottom of your checkingrange so i'd just put it in the muck or if you c/c Turn then i do c/c River as well since the turncall can just be based on the hope that he's bluffing with a weaker hand.

But it's a tough spot and i'm going to forward the thread to another competent handevaluator! Sorry that it has taken so long!

no problem thanks

But it's a tough spot and i'm going to forward the thread to another competent handevaluator

im going wait thanks very much

makinazero

Sorry for the delay. skype delivered the message from firsttsunami not until today.

I fiddled around a little with equilab. When I have to give BU a range I think he calls on the flop something like Ax, any pair, 2 overcards, any draw (including gutshots), some weak draws like overcard + 2 backdoor draws. This is reasonable because your range essentially missed the flop and he has good pot odds. Maybe he folds some small aces because they are likely dominated. This gives

Board: 6♦2♠9♣ 8♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     72.37%  70.63%   1.74% { 88-33, ATs-A6s, A2s, K9s+, K6s, K2s, Q9s+, Q6s, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, Kd8d, Ks8s, Kc8c, Qd8d, Qs8s, Qc8c, Jd8d, Js8s, Jc8c, Kd7d, Ks7s, Kc7c, Qd7d, Qs7s, Qc7c, Jd7d, Js7s, Jc7c, AJo-A6o, A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }
BB     27.63%  25.88%   1.74% { KsJh }

on the turn. Your equity is pretty bad. If you check I would think that mostly better hands would bet. There isn't much value for him to bluff because your range contains a lot of Aces which you are not likely to fold (any ace in your range has an equity greater than 40%).

If you bet, how many hands can he fold? There are some hands he does not have a draw with. These are KJ+, QJ and perhaps AJ if he didn't cap it preflop. This is 30 combinations he can fold from a total of 292 combinations. I don't think he would fold AJ, because it has showdown value. This amounts to a foldequity of 10%. You may get a raise with most pairs and some draws. This would be a large part of his range, maybe 65%. You can't call this, but for the rest of the 35% you have pretty clean outs. Something like 5 discounted outs. 35% * 5/46 is ~ 4% equity. Most of the hands that would call a bet would be better hands so you don't have much equity on the river if the opponent calls and you are unimproved.

So a bet is worth 14% equity and on 4% you have implied odds of perhaps 0,5 BB.

10% * 4,25 BB + 4% * 4,75 BB ~ 0,6 BB

Clearly a bet costs you more than it wins.

So cf turn is the answer. This isn't so bad because you will get a free card some of the time. If the turn goes check/check you might call a bet on the river. This depends on the card on the river. T, 7, 5 are bad cards.