[FR] TT, donkbet

Hi,

Well I think that the 6 is a worst card for you than the 7 because it complete some draws, the donk on the river looks like BB is betting a weak hand afraid that you could check behind with overpairs.

And if the 7 was a , I think its hard but given the pot odds (1:8,2 = 1/8,2+1 = 10%, am i ok??) but BB could bluff or bet with a weak hand enough to make it profitable to call.

When he bets on the river, then you are getting 8:1 to call. From his perspective, the odds against him bluffing should be 8:1 too. This is assuming that he is bluffing with an unexploitable frequency.

One interesting aspect is this: Suppose that your hand can beat every bluffing hand, but no other hands whatsoever, and suppose too that your opponent bluffs exactly one time in nine here. Then what? The answer is that it doesn't matter what you do. It doesn't matter at all.

Another interesting aspect is that if he knew that you will fold more than one time in nine here, then he can bet profitably in this spot every time. Conversely, if you fold, say, one time in twelve here - and he knew of that, then he should never bluff.

In this case, if you use your cards to randomize your calldowns of possible bluffs (which is not a bad idea), then that overpair is nowhere near the bottom 11.11...% of your "showdownable" hands here. Would you fold AA? Probably not, but AA has only a tiny bit more showdown value than TT here.

One more thing. If the opponent is holding a pair here then betting and folding to a raise may not be that bad a play on his part. If his options are "check-call" and "bet-fold", then "bet-fold" may be better for him because the board isn't very inviting for a thin value bet in position on your part because you would need some 65% equity if called. He doesn't need much equity at all to make the bet. He needs only be sure that he wouldn't be folding to a bet from you, and be fairly sure that you wouldn't bet a worse hand. This perhaps sounds murky, but suppose that you have AK/AQ and the board is slightly less threatening and the pot is slightly bigger. Would you fold? Hardly. Would you bet if checked to? Hardly. Would you raise him as a bluff? Hardly.

A good reference is "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky. It's quite boring to read, but it is very very correct.

/Johan =

@akasoul: I think you are correct. Opponent was taggish player and he could most certainly make some moves. Tbh his hand was a big surprise for me and I made a note of that.

Thanks Yohan, that's a very well thought out post. A lot to absorb.

Actually the card does not matter. You should not start doing tough folds on donkbets. Especially not on a board like this. So many draws missed there. You could consider folding if the board was really dry, it was a 3bet pot and your opponent did check/call twice and when the ace came, he donks out. But as yohan well mentioned it makes no difference between AA and TT and AA is top of your range as well as TT is. You would fold almost everything, given you'd fold TT in that spot. Yuo got 9:1 and Donk is most of the times a busted draw or a weak pair. With trips he'd be more likely to checkraise the River. Even with AQ AK i would call the River against T8 JT K8 Q8 J8, busted

Knowing now that his donkbets are quite weak you could even consider raising over calling.