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JJ after pre cap should I fold turn?

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pcbeem
Joined: 16.07.2008

I am following Sailer from the Dutch forum because our FL board is quite quiet :f_cool:.

My first one, I am a bit in doubt and I think I should have folded this hand on turn, am I correct?

Stats villian: VPIP 20 PFR 12 3-bet 5.7 AF 2.1 WTSD 54 and W$SD 45; 1.5K hands, so stats are ok and kinda TAG.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
3 folds, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls

Flop: (8.4 SB) Q 4 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.2 BB) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls

River: (7.2 BB) T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls

Results:

Spoiler

9.2 BB pot (0.4 BB rake)
Final Board: Q 4 Q K T
Hero mucked J J and lost (-4.5 BB net)
MP2 showed K K and won 8.8 BB (4.3 BB net)


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12 replies
Sailer85
Joined: 15.10.2009

Jep fold the turn, assuming his cap range =/= 3bet range. There is only a few hands he could have. 99-AA, AK, AQ. of those you only beat 99, TT. vs the rest of his range you are a very big underdog.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I expect he would check 99-TT on turn with a K on turn. So I expect you will be always beat here.


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Sailer85
Joined: 15.10.2009

He is quite agressive so he could 2barrel something like that here, possibly.

@ PCbeem Did you check his cap % during the hand?


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pcbeem
Joined: 16.07.2008

Nope but I noticed his 3-bet was not very high


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Sailer85
Joined: 15.10.2009

about half his PFR range... so quite a large part of his range.


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Underbluffing
Joined: 12.10.2014

fold turn and definatly fold river, from an pseude GTO approach you are at the bottom of you range (=fold), from an exploitiv appraoch he never has enough bluffs compared to his AK+ valuebets. From an "GTO" approach interesting spot and also easy fold.


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pcbeem
Joined: 16.07.2008

GTO means?


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Sailer85
Joined: 15.10.2009

Game Theory Optimal. Mostly it means you have to study more ;)

No it relates to a optimalisation of poker theory by creating an optimum equilibrium (at least in theory) were you try to play in such a way that your game is unexploitable by villains.
Meaning that what ever option villain chooses he makes no more money then when he chooses a different option. The problem with GTO is that it is not (yet) an exact science for poker due to the complexity of the problems.
If you want to know more about it check-out the video series: Decision Making
The concept is quite simple, the execution far more difficult and needs quite a bit of time.

Having said al this, you can now forget all of it. At your stakes you should focus on exploiting villains instead of GTO. You should only use GTO when playing (Very) good opponents, so when you start playing 1/2 you should have a grip/some knowlegde of the concept. At the micros most of your villains will (like you) never have heard of it, let alone understand or successfully apply it.

If you plan to move up then you should look at the theory, it is very interesting and fun to start working with it.... if you like to learn.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

GTO is indeed not easy. But you can try out to play heads-up against Cepheus. It plays perfect (for all human purposes) GTO.


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fapaja
Joined: 29.05.2009

Oh, I miss FLHE when reading this...
Fold turn.


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Moderator
pcbeem
Joined: 16.07.2008

Originally posted by Sailer85
Game Theory Optimal. Mostly it means you have to study more ;)

I can only spend each minute once :) :)


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Sailer85
Joined: 15.10.2009

Just cut back on non-essentials like work, social interactions, eating, sleeping....:f_tongue:


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