This week in the FL Silver coaching a marginal hand came up with lots of decisions.
$0.25/$0.5 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6:c, 7:s.
MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.
- The limper is a roughly 60/10 over a very small sample of hands. The PFR is raising roughly 30% of the time in this situation over a significant sample (more than 120 hands).
- I estimated that the required equity to call was no more than 23% given that the limper very often just calls and so we're usually getting 5.4:1 with poor position.
- I defend the BB with roughly 25% equity against their hand ranges.
Flop: (6.4 SB) 4:h, 8:h, 7:d (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO calls.
- I flop 2nd pair+ a GSSD. My kicker is weak and there are many draws present. Assuming the FPR c-bets near 100% of the time I have roughly 44% equity against their percieved hand ranges. When I check/raise I get value from their hand range and I can sometimes represent draws and get good value from the PFR's AX range or from the limpers weak made hands.
Turn: (6.2 BB) 7:h (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, CO folds, Hero calls.
- I turn trip 7s and the limper raises on a 3flush 3straight paired board. He represents a hand which is stronger than mine but I cannot fold. I'm getting ~8:1 to call which would be enough with only 5 outs. Against a flush I have 10 outs. Against a better 7 I have discounted straight outs (~3.5) and can hit a boat. Occasionally he has 87 or another hand which has me in trouble but its not likely. I can easily call here and should clal most river cards given the outside chance that he has just a strong draw or a worse made hand (like slow played KK or AA)
River: (10.2 BB) 5:h (2 players)
Hero checks (to call)
- I river my straight but it brings a 4flush board. In this spot check/calling is best. I now beat his range of stronger 7x when he didn't have a flush draw. I beat some draws (but very few). The pot is large and we only need to win 10% of the time to profit here in the long run against his river betting range.
