33 BBvsBTN

Originally posted by yangmartins
This is almost a coincidence, as today I've been studying some equities BB vs BTN.
Small to medium pairs are something I won't say I struggle with, but discarding the ones that find a set, I'm probably even.

So, taking this specific hand:

1- call vs 3bet BB vs BTN. Appreciate oppinions and arguments.
2- Flop line. Appreciate arguments also.
3- At the end you'll find an equilab scenario analyser for turn. I don't really understand why 2s and As are good for our hand, against villain range. I'd place a lot more As than Js (e.g) in villain range. IS it only because As give us a GS?

In the specific hand shown, I like the flat call pre, but with pocket 3s, any random card in BTN's hand that matches the flop (or later on the turn) leaves you with two outs. I don't like the raise OTF. There may be better that fold, but certainly no worse will call.

I am surprised that Equilab shows such good equity, and yes, the deuces 5s and 9s give us two pair, and when the board pairs, it becomes less likely that opponent has that card. 5s give us an open-ender, and sixes and aces give us a gutshot

Personally I would just let this go.

Set-mining with small to mid pocket pairs used to be profitable because you could get stacks but players lately don't seem to want to commit their entire stack on top-pair-top-kicker type hands.

It's interesting why you are raising the flop. You can also 3bet pre-flop. 33 isn't playing well post-flop and is strong enough to try to win the hand right away.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Set-mining with small to mid pocket pairs used to be profitable because you could get stacks but players lately don't seem to want to commit their entire stack on top-pair-top-kicker type hands.

Unless you playing like Yang, I think its hard to make decent profit at the micros, and you right, players don't stack off easily with top pair type hands (unless you me).
This play puts a lot of pressure on 66,77,88, 9x and over cards that might have a back door.

I can't make an argument for not folding this hand in any step of the way.
This was interesting for me, as I was also surprised by the equity this hand has on a flop without broadways and "unfiltered" villain range. If it had happened 2/3 days ago, I'd likely let it go easy.

I will try to go through the thinking process, street by street, and would appreciate you point the flaws.

PF
Considering BTN stndard OR, we are:

       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     51.74%  51.17%   0.57% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BB     48.26%  47.68%   0.57% { 3h3s }

Raising here will transform it to something like:

       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     54.98%  54.22%   0.75% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K7s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
BB     45.02%  44.27%   0.75% { 3h3s }

So, basically, in my interpretation, we would be getting 3%FE by narrowing villain range, that would translate in equity loss.
(I don't know if I can assume the FE to be the % of villain range villain would drop to a 3bet).
Adding on the above, unless we hit a 3 OTF, there would be no "easy" way to play:

A flop with broadway cards will "force" us to range CBet into the same range villain call us with.
A "low" flop like this we have low to no FE and on the 50% equity border, we need it.

Flop
Now, keeping villain range, this flop and basically any without broadway cards [1] we have a quite nice equity:

Board: 9♥2♥4♠
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     45.84%  45.71%   0.13% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BB     54.16%  54.02%   0.13% { 3h3s }

But, there are no runouts that we like. Meaning we have a fair amount of equity, but we will have an hard time realizing it. This is why I opted for the check raise. I think the check/raise will grant me more FE than any other action here. I accept I can be very wrong here.
Ofc, if we are called, we just have to say goodbye to the pot, as our equity against calling hands would be something like:

Board: 9♥2♥4♠
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     79.43%  79.43%   0.00% { TT+, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 4d4h, 4d4c, 4h4c, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ad9d, As9s, Ac9c, Kd9d, Ks9s, Kc9c, Qd9d, Qs9s, Qc9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Jc9c, Td9d, Ts9s, Tc9c, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9d8d, 9s8s, 9c8c, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Qh6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Kh5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Ad9s, Ad9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah9c, As9d, As9c, Ac9d, Ac9s, Kd9s, Kd9c, Kh9d, Kh9s, Kh9c, Ks9d, Ks9c, Kc9d, Kc9s, Qd9s, Qd9c, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qh9c, Qs9d, Qs9c, Qc9d, Qc9s, Jd9s, Jd9c, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9d, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9s, Td9s, Td9c, Th9d, Th9s, Th9c, Ts9d, Ts9c, Tc9d, Tc9s }
BB     20.57%  20.57%   0.00% { 3h3s }

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
With his 3bet call range:

Board: 9♥2♥4♠
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     45.14%  44.91%   0.23% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K7s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
BB     54.86%  54.63%   0.23% { 3h3s }

If we had 3betted I think we would have a more difficult spot to navigate, specailly because we wouldn't be able to represent anything in a board that "is good for us", but terrible for our perceived range.
We wouldn't have more equity, I doubt we would have more FE (actually think is the opposite) and we would have a bigger pot (thus difficul to play).

[1] Actually surprising equities from low pocket pairs on textures like this. I reccomend you run some experiences in equilab.
It surprised me the 45% to 55% equity situations one lands in, that imo are spots where we should apply some pressure to realize our equity and deny villain's, specially on micros. If facing resistence, fold.

Not sure if it added anything else to the discussion.

If we had 3betted I think we would have a more difficult spot to navigate, specailly because we wouldn't be able to represent anything in a board that "is good for us", but terrible for our perceived range.

This makes so much sense.