UTG: $58.50
Hero (MP): $50.75
CO: $62.35
BTN: $58.25
SB: $108.10
BB: $40.00
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q♦ Q♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($5.75) T♣ 8♦ 4♦ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4, SB folds
Turn: ($13.75) 9♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $9.50, CO calls $9.50
River: ($32.75) 8♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $18, CO raises to $36, Hero folds
Only read I have is this
Knowing this I thought to have a thin but easy valuebet on the river when the 8 counterfeits T9 and makes some sets less likely, especially 88.
Assumption 1: I don't think such a player will bluff in a 65BB pot on the river, when I give him the chance to. He will more often check back Tx and J9 9x kind of hands.
Assumption 2: He will never turn JJ,AT,KT into a bluff when I bet the river.
What I think he has:
Flop
My flop equity vs this range 79%.
Turn
My turn equity vs this range 75%.
River is the same as turn except he'll fold all the underpairs without draws, all the 2nd/3rd pairs and all overcards without oesd+. I discounted some non-nutflushes in combinations.
My river equity vs this range 65%.
The calling/shoving range I give him is this
against which i have 53% equity.
