AA on wet board

On the flop interesting enough, some of villains spade draws have pairs that I don't know would want to raise the flop. Hands like A♠:J♠:, K♠:J♠:, J♠:T♠: all have pairs that I think most players would use them for showdown value and just call the flop correct?
Maybe at 2nl we can include all of these hands in the flop raising range since alot of players bet these hands ?

If villain bets this range on the turn we have 43% equity to call. Thoughts?

I think you made mistake by cbetting flop. I would prefer there to x/c or maybe x/r. Yes, even against fish as I expect him to bet too often board like this with hands he should checkback.

As played I think I wouldnt be able to fold turn yet after he bets only half pot on turn - that could be sign that he is merging Qx/Jx and so we have more hands we beats with our pocket aces.

On the flop interesting enough, some of villains spade draws have pairs that I don't know would want to raise the flop

Why not? Notice that for example KJ/JT are combodraws with huge equity that dont mind building pot.

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
I think you made mistake by cbetting flop. I would prefer there to x/c or maybe x/r. Yes, even against fish as I expect him to bet too often board like this with hands he should checkback.

As played I think I wouldnt be able to fold turn yet after he bets only half pot on turn - that could be sign that he is merging Qx/Jx and so we have more hands we beats with our pocket aces.

On the flop interesting enough, some of villains spade draws have pairs that I don't know would want to raise the flop

Why not? Notice that for example KJ/JT are combodraws with huge equity that dont mind building pot.

ok. thanks for reply. what do you mean by merging?

By merging I mean that I think his relatively small sizing indicates that he wants to bet also medium strength hands like one pairs. Its actually good for you because you beat all Qx/Jx so there is another reason why you should call.

It's a tough spot for sure. To bad we don't have any info on the villain in this hand. Against a passive villain I wouldn't mind the Cbet on flop for value and protection.

Turn I would most likely call and her-evaluate the river. Tough to fold AA post-flop with still draws in villains range.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I think you played it well (although I would have bet a bit more on the flop).

I probably would have called the bet on the turn and see what the river brings.
OTR - I'd check-call most hands that aren't a :spade:,:Kx:,:Tx:, or :8x:., knowing that I'm losing to 2 pair sometimes, but often seeing a hand like KQ or QT...

Be carefull taking my advice, but I think this is a clear fold on the flop vs almost all opponents. Either he has you beat now or he has tons of equity against your hand. I think calling out of position here is just losing monies since you have to play 2 more streets oop.

Either he:
- has you beat now
- he is going to have you beat a large majority of the time
- is bluffing, which means he is capable of aggression which makes it likely he will bluff again if you play weak (which you have to).

So if you are calling you are just hoping he doesn't catch up, will not turn a semidraw into a bluff, or he will not continue his pure bluffs. Which is all a bit happy thinking. I think.

This flop smacks right into CO calling range as much as it can. So x-c flop and go from there to avoid this spot we are now. That way you also have some hands in your check range that can take some heat.

I would not necessarily think of any balance reasoning in checking but mainly that this board is not favourable for our hand and it can evolve in multitude of nasty ways. So I would prefer to play medium sized pot.

Problem in call versus raise is that what cards we want to see on turn? Kind of bad ones are K, Q, T, 8 and spade. J, 9 and 2-7 non spade are ok. As is ok and Ah is only one we love. Still behind of KT which is heavily in villain range. Especially as villain has not waited for BB either so unlikely reggy player. That might also mean villain has all sort of stuff in preflop range but without any data we don't have any idea.

So ultimately 5d is one of best cards we can get which make turn fold pretty bad. When villain raise flop like this his plan is not usually to shutdown on turn imo. If that is case our plan should be to continue most of time on blank turns. Otherwise flop call is quite sketchy and we just hope villain is shutting down.

But yeah you guys have much better information of pool tendencies. Do they overvalue top pairs often in this spot? Well I have been in this sort of spots lot in sng side and you give credit for villain and he shows Q7o

Originally posted by ghaleon
But yeah you guys have much better information of pool tendencies. Do they overvalue top pairs often in this spot?

Yes... and top pair with any kind of draw is the nuts.