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AA vs set

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TH1950
Joined: 20.11.2014

I have 176 hand sample with villain. His stats 20/17 and he folded to 3bet 2 times. I have notes that he played turn draw aggresiveliy once,and raised flop w/Overpair and less.
On first thought I think this is a tilted call, and obvious fold. But then I put some number it confuses me.
On flop when villain goes all in I need 37% for BE call.
Against TT,66,55 I am obviously underdog 8%, but if I put to his all in range QQ,JJ I am ahead 56% to 44%.
Question is, when I am reviewing hands how do I put villains range more precise?
Your thoughts?
Thank you in advance

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 291 BB
UTG: 123.6 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 206.6 BB
BTN: 139.2 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♠ A♦

fold, MP raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, MP calls 8.6 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) T♠ 5♦ 6♥
Hero bets 14.6 BB, MP raises to 89 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 74.4 BB and is all-in

Turn: (201 BB, 2 players) 8♥

River: (201 BB, 2 players) 5♥

MP cashed out 173.6 BB for a fee of 1.8 BB

Hero shows A♠ A♦ (Two Pair, Aces and Fives)

MP shows 6♣ 6♦ (Full House, Sixes full of Fives)


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7 replies
TH1950
Joined: 20.11.2014

Question is

.

If villain range in this situation when he goes all in is only sets (TT,55 or 66) then I did mistake by calling. But if he would do that with QQ,JJ also( with AA,KK he would 4bet preflop) then my call is good.
So when i review hands how to know what range is more likely, when having small sample on villain?


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Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006

more precise?

you cant stare him in the eyes, and tell wether he is bluffing or not. you are no jedi.

you have to do the math.


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TH1950
Joined: 20.11.2014

Originally posted by Pokamon

more precise?

you cant stare him in the eyes, and tell wether he is bluffing or not. you are no jedi.

you have to do the math.

That is my question how to do math in this case. Is his range QQ,JJ,TT,66,55 or TT,66,55? Why am i always misunderstood in life. Probably I am the problem LOL.
How do I do math for this hand?


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Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006

glad, you asked:

first you calculate autoprofit: invest / pot + invest = 89 / 126,6 = 70,3 %

his play generates autoprofit, when you fold more than 70,3 % of your range. so you have to defend the top 29,7% of your range.

now you just have to check, if your holding is in there, or not.

for any other approach you would need specific reads, pool tendencies or the force.


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Originally posted by TH1950

Originally posted by Pokamon

more precise?

you cant stare him in the eyes, and tell wether he is bluffing or not. you are no jedi.

you have to do the math.

That is my question how to do math in this case. Is his range QQ,JJ,TT,66,55 or TT,66,55? Why am i always misunderstood in life. Probably I am the problem LOL.
How do I do math for this hand?

It's played fine.

Hands like 55 or 66 may or may not be in villains range or possibly even mixing between calls and folds and hands like QQ KK AA can play as either 4bet or calls.If you want to expand ranges if villain has 55 66 then they might have 87s an oesd+bdfd on the flop which is bluffing maybe 98s which is a gs+bdfd.There are lots of variables so keep it as simple as possible and keep the decisions easy.If you plug all the sets in which are possible and all over pairs which are possible you have 64% equity the rest isnt going to change the equity that greatly.

Use a default range for mp say 20 ish percent

and say villain defends somewhere around 40% ip

You can add a few combos or take a few combos out i dont think it changes it that much. Then just ask your self out of that range which hands are possible for villain to do this with ?. 55 66 TT yes JJ QQ KK AA yes other hands like T9s unlikely but depending on your image their image and table dynamics etc... etc...

But generally if you cant rule a hand out dont rule it out plug it in equilab build a range and see the equity vs the range you build.And see how it looks vs tighter ranges and vs some looser ranges maybe plug in vs 30% defending range or 50% and use your info on villain.

Lets say i think villain 4bets AA 100% of the time and i take that out villain can have the following hands,

So i can see vs any type of range villain has my call is going to be good "unless i know villain only ever shoves sets here".


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Originally posted by Pokamon
glad, you asked:

first you calculate autoprofit: invest / pot + invest = 89 / 126,6 = 70,3 %

his play generates autoprofit, when you fold more than 70,3 % of your range. so you have to defend the top 29,7% of your range.

now you just have to check, if your holding is in there, or not.

for any other approach you would need specific reads, pool tendencies or the force.

And thats the maths bit that im terrible at :f_thumbsup:


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