Can I fold this river?

NAoise

Joined: 08.06.2020

Posts: 110

19.11.2021, 04:14 0

SB: 95.5 BB
BB: 177 BB
UTG: 94 BB
Hero (CO): 117.5 BB
BTN: 113.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♣ Q♠

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 3 players) 9♥ 6♠ 8♦
BB bets 12 BB, UTG calls 12 BB, Hero raises to 38 BB, BB calls 26 BB, fold

Turn: (100.5 BB, 2 players) 2♥
BB checks, Hero bets 48 BB, BB calls 48 BB

River: (196.5 BB, 2 players) 5♠
BB bets 87 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 27.5 BB and is all-in

BB shows 7♠ A♥ (Straight, Nine High)
(Pre 28%, Flop 40%, Turn 25%)
Hero shows Q♣ Q♠ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 72%, Flop 60%, Turn 75%)
BB wins 242.5 BB

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3 replies

SDK1987

Moderator

Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,990

19.11.2021, 13:20 0

If you would shove the turn you doesn't have a decision anymore. You have less than a pot size bet left.

As played river is a really bad card, but with the sick odds it's tough to fold.

Cheers,
SDK1987

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LMcrow

Joined: 15.08.2006

Posts: 781

19.11.2021, 13:50 0

As played i would just shove turn with 100 bbs already in pot.

He can call his open ender +ev with implied odds here as played, its close tho.

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VorpalF2F

Super Moderator

Joined: 02.09.2010

Posts: 45,199

19.11.2021, 19:58 0

Originally posted by LMcrow
As played i would just shove turn with 100 bbs already in pot.

He can call his open ender +ev with implied odds here as played, its close tho.

OTOH, shoving just folds out worse -- but definitely bet the turn strongly

Here's what Equilab says...

Board: 8♦9♥6♠ 2♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    18.21%  17.85%   0.36% { 55+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
CO     63.36%  63.21%   0.14% { QsQc }
BB     18.43%  18.22%   0.22% { 66-22, A8s-A2s, K2s+, Q3s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, A9o-A2o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o }

I used a 25% range for UTG and a typical BB call vs CO range

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