Easy or difficult crying fold?

For me this is an fold. Don't see villain raising with less then a set. He does have a lot of low and middle pairs in his calling range. When he has an overpair I see him raising on flop or turn. Question is what hands do you beat that would raise you OTR. In my opinion the only hands that would raise the river are higher sets that beat us.

Seems like a fold to me. He has a lot of slowplayed sets and some straights. Also you bet big on the river so you look strong and don't induce any bluffs. The only hands you might beat are 67s/78s but they will usually just call on this board.

Interesting. I expect better sets to raise flop/turn in most cases. T9 and 54 would also sometimes raise the turn. Then, the important thing is that he raised our very big bet, so he is most likelly not bluffing. So, overall, I think calling would not be terrible with 21% pot odds, but I also vote for folding with the bottom set.

It is very hard to fold a set but in this case eith better sets and straights possible, it is not a mistake. Most 2P would raise earlier too. Good fold, imo.

I think villain should have raised 2 pairs, straights and sets earlier. He still can have one of those or then he is full of shit. Folding is fine but I don't blame you if you called.

I am calling here getting 4:1 and expect to lose.

I agree with Yohan. I'd be calling given the price but be expecting to lose. If you win then make some notes on Villain.

He has 17 realistic value combos (T9s, 54s, 88, 77, 66) and that means he needs very few bluff combos to make this +EV.

That being said, what bluff combos does he have? Maybe Ah4h? Maybe he's valuecutting himself with 87s (of which there are only two combos)?

Too many maybes for me. I think this is one of those spots where you dance through hoops to avoid folding a set getting a great price, but at the end of the day you're facing a nutted range.

Originally posted by kriko92
Also you bet big on the river so you look strong and don't induce any bluffs.

That was the main argument for me to think folding is better than calling.

Originally posted by stompy91
I agree with Yohan. I'd be calling given the price but be expecting to lose. If you win then make some notes on Villain.

Makes sense. Its not an horrible play at all since u have the price, the gain on info and such.
But, in general... this raise is way way value heavy. And value, here, beats us.

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by stompy91
I agree with Yohan. I'd be calling given the price but be expecting to lose. If you win then make some notes on Villain.

Makes sense. Its not an horrible play at all since u have the price, the gain on info and such.
But, in general... this raise is way way value heavy. And value, here, beats us.

Sure. What I meant is that it takes a read to fold. Perhaps a population read is good enough, I can't say, but versus good balanced players, capable of exploitation too, it is a call. They can easily turn a typical calling/folding hand (e.g Q♥:Q♣: or 9♠:7♠: ) into a river bluff raise if they know that you are unbalanced (fold sets to small raises).

A population read is good enough to know that an NL2 player isn't turning an overpair into a bluff.

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by stompy91
I agree with Yohan. I'd be calling given the price but be expecting to lose. If you win then make some notes on Villain.

Makes sense. Its not an horrible play at all since u have the price, the gain on info and such.
But, in general... this raise is way way value heavy. And value, here, beats us.

Sure. What I meant is that it takes a read to fold. Perhaps a population read is good enough, I can't say, but versus good balanced players, capable of exploitation too, it is a call. They can easily turn a typical calling/folding hand (e.g Q♥:Q♣: or 9♠:7♠: ) into a river bluff raise if they know that you are unbalanced (fold sets to small raises).

I have to say, ur post was beautiful... for bigger stakes.
If a NL2 player thinks at this level when playing, he ll be at NL2 for just two weeks, at most ♠_tongue: